EURUSD

Quoting Jurrasic

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Good Morning folks,

Well, I'd like to discuss today with'ya all. From what I see here it's like this, the market is ranging tight like yesterday, my overall guess it should start going up at the end of the day a bit as a start of a new uptrend. Anyway positive US GDP announcement is holding us here for now. Other US news neutral to a bit negative and EUR news more or less neutral. So my guesstimate is we will keep ranging today and it'll just be boring. Now inside the range, though I doubt either side will be reached, I will long from the low 550s if price reaches it more than 2-3 hours before the GDP announcement and I will short from the 615-620 range if it's reached more than 3 hours before the GDP. Thus most cases are I'm staying out because otherwise the sl tp ratios won't be to my liking. Now, if the GDP drops us to 540 and below I will DEFINITELY look to buy again with risk at about 5475 again. Part of that buy this time, I will just leave running because if we indeed get a repulsion from this year long lower trendline for the third time then it will be a strong bullish signal for the markets as I see it and we should at least get to 950 area before trying to test it again if not much much more even.

EDIT: Oh yeah, I forgot I guess, just in case we do get a break down, I will short when my long sl gets hit at 5475 with an sl of about 50-60 pips and a target of at least 100. But like I said seems quite unlikely, it would also signal that the EUR uptrend is more or less over I guess.

Anyway, would be happy to hear your thoughts and opinions. Good pips to all.

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Quoting iiivb

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hey,

just wanted to share my chart with u all. (1H EURUSD - 13 DAYS)

according to the bollinger band, volatility has faded away giving room for a break-out.

according to the support line, had a false break-out to the downside making the previous broken upward trendline have its "mirror" signaling an uptrend channel.

macd just had a break-out to the upside and Stochastics confirm all this.

i am going long.

hope this helps.

iiivb

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Quoting 20pips

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Thanks for sharing, gives me a different perspective.

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Quoting freetrader

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This .pdf report published at Danske Macro Research may be of use or insightful.

The major reduction in global USD short positions are driving choppy moves.
I am concerned the technicals deteriorated and event drivers will dominate the coming sessions for the month of August. If we shift from the speculation attitude toward the fair value interest rate differential driver what can we expect for parity relationships going forward?

FreeTrader

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Quoting freetrader

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This .pdf report published at Danske Macro Research may be of use or insightful.

The major reduction in global USD short positions are driving choppy moves.
I am concerned the technicals deteriorated and event drivers will dominate the coming sessions for the month of August. If we shift from the speculation attitude toward the fair value interest rate differential driver what can we expect for parity relationships going forward?

FreeTrader

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Quoting MaZae

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hello everyone!!

first of all; freetrader, thank you for this information. i think this report is very interesting because it gives a very "zoomed out" picture of how the sentiment is NOW in the market.

the reason i said NOW is because the "big dogs" trade the present, not the future nor the past and my point here is that the reason why net short USD positions have been reduced since last week is very obvious.

two weeks ago we had the surprise of a big fall in gold and oil prices [surprise? i still don't know why this happen but anyways] better U.S economic data, a small recovery in Dow J. and many other factors that are putting the market in a position that both sides [bull/bear] are at break even.

now, about currencies... check the levels where we are:
=========================================================
EURUSD: monthly support... im not getting in details here because its all the this thread posts

AUDUSD: 0.98 level reached two weeks ago -> HIGHEST since many years ago, perhaps in the 80's ??

USDJPY: pressured to the downside from a fib38.2 retracement (aprox. begins June/07 @ 124.00, ends March/08 @ 98.80...) and to the upside from a rising wedge (check weekly charts)

XAUUSD: pressured to the upside by a fib 61.8 touched aprox. at 905.50

USDMXN: to see at the news a "10 pesos=1 dollar" is a very strong psychological support level !! but MXN raised interest rates and US economy data is not that strong as it used to be a couple of years ago.
=========================================================
and so on in many many pairs... i wish i could have in mind all of them but i'm still learning

the only thing i can say about all this:
i can't tell wether a reversal is comming or not... prices in many charts are stuck at critical levels. the good news is that this is a nice opportunity to grab a fresh trend. act to what happens and don't try to guess the next step of the market.

best trading wishes!

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Quoting SpecialEd

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Hi everyone. As I've recently said, I'm new at this, trying to catch on. So I have a pretty simple assumption that I ask someone to verify or refute. If I've drawn my trend lines correctly, I think this thing has been moving downward for the past two weeks. Absent the news (which I understand could upset any and every thing), is it accurate to say that this thing has about topped out for the time being, and will make about 5430 before it goes back up? That is assuming that this ranging continues and news does not cause a reversal.

I would really appreciate anyone's response. I may be way off, and I know I don't understand much, but you gotta start somewhere.

Thanks,

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Quoting Shadowfx

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Morning all,
Sometimes a picture tells you more then a thousand words...

Seldom seen a more beautiful example of two double top patterns in the EUR Daily chart...

I'm bearish..with a Target of min 1.54

As always..Just my 2 Cents...

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Quoting Jurrasic

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Nice going, as it is a pretty bullish sign I'll wait for the German employment news and this hour's close for some confirmation of a reversal before shorting, hope it won't drop too much by then. I'd say that the GDP though is unlikely to drive this below 550-560 area as it looks now the bulls are impatient to start the bigger rise so it shouldn't hold them back much I guess...

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