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  • #17,341
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:04am Aug 1, 2008 10:04am
Quoting Jurrasic
I have a few small longs near 56 and one tiny still from 658. I see no reason to close any of them though, my sl is at 495. This thing will either go up or down and even if it's down I'll cover up for the loss in less than 100 pips fall, which would in such case probably be at least 200 till about 53. Plus I scalped a bit today on GU and EU. Patience man.

Dukeman,
London session starts at 10am for me and NY at 3pm. End of NY is ussualy boring anyway.. So I've got it pretty comfortable I think, for EU aspecially.
thanks man i appreciate this cos i always have longs at 1.5602 and 1.5610 so i hope to leave them till next week or possibly today
  • #17,342
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:07am Aug 1, 2008 10:07am
Quoting acumen

Are we reading the same new reports??
I've been repeatedly fascinated in the past 2 days how much attention people give to relatively small things while they seem to ignore the fact that they got a year+ old trendline on the charts that the WHOLE market sees and minds (at least anybody trading with a few lots and up and not just for fun). We now had a second attempt at it and although there was a brief penetration of about 15 pips it's still in tact. Also you have stuff like oil, gold, UJ, AU, NU and some others ready to bounce for a nice run closer to preious highs. But it doesn't even matter, shorting above the line is asking for a stop loss as I se it. News reports.. they come and they go and soon forgotten..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,343
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:19am Aug 1, 2008 10:19am
Quoting Jurrasic
I've been repeatedly fascinated in the past 2 days how much attention people give to relatively small things while they seem to ignore the fact that they got a year+ old trendline on the charts that the WHOLE market sees and minds (at least anybody trading with a few lots and up and not just for fun). We now had a second attempt at it and although there was a brief penetration of about 15 pips it's still in tact. Also you have stuff like oil, gold, UJ, AU, NU and some others ready to bounce for a nice run closer to preious highs. But it doesn't even matter, shorting above the line is asking for a stop loss as I se it. News reports.. they come and they go and soon forgotten..
Point taken.
  • #17,344
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:31am Aug 1, 2008 10:31am
Quoting Jurrasic
I've been repeatedly fascinated in the past 2 days how much attention people give to relatively small things while they seem to ignore the fact that they got a year+ old trendline on the charts that the WHOLE market sees and minds (at least anybody trading with a few lots and up and not just for fun). We now had a second attempt at it and although there was a brief penetration of about 15 pips it's still in tact. Also you have stuff like oil, gold, UJ, AU, NU and some others ready to bounce for a nice run closer to preious highs. But it doesn't even matter, shorting above the line is asking for a stop loss as I se it. News reports.. they come and they go and soon forgotten..
nice said,...i might add,..if u really need to be short, go short eur/aud,....and help bring things back in order..short usd, and jen with all u got...
its just money
  • #17,345
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:37am Aug 1, 2008 10:37am
Quoting Jurrasic
I've been repeatedly fascinated in the past 2 days how much attention people give to relatively small things while they seem to ignore the fact that they got a year+ old trendline on the charts that the WHOLE market sees and minds (at least anybody trading with a few lots and up and not just for fun). We now had a second attempt at it and although there was a brief penetration of about 15 pips it's still in tact. Also you have stuff like oil, gold, UJ, AU, NU and some others ready to bounce for a nice run closer to preious highs. But it doesn't even matter, shorting above the line is asking for a stop loss as I se it. News reports.. they come and they go and soon forgotten..
POST OF THE YEAR SO FAR IMHO.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #17,346
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:41am Aug 1, 2008 10:41am
SHORT, SHORT, SHORT!!

FORGET ABOUT BOTTOM TRENDLINE, 1.5515 WILL BE WIPE OUT.

To go long for some long pips, only at 1.5470, then 1.5400 it is not good round number to hold, the best level to long is 1.5340.

Today will close around 1.5550/60.

Strategy: Short if price go to 1.5604 SL 1.5634
If Today price breaks again 1.5540, go for it, 1.5470 is waiting for you.

GL
  • #17,347
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:47am Aug 1, 2008 10:47am
We are stuck between 1.5583 and 1.5535. I am waiting on a candle to close above or below on 30min before my entry. Maybe this afternoon the market will wake up. Pic test too hope its not to big. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #17,348
  • Aug 1, 2008 10:53am Aug 1, 2008 10:53am
Quoting Jurrasic
I've been repeatedly fascinated in the past 2 days how much attention people give to relatively small things while they seem to ignore the fact that they got a year+ old trendline on the charts that the WHOLE market sees and minds (at least anybody trading with a few lots and up and not just for fun). We now had a second attempt at it and although there was a brief penetration of about 15 pips it's still in tact. Also you have stuff like oil, gold, UJ, AU, NU and some others ready to bounce for a nice run closer to preious highs. But it doesn't even matter, shorting above the line is asking for a stop loss as I se it. News reports.. they come and they go and soon forgotten..
Congrats, the best point of view seen here, you really see the big game.
  • #17,349
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:03am Aug 1, 2008 11:03am
Ok using a bit of time and price analysis, I have pinpointed where and when the eurusd will go, this is based on the information I have at the moment, as the market moves on a bit i will be able to zero in on the reversal zone to a higher degree.

The targets zone price is 1.5775 to 1.5924 and the when is 7-13 of August 2008, potentially as the market unfolds I will be able to provide an exact price and time to trade a reversal to within about 20 pips and 20 or thirty minutes


If any one is interested I will start a thread and start posting my analysis and trades.


Smalldog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdtargets 23rd july 08.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #17,350
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:05am Aug 1, 2008 11:05am
Quoting thegerman
Congrats, the best point of view seen here, you really see the big game.
Thanks. Seeing the big picture though is a lot easier than trading it. Still, trying to learn and improve day by day. I see forex as the ultimate intellectual playground, forget chess, this is real unlimmited cash and everybody's trying their best to get a piece.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,351
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:14am Aug 1, 2008 11:14am
It would not be good for the European economy if EU dropped this fast, we need rally up to 5900 then down to 5500 again, and do it slowly, helping their economy, nothing excessive, as G8 say ,'we have problem with excessive moves'
  • #17,352
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:15am Aug 1, 2008 11:15am
Quoting Jurrasic
Thanks. Seeing the big picture though is a lot easier than trading it. Still, trying to learn and improve day by day. I see forex as the ultimate intellectual playground, forget chess, this is real unlimmited cash and everybody's trying their best to get a piece.
I'm sorry, and what is the big picture? the big guys? c'mon, if you say stuff like that, be specific? I want to learn, not to be felt left out of the club
  • #17,353
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:16am Aug 1, 2008 11:16am
Quoting Jurrasic
Thanks. Seeing the big picture though is a lot easier than trading it. Still, trying to learn and improve day by day. I see forex as the ultimate intellectual playground, forget chess, this is real unlimmited cash and everybody's trying their best to get a piece.
My opinion doesn't change.

.5320 by mid September if not sooner.

Too much weight for Euro-zone to absorb.

Oil will bounce and bring the Euro with it but Oil at 100 or lower is on the horizon.

Big names will sell into any rallies.
  • #17,354
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:21am Aug 1, 2008 11:21am
Quoting acumen
My opinion doesn't change.

.5320 by mid September if not sooner.
Too far in the future to trade or make use of now I think. But quite possible if we have a retrace now for a while and then a fall through.

I don't like the fact though that we're not going a bit higher. Won't look that good if the market closes at 560-570, then maybe people don't see much of a point to move it these last few hours.
Quoting costos
I'm sorry, and what is the big picture? the big guys? c'mon, if you say stuff like that, be specific? I want to learn, not to be felt left out of the club
Well the guy said big picture, I'm just saying what I see. Some days you just look at stuff and it seems more clear than others probability wise.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,355
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:33am Aug 1, 2008 11:33am
Quoting Clouds
It would not be good for the European economy if EU dropped this fast, we need rally up to 5900 then down to 5500 again, and do it slowly, helping their economy, nothing excessive, as G8 say ,'we have problem with excessive moves'
Well said Clouds, I'm with you

Bogdus
  • #17,356
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:34am Aug 1, 2008 11:34am
shorting eurusd @ 1.5570

sl @ 1.5600

tp @ 1.5470
  • #17,357
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:39am Aug 1, 2008 11:39am
Quoting acumen
My opinion doesn't change.

.5320 by mid September if not sooner.

Too much weight for Euro-zone to absorb.

Oil will bounce and bring the Euro with it but Oil at 100 or lower is on the horizon.

Big names will sell into any rallies.
Jurrasic was very clear in his expression, He didn’t say that it’s impossible that the EUR will fall further down but he said that there is no reason at this point to go short. I understand that he mentions that if the price breaks the one year trend line will be a good entry to go short, otherwise hold or go long with low risk SL and I second that.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, Jurrasic.

Have a nice weekend all of you
  • #17,358
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:39am Aug 1, 2008 11:39am
Quoting iiivb
shorting eurusd @ 1.5570

sl @ 1.5600

tp @ 1.5470
  • #17,359
  • Edited 11:53am Aug 1, 2008 11:43am | Edited 11:53am
I'm intensely amused by these discussions...

For every post that the Euro will drop, there are around 50 posts...saying..NO..it's going to reverse now..Go Long...
If you look back from 1.6..one after the other theory has been launched about trend lines, resistance, etc with main item "now..for sure it will reverse..."

Uuuh...It hasn't..not at 1.59, 58, 57, 56, 55...But now we have this Major Trend line, Called "Our Last Hope"...Now it will reverse...for sure...

Just one simple question...It hasn't...WHY??..It had plenty of chances to reverse...same as we had plenty of chances to break 1.6....

I have posted my views already at 1.6 and downward several times if you want to talk about the "Big Picture"...and they have not changed one single bit...

FACT: Neither USA nor Europe is interested in a stronger Euro, they want Stability
FACT: Europe tries to prevent sliding into recession, UK is sliding into one, USA is trying to crawl out of one...
FACT: Oil is a large economic problem for the World...there is No reason at all, confirmed by OPEC to have these still high Oil prices

Now the most important FACT.. "A last resort Trend line" is not going to stop major world economies, central banks, investment funds, etc...from attempting to create a form of stability...

Is it recognized as a strong guideline, yes absolutely, is it likely to be the last resort to bounce..yes 100%...BUT...Will it...

That ladies & gents all depends on what we call Market Sentiment, which is Bearish until otherwise proven by all economical data world wide coming out...that's where "Smart Money" reacts upon....and at this point it tells us...yes we reached this lower line...but we like it here and see no reason to reverse...

I wonder why....

As always...Just my 2 Cents...
( Am I a Bull, Am I a Bear..Neither..I'm a Trader)
  • #17,360
  • Aug 1, 2008 11:49am Aug 1, 2008 11:49am
If price is below 1.5585, I'm short.
"People sometimes mistake luck with skill"
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