Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Forex Factory

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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 28, 2008 4:14pm Jul 28, 2008 4:14pm
I've been asked to resurrect the old thread that dealt with pivots, psychs and trend lines. (I should probably put fibs in there also)

Not Sure why... only a handful of you read the first one.

Let's take a look EURUSD on a 4HR chart.

It's a naked chart with only a fib of our last down move and a trend line.

Does the EURO have enough energy to make it to the 50 level? (Near the powerful psych level of .5800.)

I'm guessing yes.

However... if it does... will it have enough energy to make it past three barriers that are creating strong bearish confluence?

NO WAY.... UNLESS NFP paints more horribly than estimated.

What are they:

1) .5800 level. Anything ending in 00 are the most important psych levels.
2) %50 fib level of current down leg.
3) Trend line from recent highs

Should these three levels drawn close to one another the confluence (I like that word) of the three will seriously deter the bulls.

Prior to the European session I'll post possible trade set ups based on this approach to trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD4HRJuly28.GIF Size: 15 KB
  • #2
  • Jul 28, 2008 4:20pm Jul 28, 2008 4:20pm
If you are interested on how I trade this system check out this link.

http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Videos.htm

Download the Pivot Point System and give it a look. (Be patient - small pipe)

Nothing novel.

It's all 'out there' - I simply combine the three when I trade.
  • #3
  • Jul 28, 2008 9:27pm Jul 28, 2008 9:27pm
This could be a tricky session.

In the pic below you can see .5720 and a trend line forming confluence.

At some point during the session I believe price will move to that triangle and bounce off of it.

Should price move through the trend line, pull back and the proceed south it will likely hit .5700.

Should it hit .5750, pull back and move north it SHOULD move to R1 although trading will most likely be quite choppy.

How will I trade it. I believe we are likely to see a move above .5750 during the session. If price hits .5750 AND pulls back then moves up again I will scalp that move.

I will scalp a sustained move below the .5720 wedge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurSessionJuly28.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #4
  • Jul 28, 2008 9:34pm Jul 28, 2008 9:34pm
I won't trade any action during the Asian session.

Too many head fakes.

If we move out of the area outlined in my last post I'm out.

I'll sleep or watch the price action...OK... most likely sleep and wait for consumer confidence to bring the Euro back down.

I live on the East coast so the European Session begins at 2:00am.
  • #5
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:31am Jul 29, 2008 10:31am
We should see some heavy consolidation around the .5600 level.

Additionally it's a fib level.

SHOULD...

I'd like to see a dead cat bounce before I take another short but the EURO bulls aren't looking too Optimistic.

If we don't see the famed dcb I'll sit on the sidelines until the EURO session.
  • #6
  • Jul 29, 2008 11:12am Jul 29, 2008 11:12am
Hi acumen,

nice to have you back here. I´ve been reading your first thread and posted some charts.
I hope i can contribute some ideas to this thread.

Good luck for your trades !!
Don´t live for working, but work for living.
  • #7
  • Jul 29, 2008 2:11pm Jul 29, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting matsf
Hi acumen,

nice to have you back here. I´ve been reading your first thread and posted some charts.
I hope i can contribute some ideas to this thread.

Good luck for your trades !!
Thanks.
  • #8
  • Edited 2:44pm Jul 29, 2008 2:28pm | Edited 2:44pm
So - todays move was impressive but I'm not overly excited yet.

Dollar longs today were fueled by outside factors... Oil weakness and equity strength not on its own merit.

Is the bias changing... sure... but the Euro isn't down for the count... yet.

I'll be back prior to the Euro session for pivot and psych level thoughts.
  • #9
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:44pm Jul 29, 2008 5:44pm
Hi acumen.
Nice to see you back again. I kept your original thread on favourites, and have referred back to it on numerous occasions. Pivots, Fibs, Psych-lines, plus the odd trend-line here and there. I just love the clean simplicity of it all!!

Cheers
  • #10
  • Jul 29, 2008 7:39pm Jul 29, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting eyevoltage
Hi acumen.
Nice to see you back again. I kept your original thread on favourites, and have referred back to it on numerous occasions. Pivots, Fibs, Psych-lines, plus the odd trend-line here and there. I just love the clean simplicity of it all!!

Cheers
I read your post on the old thread.

Very kind words.

Thank you.

I will try to be better about keeping up.
  • #11
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:41pm Jul 29, 2008 9:41pm
The chart below is a pic of the EURUSD on the daily time frame.

Two things to note.

Firstly - we are sitting right at a fib level... the last one until .5300 and it should hold through the Euro session... at least until release time.

Secondly - the red line is a long term support line and will offer stiff resistance if we move there any time in the near future.
Attached Image
  • #12
  • Jul 29, 2008 9:50pm Jul 29, 2008 9:50pm
I'm on the sideline until ADP. (Released at 8:15 EST)

Once the numbers are out I'll wait until the noise settles.

If we break the long term fib after the release I'll be looking to sell psych levels and pivot point breaks.

If we move up I'll look to scalp psych level breaks.

I'll try to post a chart prior to ADP.
  • #13
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:18pm Jul 29, 2008 10:18pm
acumen
hi , and thanks
i am trying to download the fpivot point system , it is 50 + megabytes. why so heavy whats inside . is it absolutly necessery to understand your strategy to download this file ?
thnaks again
  • #14
  • Jul 30, 2008 7:02am Jul 30, 2008 7:02am
Quoting imad
acumen
hi , and thanks
i am trying to download the fpivot point system , it is 50 + megabytes. why so heavy whats inside . is it absolutly necessery to understand your strategy to download this file ?
thnaks again
You know... I never looked at the file size.

If you read the old thread with the same name as this one you don't have to watch the video.

It's just easier to watch and learn than read and learn.
  • #15
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:12am Jul 30, 2008 11:12am
Hopefully those following the thread were able to pick up a few pips after the secondary break of support.

The market will likely move sideways until GDP and some movement north is to be expected.

We are oversold at these levels.

I'll post some set ups prior to the European session.
  • #16
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:45pm Jul 30, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting acumen
If you are interested on how I trade this system check out this link.

http://www.thefxpivotpoint.com/Videos.htm

Download the Pivot Point System and give it a look. (Be patient - small pipe)

Nothing novel.

It's all 'out there' - I simply combine the three when I trade.
Hi Acumen

Thank you for showing your trading method.

I have found psych levels to be very useful in my trading , although I am still a beginner. I have been trading live now with a small account for about 4 months , I am still at break even, but gaining knowledge all the time.


I find this indicator for psych levels very useful, I think it was found here, at the Forex Factory.

Marshy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SDX-SweetSpots1[1].ex4   3 KB | 3,946 downloads
File Type: mq4 SDX-SweetSpots1[1].mq4   3 KB | 4,276 downloads
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #17
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:20pm Jul 30, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting marshy
Hi Acumen

Thank you for showing your trading method.

I have found psych levels to be very useful in my trading , although I am still a beginner. I have been trading live now with a small account for about 4 months , I am still at break even, but gaining knowledge all the time.


I find this indicator for psych levels very useful, I think it was found here, at the Forex Factory.

Marshy.
I won't have to continue drawing them.
  • #18
  • Edited 8:56pm Jul 30, 2008 8:54pm | Edited 8:56pm
News out tomorrow in the US that's another market mover.

GDP @ 8:30am and the expectations are it SHOULD paint positive.

Again - I will wait until it's been released and watch price action.

My guess is a move down then sideways.

Friday is NFP - A day I won't trade - It's the best day of the month to lose money.

Watch the pivot point and the psych levels.

Wait until price touches a psych level or pivot, PULLS BACK, and moves down again. It should create a triangle above the level of interest.

Take a look at the attached pic.

Check out .5580. (psych level) Notice how price hits this level, retraces and heads south several bars later. That's what you are looking for. (I've drawn a red vertical line to show the bar I'm talking about.)

Another thing to note... .5580 acted as resistance the rest of the session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5580.GIF Size: 13 KB
  • #19
  • Jul 31, 2008 7:46pm Jul 31, 2008 7:46pm
I'm enjoying watching your videos, mate (October and December). I'll have to set aside a fair amount of time to download the November one (roughly 600Mb or so), as our super-fast broadband over here in the UK just isn't........well....... super-fast, I'm afraid. I'm supposed to get 8MB download speed......my local exchange can't manage more than 4MB (so it says)......and in reality, I end up with around 250KB, would you believe? Bloody hopeless over here, mate......still using copper wire, whilst everywhere else is on fibre optics.

Still, like I said, I'm enjoying watching how you approach "trading the lines", so to speak. Nothing like watching a bit of "hands on", now and again. Much better than the written word, I reckon.

Cheers again, mate.
  • #20
  • Jul 31, 2008 8:00pm Jul 31, 2008 8:00pm
It's getting on for 2.00am here, so I thought I'd post this chart before heading off to bed.

As you can see, price on cable has opened below the Pivot Point. I've drawn a trend-line (a 4-pointer), just to see what happens in the morning. As you can see, the purple lines are .00 .25 .50 .75 sweetspots, and the blue dotted lines are Mid-point lines.

See you tomorrow.
Cheers
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