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No Brainer Trades

  • #1,801
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:09am Jul 30, 2008 3:09am
Quote
From 9800, it reached 9760, so that would be stopped out, wouldn't it?

It would depend when you place the trade....I would have waited for the 0800 bst candle which raced up from 1.9785 and trade is now well in profit.

(I'm only watching from the sidelines)
  • #1,802
  • Edited 7:02am Jul 30, 2008 4:03am | Edited 7:02am
Short EURUSD @1.5630 (unofficial)

I think good short opportunity lies around this level as it showed some great supp/ress strength in recent past. Of course, yesterday's news pierced level but that is normal under that market conditions.
Additional arguments are that it lies in vicinity of 38.2 fib level from last dropdown and it is placed right on the daily pivot level.

Type of trade: scalp
Take profit estimate: 30 pips
Stop loss: 10-12 pips max

EDIT: 15 min to major news price action has not approached this level. But
if news will be positive, i will stay with this setup.
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  • #1,803
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:22am Jul 30, 2008 4:22am
Hi,

Yea closed out my Eur/usd trade @ 15610. Taking the cash on this. Keeping the Gbp/JPy open but it looks like it's going to hit my stop Iv'e no energy today (square eyes ) time to call it a day.
  • #1,804
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:04am Jul 30, 2008 5:04am
Quoting observer2000
Hi BRV,

Thank you for this thread. Your method looks very solid but we definitely need to get a bigger and (more importantly) more consistent sample to analyze the statistical significance of "No Brainer Trades".

I would like to propose a more consistent way to gather this sample. Can you please maintain a table of officially suggested/approved trades, something like this http://sites.google.com/site/nobrainertrades on daily basis?

I understand that you are busy so as my contribution to this thread I can maintain this table myself. We can ask everybody to submit their proposals by email to me, I can publish them on the URL above, you can revise them and either mark as approved or rejected. After that I can prepare the same performance stats as yours only on approved trades.

Please let me know if you or anybody are interested

Thanks
Oleg

Yeah that would be great if you would like to tackle it. I'll admit, in hindsight, that I really dont think I'm going to have the time to keep up with everyone elses, but if you would like to go ahead and start doing so please be my guest, I would really appreciate it. I'll keep going ahead with mine but if you would like to start posting them then by all means that would be great. I'll put the link on the first page with the other stuff. Thanks alot, please let me know if you need anything.

One thing that I dont think thats been working out as well is if people are just talking about a trade or really calling it, so I would ask anyone that if you would like to have it tracked just to write the word "Track" on the post with the trade, preferrably in the subject line.

Thanks again,
  • #1,805
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:06am Jul 30, 2008 5:06am
Quoting lemmingboiv2
BRV could you please tell Mortimer and Randolph to make this Mofo bounce already?
Haha, told them but they didnt listen.
  • #1,806
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:17am Jul 30, 2008 5:17am
Quoting 68eagle
When UJ hourly closed above 108.00, did that signify a past resistance becoming support situation. Is the best approach now to look to go long UJ @ 108.00?

BRV, this is a great thread! Thanks to all for sharing valuble insights.
Yeah but judging by the close it ended up way above the level (about 20 pips)........good to wait for it to come back to the level at that point........and looking at the way things went didnt look like it would have been that spectacular of a trade anyway, only 15 or something pips.
  • #1,807
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:23am Jul 30, 2008 5:23am
Quoting pastork
tanx for the info, how long do you think this dollar apprecition would last since its based on sentiments,looks like its continuing from where it stopped yesterday
Everything strengthened heavily, especially after yesterday. Unless we see a major change of action in the form of news, we're still looking to the downside another 100 pips or so to 1.5465, where youre going to see buying pressure.

Its toast tonight though.....you can tell the currency just ran a marathon and is having a hard time getting "up" if you know what I mean. Its acting totally sluggish tonight in general, and we still have heavy data out every day for the rest of this week....very volatile week in general.
  • #1,808
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:23am Jul 30, 2008 5:23am
Quoting aranjones
From 9800, it reached 9760, so that would be stopped out, wouldn't it? Maybe it would be better to measure from the middle of the possible range?

Just an idea to try and help with keeping the records consistent. Maybe in combination with Observer2000's generous offer?
I have 61 on my MT platform. Normally I would from the middle, or best entry like I described but I didnt write it in the post, so I was just trying to be fair. Because some of these dont go to the middle of the range at all. Anyway, again numbers are there just to prove what we do here works, really nothing else.
  • #1,809
  • Edited 5:46am Jul 30, 2008 5:26am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting intrieri22
Yes - it was stopped out and should be added as a loss. Market conditions or not
It hit 61 - I've got it here and on Reuters.......dont worry about it relax......I'm just here to help when I can and here on a voluntary basis. Lower right hand corner.
Unless I chime in and say its a no-go the levels are still good. Only biggest rule I wouldnt say anything is trading around news times. That we've mentioned quite a bit here.
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  • #1,810
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:28am Jul 30, 2008 5:28am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I have 61 on my MT platform. Normally I would from the middle, or best entry like I described but I didnt write it in the post, so I was just trying to be fair. Because some of these dont go to the middle of the range at all. Anyway, again numbers are there just to prove what we do here works, really nothing else.
What do you think of this going long at this level: .9451 is strong support and the yearly diagonal trendline is at .9458 - looks good to me, even with all the dollar buying pressure. Thanks for your help.
  • #1,811
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:39am Jul 30, 2008 5:39am
Quoting observer2000
Hi BRV,

Thank you for this thread. Your method looks very solid but we definitely need to get a bigger and (more importantly) more consistent sample to analyze the statistical significance of "No Brainer Trades".

I would like to propose a more consistent way to gather this sample. Can you please maintain a table of officially suggested/approved trades, something like this http://sites.google.com/site/nobrainertrades on daily basis?

I understand that you are busy so as my contribution to this thread I can maintain this table myself. We can ask everybody to submit their proposals by email to me, I can publish them on the URL above, you can revise them and either mark as approved or rejected. After that I can prepare the same performance stats as yours only on approved trades.

Please let me know if you or anybody are interested

Thanks
Oleg
Yes, please. The structure of a forum thread doesn't lend itself to easy tracking of NB suggestions and follow-ups. Of course, it would need some method whereby a 'suggestion' would get an OK to be on the NB database. Any views on this BRV?
  • #1,812
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:40am Jul 30, 2008 5:40am
Quoting Grath
Yes, please. The structure of a forum thread doesn't lend itself to easy tracking of NB suggestions and follow-ups. Of course, it would need some method whereby a 'suggestion' would get an OK to be on the NB database. Any views on this BRV?
Oh yeah I'm all for it.....I'm just having a hard time keeping up to be quite honest, so if the offer is there then by all means I would be very happy to see that. I'm really appreciative of the offer.
  • #1,813
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:44am Jul 30, 2008 5:44am
The ADP payroll number this morning should provide some crazy action. That number seems to be completely unpredictable. Not to mention the current market conditions. Glad I don't trade the news. I'm hoping it causes some USD weakness so I get some better spots to buy it.
  • #1,814
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:50am Jul 30, 2008 5:50am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Yeah that would be great if you would like to tackle it. I'll admit, in hindsight, that I really dont think I'm going to have the time to keep up with everyone elses, but if you would like to go ahead and start doing so please be my guest, I would really appreciate it. I'll keep going ahead with mine but if you would like to start posting them then by all means that would be great. I'll put the link on the first page with the other stuff. Thanks alot, please let me know if you need anything.

One thing that I dont think thats been working out as well is if people are just talking about a trade or really calling it, so I would ask anyone that if you would like to have it tracked just to write the word "Track" on the post with the trade, preferrably in the subject line.

Thanks again,
BRV,

Great! The only problem that I still see right now is "validation process". We might have a lot of proposed trades but not all of them will be valid "No Brainer Trades". How can we come to a decision which trade to include into final performance report?

I see only 3 possible solutions:
1. You can give your approval on those trades.
2. You can name those who agree to participate and whom you trust.
3. We can try to vote for proposed trades with our own judgement. But I doubt it is possible because we will need to collect all votes before the trade is made. Post factum, it doesnt have any value.

I definitely would prefer to have a "clear" sample which represents the method itself. Is it possible at all? If not, then any performance report wount have any value.

So, guys, any idea?
  • #1,815
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:58am Jul 30, 2008 5:58am
If you were scalping for 10 to 40 PIPs, would you stay with the 40 PIP SL? It just seems to me that on these kinds of targets I would be using 4H and 1H charts to set up the trade and 15M or 5M charts to time the entry and maintain the trade. Isn't 40 PIPs a long way to go on short time frame charts. Or are you looking at it as an emergency stop that almost never gets hit and if the price gets close, say 20 to 39 PIPs, then you can look at the trade as a bust and try to get out at a better price.

Would it make sense to go to a 10 or 20 PIP SL on these types of plays, with the idea that that kind of move signifies a bust?

I would think that you should either have a very short leash on the trade (10 -20 PIPs) or give it some running room (40PIPs) with the posibility of "saving" the trade.

Does any of this make sense? Or do I sound like a scared trader?

Thanks for sharing your method with us and for your patience.
  • #1,816
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:56am Jul 30, 2008 6:56am
Quoting observer2000
BRV,

Great! The only problem that I still see right now is "validation process". We might have a lot of proposed trades but not all of them will be valid "No Brainer Trades". How can we come to a decision which trade to include into final performance report?

I see only 3 possible solutions:
1. You can give your approval on those trades.
2. You can name those who agree to participate and whom you trust.
3. We can try to vote for proposed trades with our own judgement. But I doubt it is possible because we will need to collect all votes before the trade is made. Post factum, it doesnt have any value.

I definitely would prefer to have a "clear" sample which represents the method itself. Is it possible at all? If not, then any performance report wount have any value.

So, guys, any idea?
Hey observer2000,

Firstly, I think traking all the trade calls on a spreadsheet is a great idea!

However, I would suggest that as and when people put their own 'official' calls on here they simply get plugged into the spreadsheet. I'd say its pretty unreasonable to expect BRV to put more time into this thread than he already is. At the end of the day anyone who has been following this thread from the beginning has seen this technique work over and over again in different market conditions over the past two months.

If the levels we relative novices call fail, well, we learn from it and look at why it failed. Different people will read the market differently and I for one am interested in seeing these different takes on it. As we all practice the technique, the stats of the calls should improve as we all start calling better and better 'no brainer' levels. I know my own trading has come a long way since I started following S+R and binned the indicators.

All this thread needs really to 'prove the technique' is the calls of the thread's creator on the front page.....I think we can all agree that his calls have been nothing short of spectacular.

Cheers,

SMP
  • #1,817
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:47am Jul 30, 2008 7:47am
It seems to me that a lot of the earlier more experienced members of this thread who were contributing invaluable insights into forex trading and trading S+R have become a lot less involved. Some have disappeared all together. I suspect that its partly due to a lot of people joining in and asking questions that have already been answered a thousand times earlier on, as well as those who seem to be practically looking for someone to trade their accounts for them, and spoon feed them trade entries/exits.

For those just joining the thread I've got a tiny suggestion - READ THE WHOLE THING BEFORE ASKING A QUESTION!!!! I will virtually guarantee that anything you're asking in relation to currency pairs, picking levels, trading around news times, diagonal trendlines, stop losses, scalping, fibonnaci numbers, managing trades, using market orders, taking profits, time frames to trade on, times of day to trade, trading against the trend, entering trades early/late, what time of day is best for making coffee and a whole lot more has already been asked and answered lots of times. If you seriously cant be bothered to spend a couple of hours reading through the thread to gain insight into what its about then move on - its really not rocket science, its reading. The major posts even have links to them on the front page....it really really cant be made much easier.

I hope this doesnt sound out of order, and I honestly dont mean any offence to anyone, but I dont believe I can be the only person thinking this. I'm sure we've all got enough common sense to see that if you keep demanding more and more from those more experienced than ourselves and effectively wasting their time, when they've got their own accounts to trade and manage, they'll simply leave the thread.....and that would be a great shame. We've been given a very powerful set of tools....how we use them is down to us as individuals, and not those who have chosen to share them with us.

Just my opinion, as I said, no offence meant. I'll stop ranting now!

Happy trading!

SMP
  • #1,818
  • Edited 7:53am Jul 30, 2008 7:50am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Anyway, again numbers are there just to prove what we do here works, really nothing else.
That's a fair call - and thanks again for everything you've shared in here.

Quoting Siam
That offer is indeed generous and also seems a little odd as to why you think i'ts such a good idea
Erm... because it's a) generous and b) sounds as though it will save a lot of time?...

[Sorry if two infrequent posters agreeing with each other is usually a sign of bizarre double logins on FF, but I'm afraid the truth in this instance is much more boring...]

P.S. Good call, Smokey.
  • #1,819
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:19am Jul 30, 2008 9:19am
Hello

is the call for a short UJ from 108.40-60 still valid??

cheers
kim
  • #1,820
  • Jul 30, 2008 9:27am Jul 30, 2008 9:27am
It still looks valid to me ;].
I'm waiting for 10-20 pips scalp at 1.9715 gbp/usd. Major reverse area at 1.9665

Buy @ 213.70 gbp/jpy looks good to me after clear bounce from diagonal trendline.
I expect retest of this area and pretty good ride.
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