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No Brainer Trades

  • #1,821
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:40am Jul 30, 2008 9:40am
Quoting Greenhaze
It still looks valid to me ;].
I'm waiting for 10-20 pips scalp at 1.9715 gbp/usd. Major reverse area at 1.9665

Buy @ 213.70 gbp/jpy looks good to me after clear bounce from diagonal trendline.
I expect retest of this area and pretty good ride.

ok thanks....good luck
  • #1,822
  • Edited 10:59am Jul 30, 2008 9:44am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting kimmy
Hello

is the call for a short UJ from 108.40-60 still valid??

cheers
kim
Hi Kimmy, so far so good, would like to see it higher if possible towards 60.....talking to friends, they like the 50 level. Could always scale into part on the bottom, part on top, cut your risk on the bottom if any moves higher.
  • #1,823
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:49am Jul 30, 2008 9:49am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Kimmi, so far so good, would like to see it higher if possible towards 60.....talking to friends, they like the 50 level.

hey billy .....thanks.....i will keep an eye on it


cheers
  • #1,824
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:51am Jul 30, 2008 9:51am
Quoting 68eagle
If you were scalping for 10 to 40 PIPs, would you stay with the 40 PIP SL? It just seems to me that on these kinds of targets I would be using 4H and 1H charts to set up the trade and 15M or 5M charts to time the entry and maintain the trade. Isn't 40 PIPs a long way to go on short time frame charts. Or are you looking at it as an emergency stop that almost never gets hit and if the price gets close, say 20 to 39 PIPs, then you can look at the trade as a bust and try to get out at a better price.

Would it make sense to go to a 10 or 20 PIP SL on these types of plays, with the idea that that kind of move signifies a bust?

I would think that you should either have a very short leash on the trade (10 -20 PIPs) or give it some running room (40PIPs) with the posibility of "saving" the trade.

Does any of this make sense? Or do I sound like a scared trader?

Thanks for sharing your method with us and for your patience.
No it makes sense.....my stop is going to vary based on where I'm at any given point in time. For smaller scalper trades, I usually expect price to bounce right off of a certain area. If it doesnt, I basically just look for the quickest escape. If I get something like a 20 pip DD and its just the wrong time to enter, I just look to get out at the first possible moment or retrace. No sense in holding on waiting for 40. These trades are supposed to bounce right off of these expected areas....if they dont its usually just a sign of failure. Either way I would still have something static in place....dont ever let anything get out of your control...ever.
  • #1,825
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:59am Jul 30, 2008 9:59am
Quoting observer2000
BRV,

Great! The only problem that I still see right now is "validation process". We might have a lot of proposed trades but not all of them will be valid "No Brainer Trades". How can we come to a decision which trade to include into final performance report?

I see only 3 possible solutions:
1. You can give your approval on those trades.
2. You can name those who agree to participate and whom you trust.
3. We can try to vote for proposed trades with our own judgement. But I doubt it is possible because we will need to collect all votes before the trade is made. Post factum, it doesnt have any value.

I definitely would prefer to have a "clear" sample which represents the method itself. Is it possible at all? If not, then any performance report wount have any value.

So, guys, any idea?
Thanks observer that would be great of you.....my best suggestion would be just to have anybody that wants a trade tracked to simply wite the word "Track" in the subject. I'll keep on tracking my own trades on the header as usual. No "Track" in subject, it wont be counted.

Seriously, thats above and beyond what I would expect from anyone here as I really dont think Im going to be able to keep up with all of these. So thank you again. Does this sound good? I think the other ways would leave some good ideas out perhaps and voting would be just a pretty tedious process. Sound good?
  • #1,826
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:34am Jul 30, 2008 10:34am
hey Billy

can i just check something out with you ?....the cable trade ...long from 9800......it has just had some drawdown but would it still be good to enter long when it comes back up again ?........not just talking about this one but also for future trades too ?

cheers
kim
  • #1,827
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:03am Jul 30, 2008 11:03am
Quoting kimmy
hey Billy

can i just check something out with you ?....the cable trade ...long from 9800......it has just had some drawdown but would it still be good to enter long when it comes back up again ?........not just talking about this one but also for future trades too ?

cheers
kim
Hi Kimmy, yeah that trade is toast now. I have to update the front page. My best suggestion would be to just wait it out for another level...to the downside we're looking at 1.9713 and then 1.9666 area, to the upside maybe the 1.9900 area, my best guess the way things look for now.
  • #1,828
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:04am Jul 30, 2008 11:04am
Well said SmokeyMcPip!

I'm with you on this one !

We shouldn't ask any more from those people who are freely giving their time and experience to enable us to help us learn to more effectively.

I've learned so much over the past few weeks and thank all of those who take the time to take part in this thread, especially BRV.
  • #1,829
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:17am Jul 30, 2008 11:17am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Kimmy, yeah that trade is toast now. I have to update the front page. My best suggestion would be to just wait it out for another level...to the downside we're looking at 1.9713 and then 1.9666 area, to the upside maybe the 1.9900 area, my best guess the way things look for now.

that's great ..thanks very much for your advice.........
  • #1,830
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:21am Jul 30, 2008 11:21am
Quoting observer2000
BRV,

Great! The only problem that I still see right now is "validation process". We might have a lot of proposed trades but not all of them will be valid "No Brainer Trades". How can we come to a decision which trade to include into final performance report?

I see only 3 possible solutions:
1. You can give your approval on those trades.
2. You can name those who agree to participate and whom you trust.
3. We can try to vote for proposed trades with our own judgement. But I doubt it is possible because we will need to collect all votes before the trade is made. Post factum, it doesnt have any value.

I definitely would prefer to have a "clear" sample which represents the method itself. Is it possible at all? If not, then any performance report wount have any value.

So, guys, any idea?
My suggestion is to add a "proposer" column - and maybe also a link to the post in which it was proposed. That'll make it easier to include/exclude specific traders' contributions when analyzing the results.
By default, I think anyone who has a "true no-brainer" should be included. That excludes, of course, the "what do you think?" type of suggestions. And the link would make it easy to go back and analyze the proposer's reasoning behind the trade.

Thanks for a great thread!
6p
  • #1,831
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:21am Jul 30, 2008 11:21am
Quoting damselfish
Well said SmokeyMcPip!

I'm with you on this one !

We shouldn't ask any more from those people who are freely giving their time and experience to enable us to help us learn to more effectively.

I've learned so much over the past few weeks and thank all of those who take the time to take part in this thread, especially BRV.
Thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank you!!!

Through the evolution of this thread I've basically come to one goal and that is to have a melting pot of ideas for highly probable trades, and help to teach others how to be become profitable, self-sustaining traders.

I help when I can; anyone sticking around knows that I get around to almost every question; the only thing I ask is the same thing I demand of myself, and that is that hard work and dilligence pays off.

There's unfortunately a great deal of fanaticism in this business geared towards driving in money for brokers and other service providers, lurking in many people looking for easy money. I'll tell you from experience that there's nothing easy about learning all there is to know about trading currencies, and it takes a long time before you really get comfortable and know how to manage yourself properly.

Thanks again to everyone.....lets keep it rolling!
  • #1,832
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:32am Jul 30, 2008 11:32am
Hi all,

I would like to ask everybody to read BRV's post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1274

If you are interested please post your call here with the word "Track" in the subject
  • #1,833
  • Edited 2:04pm Jul 30, 2008 12:20pm | Edited 2:04pm
I've been lurking here for the last few days and I have to say this is one of the best threads i've read here on FF.
First off, I would like to thank Billy ray and all the regular contributors to this thread. Great work guys!!
I usually trade daily and weekly charts on up to 13 different pairs and my trading style is slightly similar to yours although I include some moving averages and fibs.

I know you are busy Billy Ray, but I hope you can answer a few questions:

1. What website/sofware do you use to set price alerts on the different pairs you are watching? Do you receive the alerts on your cellphone? I find it can get a bit overwhelming to set alerts especially when following different pairs on shorter timeframes (< daily charts in my case)

2. Who's your broker and what software do you use?

3. Which trading sessions do you trade?

BRV, thanks again for this excellent thread!

Lenny
  • #1,834
  • Jul 30, 2008 1:09pm Jul 30, 2008 1:09pm
Long Eur/Usd 1.5560 // Short Usd/Chf 1.0475. Oil bounced from major support with strong momentum // Usd/Chf hit resistance 1.0490-1.0520 // Eur/Usd hit major up trendline on daily. Touches already occur so i'm looking to get in at the next possible retracement. From those two setups im more keen on Usd/Chf (possible nice pinbar on daily when close) becouse looking at eur/chf im biased for stronger chf.
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  • #1,835
  • Jul 30, 2008 1:14pm Jul 30, 2008 1:14pm
Greenhaze I noticed the same thing a few minutes ago and I'm trying to get long EURUSD at 69. I just want to be sure to get in the trade. I see this working for about a week.
The usdchf short should also play out. I'm already in that one. My only reservation there is weak gold propping up usdchf. Regardless I like your trades and I think both will play out.
It really is that easy.
  • #1,836
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:43pm Jul 30, 2008 5:43pm
what do we do to those that give wrong forecast, i think they should be penalised and not allowed to put post for a while because a lot of people would make judgements based on their post, unless in the casde where a fundamental unexpected news takes out all s/r lines, also is everyone subject to the 40pip drawdown, then any post should have a point of highest probability,finally considering the usd/chf trade i have a problem agreeing,cos i believe the 1.0480 area was a good resistance area that might turned into a support,lets watch n see,i agree with your other post
Quoting Greenhaze
Long Eur/Usd 1.5560 // Short Usd/Chf l1.0475. Oil bounced from major support with strong momentum // Usd/Chf hit resistance 1.0490-1.0520 // Eur/Usd hit major up trendline on daily. Touches already occur so i'm looking to get in at the next possible retracement. From those two setups im more keen on Usd/Chf (possible nice pinbar on daily when close) becouse looking at eur/chf im biased for stronger chf.
  • #1,837
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:07pm Jul 30, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting pastork
what do we do to those that give wrong forecast, i think they should be penalised and not allowed to put post for a while because a lot of people would make judgements based on their post, unless in the casde where a fundamental unexpected news takes out all s/r lines, also is everyone subject to the 40pip drawdown, then any post should have a point of highest probability,finally considering the usd/chf trade i have a problem agreeing,cos i believe the 1.0480 area was a good resistance area that might turned into a support,lets watch n see,i agree with your other post
I don't believe that one should be trading without the requisite knowledge to do so. If you are unable for yourself to find a confluence of reasons to take a trade based on a particular level's relevance, then you should stand aside. This is not an alert service, nor should it be. It is an place where people come together to share a common vision, not blindly follow someone else's recommendation. And when many eyes are seeing the same thing, that thing takes on a greater significance.
  • #1,838
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:09pm Jul 30, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting pipeye
I don't believe that one should be trading without the requisite knowledge to do so. If you are unable for yourself to find a confluence of reasons to take a trade based on a particular level's relevance, then you should stand aside. This is not an alert service, nor should it be. It is an place where people come together to share a common vision, not blindly follow someone else's recommendation. And when many eyes are seeing the same thing, that thing takes on a greater significance.
agreed
  • #1,839
  • Edited 6:21pm Jul 30, 2008 6:09pm | Edited 6:21pm
Re Losing trades:

I propose that the journal record that Observer2000 has offered to keep include the member who proposed it as well. This will make members accountable for their trade recommendations. Remember the threads goal here is 90%.

If this is an acceptable proposal the next question would be this: What would be a fair way to give all members a shot at showing they can decipher "no brainer (90/10) trades" VS " "decent (60/40) trades"?

My recommendation would be exclusion from offering trade recommendations unless certain levels are met.
2 winners out of 3
3 winners out of 5
6 winners out of 9
9 winners out of 13
15 winners out of 20

I think a little latitude should be offered in the beginning as this reflects a very small sample size. As the number of trades increase the percentages need to gradually rise. Remember the goal is 90%, but that is admittadly an extremely high criteria to meet. The point is that such a high goal rate should make everyone double, triple or quadraple think if this trade recommendation is really a "no brainer".
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,840
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:14pm Jul 30, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting pipeye
I don't believe that one should be trading without the requisite knowledge to do so. If you are unable for yourself to find a confluence of reasons to take a trade based on a particular level's relevance, then you should stand aside. This is not an alert service, nor should it be. It is an place where people come together to share a common vision, not blindly follow someone else's recommendation. And when many eyes are seeing the same thing, that thing takes on a greater significance.

Yes Pipeye, for those that are looking for a free ride I say look elsewhere. If you want someone to tell you what to do, ie a service, we can figure out a monthly fee.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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