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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #401
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:30pm Feb 9, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting Freewheelin
Phillip,

now it's understood - and your example caused another question. Sorry...

At point C (continuation pattern) the price seems to be too close to 1.3200, a "special" price level. Would or do you have entered that trade? If so, then I think S/L would be set to 21ma? Please be kind and tell us what you have in mind if you have entered that trade.

Manymany thanks again for your work.

Freewheelin
(a german in greece)
I call the moving averages highway lanes. Each define a certain speed. The 200SMA very slow, 89SMA slow, 21EMA mediumfast and the 8EMA very fast. If you look at the chart above you will notice that the speed of the market was fast to very fast so that pricelevel won't stop or slow down the price.

When the price is finding support on the 89SMA twice in a row the speed is slow etc.

Currently the speed of the EurUsd is slow to very very slow as it is around the 200SMA and 365EMA lane

The price then tend to hoover around the support an resistance levels untill the speed changes.
  • #402
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:43pm Feb 9, 2007 4:43pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I call the moving averages highway lanes. Each define a certain speed. The 200SMA very slow, 89SMA slow, 21EMA mediumfast and the 8EMA very fast. If you look at the chart above you will notice that the speed of the market was fast to very fast so that pricelevel won't stop or slow down the price.

When the price is finding support on the 89SMA twice in a row the speed is slow etc.

Currently the speed of the EurUsd is slow to very very slow as it is around the 200SMA and 365EMA lane

The price then tend to hoover around the support an resistance levels untill the speed changes.

Phillip,

you are one of the best, really. Not only providing a method which is outstanding. No!
You have skills to be a hell of a teacher!

Now the puzzle is comlete (<----hoping )

It's great to have such a board with very polite and skilled people.

Thousand thank yous are not enough!

Freewheelin
42
  • #403
  • Feb 9, 2007 4:53pm Feb 9, 2007 4:53pm
Taking a look at the GBP/USD..
i went long at the second to last candle.. im down 11 pips right now and getting nervous.. philip, even though the MACD shows a big turn around and it is ripe for a correction do you think it will a least go up to the next MA or should i just call it quits here and exit the trade? I hope to hear back soon!

Thanks for all your help! This is definitely an amazing strategy
Dave
  • #404
  • Feb 9, 2007 5:55pm Feb 9, 2007 5:55pm
Hi Superdezign,

attached you’ll find a pic. Is it the last (red) candle you are talking about? If so, then there is something to tell about:

assume it is Monday, Tuesday, … Thursday I would have entered that trade. The MACD gives a signal to go long.

BUT:

It is Friday, it is the last candle of the day before weekend. That’s why you shouldn’t enter! Of course, you can wait until Sunday to see what happens.

Personally, I wouldn’t trade the last 4 hours of Friday. But maybe Phillip has other suggestions.
There it is, that next question Phillip : Do you enter the market on last candle of Friday? And what about exit: Hold or quit before forex closes?

Greets

Freewheelin
Attached Image
42
  • #405
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:12pm Feb 9, 2007 6:12pm
Phillip,
First I would like to commend you for all of your contributions. I would like to add an observation as to a potential filter to the MACD. It seems the more the angle & seperation between the 8 & 21 MA---the stronger the move and the probability of staying in the trade longer (even if the MACD gives a change signal.) As long as there is good angle & seperation and the candle is not closing on the opposite side of the 8 MA (depending on the trade direction of course , the probabiliy is good.

What do you think? Thanks
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
  • #406
  • Edited 10:54pm Feb 9, 2007 6:24pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting Freewheelin
Hi Superdezign,

attached you’ll find a pic. Is it the last (red) candle you are talking about? If so, then there is something to tell about:

assume it is Monday, Tuesday, … Thursday I would have entered that trade. The MACD gives a signal to go long.

BUT:

It is Friday, it is the last candle of the day before weekend. That’s why you shouldn’t enter! Of course, you can wait until Sunday to see what happens.

Personally, I wouldn’t trade the last 4 hours of Friday. But maybe Phillip has other suggestions.
There it is, that next question Phillip : Do you enter the market on last candle of Friday? And what about exit: Hold or quit before forex closes?

Greets

Freewheelin
I agree with Freewheelin but I have something to add. This is what I noticed on 4Hr cable when played with MACD strategy, not sure about eur/usd pair. But the question was about GU and I got interested to investigate this particular scenario. here are my findings. I noticed that when the price pierced thru the critical 89 or 200SMA lines, it is a major sign and I believed Phillip wrote about it, too, somewhere but I can be wrong. I then used fast 5 EMA on these charts. Please, have a look at them all. I can find more. So, in all the cases, the target price on this rising candle was fast 5 ema. What do you think, folks?

ADDITION: I attach 1 more example (fourth image) of the critical sma's crossovers and look how price reacts afterwards. As Phillip said it is not always automatic, do not take every MACD signal for jumping into a trade.
Attached Images
  • #407
  • Feb 9, 2007 6:50pm Feb 9, 2007 6:50pm
It looks to me like a "downward continuation pattern" with a price projection of 1.9420 - 1.9412.
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
  • #408
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:04pm Feb 9, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting tamkras
I agree with Freewheelin but I have something to add. This is what I noticed on 4Hr cable when played with MACD strategy, not sure about eur/usd pair. But the question was about GU and I got interested to investigate this particular scenario. here are my findings. I noticed that when the price pierced thru the critical 89 or 200SMA lines, it is a major sign and I believed Phillip wrote about it, too, somewhere but I can be wrong. I then used fast 5 EMA on these charts. Please, have a look at them all. I can find more. So, in all the cases, the target price on this rising candle was fast 5 ema. What do you think, folks?
Makes me feel a little bit more confident about the trade. Thanks for at least giving me some peace of mind this weekend while my trade floats at a negative.
I understand that I may have made a mistake trading at the end of a friday, but I was only hoping for maybe a quick 10-15 pip profit. It looked so ready for a correction I thought I could have pulled it off. Guess I will have to wait and see. Thank you for investigating this buddy, and I hope you are right.

I would still appreciate some commentary from phillip just to see what he thinks.

Take it easy guys
Dave
  • #409
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:05pm Feb 9, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting Dropplan
It looks to me like a "downward continuation pattern" with a price projection of 1.9420 - 1.9412.

Hi Dropplan,
would you please add a chart. Because I don't see a continuation downward pattern. Added the template to several brokers - and for me it is always a long signal on opening of last candle.
42
  • #410
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:35pm Feb 9, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting flytox
Hello what is the indicator telling the time left to the end of the candle??
Here is a time telling indicator from antoher thread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Clock_v1_3.mq4   8 KB | 4,263 downloads
  • #411
  • Feb 9, 2007 7:35pm Feb 9, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting Freewheelin
Hi Dropplan,
would you please add a chart. Because I don't see a continuation downward pattern. Added the template to several brokers - and for me it is always a long signal on opening of last candle.
There is a TL break at the close today that leads me to believe the trend will continue down.(at the least to the 89 SMA where it may bounce). I feel the GBP is topped out and heading south. I've also attached a PP and how I arrived at it.
Attached Images
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
  • #412
  • Feb 9, 2007 11:59pm Feb 9, 2007 11:59pm
Well I see that,
Thank you Phillip
Quoting Phillip Nel
You can do that. It just might be that your entries will be a 4hour candle later or you will have to enter on motion inbetween a 4hour which I dont like.
in
  • #413
  • Feb 10, 2007 3:49am Feb 10, 2007 3:49am
Quoting Freewheelin
Hi Superdezign,

attached you’ll find a pic. Is it the last (red) candle you are talking about? If so, then there is something to tell about:

assume it is Monday, Tuesday, … Thursday I would have entered that trade. The MACD gives a signal to go long.

BUT:

It is Friday, it is the last candle of the day before weekend. That’s why you shouldn’t enter! Of course, you can wait until Sunday to see what happens.

Personally, I wouldn’t trade the last 4 hours of Friday. But maybe Phillip has other suggestions.
There it is, that next question Phillip : Do you enter the market on last candle of Friday? And what about exit: Hold or quit before forex closes?

Greets

Freewheelin

If there is a signal the second last candle on a Friday I will enter but I never go over a weekend with any deals open. Any bad news can happen and the open on Monday might be much lower or higher. I will close it on friday night and if it looks good to continue on Monday I will re-enter on open Monday if there was'nt any big news and if the open is within the closing range of Friday.
  • #414
  • Feb 10, 2007 3:59am Feb 10, 2007 3:59am
Quoting Dropplan
Phillip,
First I would like to commend you for all of your contributions. I would like to add an observation as to a potential filter to the MACD. It seems the more the angle & seperation between the 8 & 21 MA---the stronger the move and the probability of staying in the trade longer (even if the MACD gives a change signal.) As long as there is good angle & seperation and the candle is not closing on the opposite side of the 8 MA (depending on the trade direction of course , the probabiliy is good.

What do you think? Thanks

Fore sure that is the case. It is just emotional hard to see a gain of 70 or so pips came down to 20 or so before heading up again. You can only trade those type of trends and ignore all other and still make money. It means much less trading as those trends does not occur regular but they are very rewarding.

I know of some people that when the price is way above the 8EMA and the MACD gives a short signal open a short trade while still have their long open (your account stay level) and if the turnaround comes at the 21EMA close the short and then ride the up again. Only a way of money management.
  • #415
  • Feb 10, 2007 4:05am Feb 10, 2007 4:05am
Quoting tamkras
I agree with Freewheelin but I have something to add. This is what I noticed on 4Hr cable when played with MACD strategy, not sure about eur/usd pair. But the question was about GU and I got interested to investigate this particular scenario. here are my findings. I noticed that when the price pierced thru the critical 89 or 200SMA lines, it is a major sign and I believed Phillip wrote about it, too, somewhere but I can be wrong. I then used fast 5 EMA on these charts. Please, have a look at them all. I can find more. So, in all the cases, the target price on this rising candle was fast 5 ema. What do you think, folks?

ADDITION: I attach 1 more example (fourth image) of the critical sma's crossovers and look how price reacts afterwards. As Phillip said it is not always automatic, do not take every MACD signal for jumping into a trade.
I agree 100%. The only thing that got me was the third support on the trendline together with MACD long signal. I would however only have entered above the 200SMA. That would have kept me out of a wrong deal.
  • #416
  • Feb 10, 2007 4:12am Feb 10, 2007 4:12am
Quoting Dropplan
There is a TL break at the close today that leads me to believe the trend will continue down.(at the least to the 89 SMA where it may bounce). I feel the GBP is topped out and heading south. I've also attached a PP and how I arrived at it.

When the price move through the 89SMA and break a trendline and pulls back towards the 21EMA and then continue the trend it is a sign that we might be in a real trend. The 8EMA shows that the price is below on a down trend which indicate we are in the very fast lane. If you go long now on a MACD signal it would on a retracement to inbetween the 8EMA and 21EMA. Check the R:R ratio.
  • #417
  • Feb 10, 2007 1:27pm Feb 10, 2007 1:27pm
hope everyone has a great weekend. I believe Phillip gave a wonderful start for the MACD strategy - look at the accelaration rate of this thread view.

while we have some time away from the market, I wanted to go thru some cable 4HR charts with an idea to find MACD gems, that is high-high probability trades. I am so far enjoying it. Here is one. Look at the confluence of patterns, t'was hard to miss it, indeed.
Attached Image
  • #418
  • Feb 10, 2007 1:56pm Feb 10, 2007 1:56pm
here is another one
Attached Image
  • #419
  • Feb 10, 2007 2:01pm Feb 10, 2007 2:01pm
[quote=tamkras;213788]here is another one[/quote

Well done. That is the motion part of the price action showing its emotion.
  • #420
  • Feb 10, 2007 2:18pm Feb 10, 2007 2:18pm
even 1 trade per month at such confluence gives you 100+ pips.
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