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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #421
  • Edited 2:50pm Feb 10, 2007 2:32pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting tamkras
even 1 trade per month at such confluence gives you 100+ pips.

Thats why it is not nescessary to chase every signal of the MACD of 5 currency pairs. 8 trades per month will give 300+ pips. One currency pair gives between 8-12 signals. If you trade only the top 5 signals you will get above 200 pips per month.
  • #422
  • Feb 10, 2007 2:37pm Feb 10, 2007 2:37pm
[quote=Phillip Nel;213789]
Quoting tamkras
here is another one[/quote

Well done. That is the motion part of the price action showing its emotion.
Yes, but what about this one (see yellow arrow)?
1) MACD signalbar for a long
2) Strong bullish price candle above MACD signal bar bouncing off the 89 SMA
3) Next candle open at the 8 EMA and at that moment for me not clear enough to know which way it would go

Great job and special thanks to you for this very interesting thread!
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  • #423
  • Feb 10, 2007 2:37pm Feb 10, 2007 2:37pm
Look at this uptrend and see how many signals were given and why the ones marked with a puprle dot was not made. Remember the rule is that when the price goes through the 89SMA and it pulls back to the 21EMA and then continue the trend it is normally trending for some time. If a counter trend trade is made the profit target is around the 21EMA. Dont work on the exact pip as it sometimes does not goes exactly to the 21EMA. Give a couple of pips for slippage.

The green rectangle is the open of the candle next to the signal candle.
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  • #424
  • Feb 10, 2007 2:47pm Feb 10, 2007 2:47pm
[quote=fewhills;213802]
Quoting Phillip Nel

Yes, but what about this one (see yellow arrow)?
1) MACD signalbar for a long
2) Strong bullish price candle above MACD signal bar bouncing off the 89 SMA
3) Next candle open at the 8 EMA and at that moment for me not clear enough to know which way it would go

Great job and special thanks to you for this very interesting thread!

You are absolutely right as it bounced off the 89SMA. But that trade was made just after a lower high MACD which made 100+ pips. The stoploss on this was 38 according to me. So 100 made, 38 lost, and then you take the trade as it developed further as in the picture and another 100 pips. That is why it is important to stay with two pairs only otherwise random is going to nail you. Three trades made with more or less 160 pips made. seems OK to have made that long trade which ended in a loss.
  • #425
  • Feb 10, 2007 3:02pm Feb 10, 2007 3:02pm
Phillip,

Your system can also be very well combined with divergences. Do you use them?
  • #426
  • Feb 10, 2007 3:09pm Feb 10, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting fewhills
Phillip,

Your system can also be very well combined with divergences. Do you use them?
A lower high in an uptrend is MACD divergence in most cases. A double lower high (MACD making two lower highs) in an uptrend is very strong divergence. So to make it easy, a lower high does not need much explanation and it is the same thing.
  • #427
  • Feb 10, 2007 3:32pm Feb 10, 2007 3:32pm
[quote=fewhills;213802]
Quoting Phillip Nel

Yes, but what about this one (see yellow arrow)?
1) MACD signalbar for a long
2) Strong bullish price candle above MACD signal bar bouncing off the 89 SMA
3) Next candle open at the 8 EMA and at that moment for me not clear enough to know which way it would go

Great job and special thanks to you for this very interesting thread!
Ha-ha, when I posted this trade, I was expecting this question about the second bullish bar. Phillip perfectly responded to this and let me comment a few words.

Yes, it bounced from 89SMA. However, in my interpretation of the MACD signal, the third bar on the MACD which signified potential reversal for the long was not at all that aggressive, so a true reverse V was not quite clear. In the hindsight even if I would have taken the long trade I could realize the mistake with the next bearish candles and true MACD continuation pattern.
  • #428
  • Edited Feb 11, 2007 7:00am Feb 10, 2007 9:56pm | Edited Feb 11, 2007 7:00am
since euro is caught again between two SMA's - 89 & 200, let me share my thoughts on the possible continuation scenarios.

Scenario 1:

This is bearish indicator because price did not find support @ 200SMA but was pushed under it. Four consecutive candles could not drive it up enough. We might expect bounce from this resistance line towards 89SMA.

Scenario 2:

This is incomplete head-and-shoulders pattern where price may pull out slightly again above 200SMA towards 1.3025 but then retrace sharply to the level of 1.2935-45. Two previous heads bounced (sorry for the unintended pun!) from 365SMA. This head failed to reach 365SMA and we may see further decline. Again, bearish indicator.

Scenario 3:

Last week was a busted breakout towards 365SMA. Magical level 1.3050 is still intact with all the news hype around euro. All busted patterns are fairly reliable. Again, bearish signal.

These are just the thoughts and only the market (read MACD strategy) will point us to the right direction next week. Any ideas on what the future of euro holds for us?
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  • #429
  • Feb 11, 2007 12:11am Feb 11, 2007 12:11am
Quoting fnmdx
Superb explaination Phil...

But is still longway for me, only got 7 deals by using MACD only. I still need to read and understand your notes regarding SMA's and EMA's plus trendlines.

My rating is ...EXCELLENT!
Hi Phil,

I am using FXDD Meta4 as my charting platform. Compared with your chart, I notice there are differences. For some examples, look at my chart (Red lines correspond to your signal bar (MACD) while blue lines are mine, and the number is the Deal number). These differences not only would have caused me some pips, but also might lose the trade.

FYI, I can only enter SingalSMA=1 instead of MACD EMA=1 in my MACD properties. Does this cause the difference? Does anybody knows how to change to MACD EMA=1 in FXDD MT4? What platform do you use, Phil? I know this is a bit late to ask, but I am still trying to learn and figure out why I got only 7 deals out of your 23 total? Thank in advance for any comments.
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  • #430
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:34am Feb 11, 2007 5:34am
[quote=tamkras;213833]
Quoting fewhills

Ha-ha, when I posted this trade, I was expecting this question about the second bullish bar. Phillip perfectly responded to this and let me comment a few words.

Yes, it bounced from 89SMA. However, in my interpretation of the MACD signal, the third bar on the MACD which signified potential reversal for the long was not at all that aggressive, so a true reverse V was not quite clear. In the hindsight even if I would have taken the long trade I could realize the mistake with the next bearish candles and true MACD continuation pattern.

That is why I say. Patience. You will get more than enough good chances.
  • #431
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:49am Feb 11, 2007 5:49am
Quoting fnmdx
Hi Phil,

I am using FXDD Meta4 as my charting platform. Compared with your chart, I notice there are differences. For some examples, look at my chart (Red lines correspond to your signal bar (MACD) while blue lines are mine, and the number is the Deal number). These differences not only would have caused me some pips, but also might lose the trade.

FYI, I can only enter SingalSMA=1 instead of MACD EMA=1 in my MACD properties. Does this cause the difference? Does anybody knows how to change to MACD EMA=1 in FXDD MT4? What platform do you use, Phil? I know this is a bit late to ask, but I am still trying to learn and figure out why I got only 7 deals out of your 23 total? Thank in advance for any comments.
This has been adressed earlier. 1SMA or 1EMA remains the same. The time difference is with the broker closure time of their 4hour candle. That is why the closurs of your 4hour candle differs from mine. I am using Metatrader4 with data supply by MIG.
  • #432
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:11am Feb 11, 2007 6:11am
Someone aked me about the live trades I made with this system. The only live ones I made with this system so far are the ones I have done and described in this thread and the live one in the manual. There were one made the 29 Jan 2007 16:00(GMT) on the GBP with gain 109 pips I did not describe as the thread was just introduced. My backtesting showed over 300pips per month. My live trades are going to be described on the thread as I am doing it. I only do the EurUsd and the GbpUsd and entries will be on 16:00 , 20:00 and 0:00 GMT time as I cannot enter at other times due to working conditions.

If you are fimiliar with other currencies you are welcome to enter those and give as some feedback and charts for discussion. I am not going to get involve in prodicting what may be as I have found that people act upon those thoughts with live accounts.

I believe in the rule that the facts are in front of me therefore I will do this and that. I will only act if the MACD shows a signal and I have worked out the probabilities and only if that is in my favour will I enter.
  • #433
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:42am Feb 11, 2007 6:42am
Quoting fnmdx
Hi Phil,

I am using FXDD Meta4 as my charting platform. Compared with your chart, I notice there are differences. For some examples, look at my chart (Red lines correspond to your signal bar (MACD) while blue lines are mine, and the number is the Deal number). These differences not only would have caused me some pips, but also might lose the trade.

FYI, I can only enter SingalSMA=1 instead of MACD EMA=1 in my MACD properties. Does this cause the difference? Does anybody knows how to change to MACD EMA=1 in FXDD MT4? What platform do you use, Phil? I know this is a bit late to ask, but I am still trying to learn and figure out why I got only 7 deals out of your 23 total? Thank in advance for any comments.
Hi fnmdx,

I am using FXDD Meta4 too and I am aware that they have a different clock setting. You can not change it as it is server-related. It may sound somewhat odd to you but you can open a demo account with InterbankFX and your 4HR charts will be o.k. This is what I do.
  • #434
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:47am Feb 11, 2007 6:47am
Hello Philippe Nel,

You launched a thread on 01.01.2007 named the "5min intraday system" base on MM. The 01.28.2007 u launched the "4 Hour Strategy" based on MACD. I am just wondering which one of those strategy you are trading on? Both?

Cheers,
  • #435
  • Feb 11, 2007 9:12am Feb 11, 2007 9:12am
Quoting Gygs
Hello Philippe Nel,

You launched a thread on 01.01.2007 named the "5min intraday system" base on MM. The 01.28.2007 u launched the "4 Hour Strategy" based on MACD. I am just wondering which one of those strategy you are trading on? Both?

Cheers,

Both. As the 5 min is when I have the time to sit and after some news.
  • #436
  • Feb 11, 2007 11:48am Feb 11, 2007 11:48am
Hi Phillip,

In relation to your highway analogy, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD really shouldnt' be going anywhere quickly and they are along the 365 EMA which is what you mentioned a slow lane. When they hit the slow lane, what do you look for? do they follow the same signals?

I'm looking for what to do with both of them. are you holding for a certain signal inparticular?

Thanks!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #437
  • Edited 2:09pm Feb 11, 2007 1:55pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting DireXiv
Hi Phillip,

In relation to your highway analogy, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD really shouldnt' be going anywhere quickly and they are along the 365 EMA which is what you mentioned a slow lane. When they hit the slow lane, what do you look for? do they follow the same signals?

I'm looking for what to do with both of them. are you holding for a certain signal inparticular?

Thanks!
When the price is in the slow lane it does not mean that there is not going to be some movement. All it says is that before the price gets direction it tends to test that slow lane again. So when the price move away from the slow lane and turn around it is going to test it again and then there will be direction. It can also stay around the slow MA but then it becomes a consolidation. The normal MACD signals apply. It is just if you know the motion around these slow MA's you can set your targets for profit taking better.

The EurUsd I have found that when the price hits the 200SMA twice the trend(the lane it is in) tends to continue.
  • #438
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:52pm Feb 11, 2007 4:52pm
10:46 GMT

So Phillip,

If the Eur/usd closes above the 200 EMA, would you take that as a zero bounce situation, and expect it to contiue the upward trend?
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DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #439
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:04pm Feb 11, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
This has been adressed earlier. 1SMA or 1EMA remains the same. The time difference is with the broker closure time of their 4hour candle. That is why the closurs of your 4hour candle differs from mine. I am using Metatrader4 with data supply by MIG.
If you want to have charts that are exactly like the MACD examples, you can open a demo acct from MIG forex at: www.migfx.ch. Use the demo account to identify the MACD entry points and use your cuurent broker to manage your trades.
  • #440
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:24pm Feb 11, 2007 5:24pm
How does the GDP/USD look to everyone?
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