Piptrain trade journal and performance

Cable weekly chart, 2 head and shoulders formed, both with neckline at 1.9400. This support line has been very strong in the past. If USD continues in its strength, we may see this line break soon, the pink line would show potential first target for the smaller of the two head and shoulders. Since weekly is such a big time frame, will have to keep this pattern in mind for targets while shorting beneath 1.94.

If 1.9400 holds up, then continued ranging between 1.94 - 1.98.

Note: interesting that we had two daily inverse h&s patterns that both failed to the downside in the past few weeks. Does this mean price does want to break the 1.94?

+63 on GU L, off the 1.9400 support.
+28 on GJ L

cheers

3 trades today:
GJ S, +11
GJ L, +20
GJ L, +40

Price did not quite reach the target around 213.30 area and has dropped off a bit. Back below that trendline, in fact. 211.50 holding upward motion vigorously. Fib from 203.80 low to the high at 212.80 and 50% of that move is right at 208.50, a very very important level recently. My guess is that retracement may head there, before any additional up moves. Just a guess. I am watching the 4h cci 0 line for confirmation of retracement.

Weekly pivot is at 209.15.

2 inside daily candles..... and positive divergence on hourly chart, maybe price wants to retest the high first? Break of 211.50 or 210.90 might be the way to go.

cheers

trades today:
GJ long +40
GJ long +40
GJ long +30

short GJ @ 212.65
target 211.8
stop loss: 213.13

negative divergence on the 4h cci

closed gj short @ 212.76, -11

Ahhhh, soon after i closed the gj S, price went to my target.

seeing that the 38% fib of the recent move has held support all during london, made me nervous for further shorting, thats why i closed that.

oh well, more midnight train will be caught next week!

the yellow 50sma is holding as support on the 4h gj chart, for now. large negative divergence on the cci. if new low achieved soon, then shorts can target the 4h 100sma, which is near the 38% retracement line.

i would really like to see price back above the weekly pivot at 211.90 before going long again, due to the divergence..

4h gj. New daily pivot is 212.32, which is also the daily 5sma. If we get a 30m close below the 212.32, I will short, looking for target of 211.20 area. Eventually possibly to the 4h 100sma, near 209.75 now. stop loss will be placed above the current high at 212.98. since UJ and GU are also both near their respective pivot points, 107.79 and 1.9685, all these pairs seems toppish here. Especially watching GU with its monthly pivot here also at 1.9698, and the daily trendline holding resistance near 1.9715 area now. i do not see that the negative divergence on the gj 4h has played out, and also have identified neg divergence on the daily chart as well.

big news day tomorrow, i am hoping this trade plays out prior to the USD interest rate decision. but it is quite possible that all will come screatching to a halt until that news release.

i was two days too early on my short call for GJ Oil making a new high today helped with the dow sell off, USD weakness, and GJ fall.

But today i played the shorts to make up for my -80 pips loss the other day.

check the UJ daily chart, the price fall today ran exactly to the daily trendline and stopped. will it bounce?

Looks like 1.9800 was the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders pattern, broken not long ago. The pink line shows potential target for longs. Interesting too that the 261% extension, and a previous 161% extension both go to the same spot: 2.0150. I was looking to buy at the 4h 50ema, price did not quite get there during this last dip. I will buy there if we get another dip, or, if price keeps heading up from here, I will buy the break of 1.9960 area, where the 4h gann is. New daily pivot is 1.9917.

That GU certainly did not pan out for longs. I bought off the 4h 50ema but closed the trade after -25 loss.

1 trade L gj today for +39.

The range on the 4h GJ is 210.20 to 212.10 area. Daily gann keeps holding support, so just keep trading this range til we get a decent break of hi or low. Can't really feel great about longs up here until the 4h gann is broken and closed above 211.80..

weekly pp: 211.13

Daily gj chart.

Price hitting the trendline up from the low at 192, at 210. The gann is flipping, adx starting to point for downside move, the cci is at the 0 and pointing down and momentum is down. If today closes at these levels (below the gann at 210.70), then more downside to come I believe. Even as I write this 210 broke.

209.78: monthly pp.
209.00: previous resistance
208.50: next support area

Once 208.50 area gives, I will target the daily 100sma near 205.90/206.00. This level is also the 38% retrace on the daily chart from the 192 low to the 214 high. This level is also near the weekly gann indicator...

could be nice.

GJ big reversal the past two days. I was able to snag about 100 pips today up to the R2 pivot at 211.80, which was near the daily gann at 211.90, then i shut down figuring it was done. i was a bit surprised when i checked in later to see it hit 213.50!! So now what? I must think up is the name of the game for Friday, daily momentum is pointing up and poking thru the 100 line. Maybe a dip down to the daily pivot at 211.80 then back up.

EU 4h chart. the head & shoulders pattern in pink and neckline at 1.5875 was broken and the target extends down to 1.5700. Price has not been able to break thru the 4h 50ema so far, but looks more and more like it wants to. Once price brakes the 50ema, I will be shorting with target of 1.5700. cheers.

eu h&s played out to the target for about 100 pips.

inverse H&s with blue trendline and neckline broke, and has retested and back up. measuring gets target up to 110.20ish. lets see if it gets there. today, another inverse h&s on 30m got me into L uj at 40. target is wkly pp at 108.10. check how nice the stochastics are for up move, and cci thru the 0 line pointing up.

Nice inside daily candle on GJ closed today. High is 214.88, low is 213.68. Break of either of these and I will be trading it, in that direction. See here my 4h chart. Price currently at daily pivot at 30, and above the wkly pivot at 214.07. If price bounces off the wkly pp and heads up to break 88, I can see another test of the monthly R1 pivot at 215.60. This would go along with the GANN holding support as well (blue line). If tomorrow price does head up and break last wk high, then wkly R1 can come in. However, break down of the wkly pivot and yesterday low, I can see first stop at the 4h 50ema (yellow), then on to the wkly S1 level, which is also 4h 100sma, 212.30 area. I have no bias right now, I feel mixed since price has remained in an uptrend for some weeks now, but price has made a couple lower highs now, may need to retrace more...

cheers


ps, i cant help but stare at the wkly s2 exactly on top of the monthly pivot at 209.78. Lets see how the week plays out before trying for that one. hehe..

With oil tanking and dow up, buying USD has been lovely today. Here is daily EU chart. Breaking the monthly pivot at 1.5633, which is also the neckline of a large head & shoulders pattern. Measuring gets a target at 1.5200ish. Wowie! The daily 200ema is around there, and note that the daily 220ema has not been touched for 2 yrs. is it time to head there? lets see that price remains below the monthly pivot this week, and then see where August monthly pivots are starting on Friday. But for further downside this week, the daily 100ema looks good (white ema). NFP week, so will have to pay attn.

targets:
1.5550
1.5450 (wkly s2)
1.5300 (previous low)
1.5130-1.5200 (daily 200ema)

Big time frame, could take alot of time for this to play out. be careful. if price retakes monthly pivot at 1.5633 then time to reevaluate.