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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #11,041
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:03pm Jul 30, 2008 3:03pm
The down is not going to happen...... Apparently everyone is doubting the power of dollar and coming this Friday you will see just how much power the dollar does have...... look out - here comes the 110.00
  • #11,042
  • Jul 30, 2008 3:12pm Jul 30, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting P51_Group
The down is not going to happen...... Apparently everyone is doubting the power of dollar and coming this Friday you will see just how much power the dollar does have...... look out - here comes the 110.00
Yeah right.
  • #11,043
  • Edited 3:57pm Jul 30, 2008 3:45pm | Edited 3:57pm
there is one more possible senario , this weekly h&s + break out of the 61.8 fibo fan level , then .. the target of this pattern is about 116.00!! , this coming days will show us the way..

for now , I switched from long to short my stop is 108.37 if I will get stopped I'll go long?!?!
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  • #11,044
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:04pm Jul 30, 2008 4:04pm
Laughing - I really don't see how any of you can make any money with this pair traveling up over 1200 pips in 4 months and you still crying short....... Have it and I'll keep raking in the money with the longs.
  • #11,045
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:07pm Jul 30, 2008 4:07pm
Quoting P51_Group
Laughing - I really don't see how any of you can make any money with this pair traveling up over 1200 pips in 4 months and you still crying short....... Have it and I'll keep raking in the money with the longs.
Its called day trading.
  • #11,046
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:10pm Jul 30, 2008 4:10pm
Quoting Seaward22
Its called day trading.
You don't have to tell me about day trading - I'm a retired trader for JP Morgan. Good luck.
  • #11,047
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:34pm Jul 30, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting P51_Group
Laughing - I really don't see how any of you can make any money with this pair traveling up over 1200 pips in 4 months and you still crying short....... Have it and I'll keep raking in the money with the longs.
I'm looking at about 102.5 to test the TL again, 108.5 is tough resistance
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  • #11,048
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:43pm Jul 30, 2008 4:43pm
Quoting ak4x
Ok, but the immediate things that come to mind are that saying "good probability" doesn't make it probable, and I'm clueless as to what might make it more probable now than it's been over the last many weeks, and you didn't say...

As far as a long term trade, and this could be quite a long term before you hit either TP or SL, paying swap and long term are a curious mix of concepts... Don't forget to add the swap you pay onto your 300 pip SL, which is more probable with current market direction, especially if it takes a while. That will change your R/R... Hope this is a demo trade or "nano" lot.
im a day trader and occassionally put trades on that run for longer (when the risk reward is warranted) than a few days (long term for me!), sorry for the confusion my friend!

The US dollar is a fundamentally flawed currency.
The dollar rally from March 08 versus the Yen is baffling, this move has gone further than it should have because the euro and pound have absolutely no where in past few months. So you have to ask the question why are people keep buying dollars verus the Yen?

A contention is that there are some seriously desperate people ie fund managers, banks, looking to borrow money on the cheap and get themselves through the year end with no regard for the exchange rate risk. (They borrow in Yen and convert in US dollars). Therefore when this phenomenon is unwound the move down will be very fast and violent back to 100 Yen.

If you look at 3month US T-Bill yield chart u shall find it is very similar to dollar yen chart same maturity pointing to lower yields leading the way for fall in dollar yen.

Again i have my set money management trading plan, risking only few % of my account! rest assured im no demo trader neither do i trade nano lots!

I suspect this to happen in august/early september so im holding on until then, my timing may not 100% at 108.00 could well squeeze to 110.00 but any higher than 111.00 then im out and my contention would be wrong. Oh well stops are not just for buses are they!

Trade at your own risk as Sham would say
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,049
  • Edited 5:43pm Jul 30, 2008 4:57pm | Edited 5:43pm
[quote=ak4x;2137821]Ok, but the immediate things that come to mind are that saying "good probability" doesn't make it probable, and I'm clueless as to what might make it more probable now than it's been over the last many weeks, and you didn't say...


nothing in trading world is 100% for sure, anything can happen, you trade your edge and whenever your edge defines a higher probablity of one result happening over another you go for it within your money management system. Simple really, trading is a probability game.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,050
  • Jul 30, 2008 4:58pm Jul 30, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting P51_Group
You don't have to tell me about day trading - I'm a retired trader for JP Morgan. Good luck.
I'm not telling you about day trading. Very sensitive you are.

My point is it doesn't matter if jpyusd goes to 111. It retraces countless amounts of time, as you know. You retire from working for the devil, do you think investment banks will be shut down?
  • #11,051
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:34pm Jul 30, 2008 5:34pm
Quoting fx local
im a day trader and occassionally put trades on that run for longer (when the risk reward is warranted) than a few days (long term for me!), sorry for the confusion my friend!
Quoting fx local
...listen pal, nothing in trading world is 100% for sure, anything can happen, you trade your edge and whenever your edge defines a higher probablity of one result happening over another you go for it...
Liked the tone of your first post that helped to explain an otherwise extraordinary trade that you first posted w/o any explanation (not that you're required to explain anything anyway) more than your second one... meant no offense. Sounds like you've got everything covered. Good luck with your trade.
FUBAR...
  • #11,052
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:48pm Jul 30, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting ak4x
Liked the tone of your first post that helped to explain an otherwise extraordinary trade that you first posted w/o any explanation (not that you're required to explain anything anyway) more than your second one... meant no offense. Sounds like you've got everything covered. Good luck with your trade.
thanks man, sory for any bad tone, not question of luck, luck and trading success are mutually exclusive.

happy trading
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,053
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:04pm Jul 30, 2008 11:04pm
Maybe UJ..will be move down to 107.30 today.
Any comment.?
  • #11,054
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:45pm Jul 30, 2008 11:45pm
from your observation when does this pair usually trends?

i think 6-5am EST?
  • #11,055
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:46pm Jul 30, 2008 11:46pm
there is many news for usd today and
may offer is buy stop and sell stop
  • #11,056
  • Jul 31, 2008 12:50am Jul 31, 2008 12:50am
I think its good for a short now as it is. It is retesting yesterdays levels. dfxclub gave a good level to go short the other day and it was worth wh'le to na'l 't around 108.30.

A retest of 108.20 is already done so a short around here while its high is not such a bad call.

Good luck guys
  • #11,057
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:03am Jul 31, 2008 1:03am
Quoting xforex
I think its good for a short now as it is. It is retesting yesterdays levels. dfxclub gave a good level to go short the other day and it was worth wh'le to na'l 't around 108.30.

A retest of 108.20 is already done so a short around here while its high is not such a bad call.

Good luck guys
I just love it when you guys talk short. I go long and just rake in all the money. Keep talking short so I can get rich real fast.
  • #11,058
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:18am Jul 31, 2008 1:18am
can you show us some fact why you think for long position
we are here to disciss and to win against the market
you can help us we can help you
  • #11,059
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:30am Jul 31, 2008 1:30am
Still tight within the 107.8 - 108.2 zone... think we going to see a breakdown tonight?
  • #11,060
  • Jul 31, 2008 1:42am Jul 31, 2008 1:42am
Quoting mitiaib
can you show us some fact why you think for long position
we are here to disciss and to win against the market
you can help us we can help you
You want to become a winner; then spend some time and learn about pivots. In the last 4 months this pair has climbed over 1200 pips and during that climb the pivots had kept me in profit every inch of the way.
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