Piptrain trade journal and performance

After more analysis, 1.5580 is 62% of the 1.53 to 1.6030 move. i am actually thinking LONGS off of this fib level until it breaks down, if it breaks down. fundamentally, can the USD sustain this strength seen this week?? good question...

July stats:

922 pips
48 trades
89% winners

Price came down to t2 from last week's post, 212.20 area, and now the 4h 200ema is supporting. 211.85 is the 50% of the last up move, I am thinking to buy near that level and target a run to the wkly pivot at 213.18, which is also near the 50ema. My only concern about continued downside is that the daily chart cci is poking down through the 0 line. Caution. So once price nears the 211.85 area, I will not enter until I see some confirmation of a bounce or oversold condition.

If 211.85 area does not hold, then I see 210.87 next, this is the both the weekly M1 and monthly M2 levels, and also 62% fib.

the h&s pattern is still in play on the daily chart, and that 1.5580 62% fib seems to have given way to further downside. i was wondering if we might see a try at the new monthly pivot at 1.5719 before really heading down, but so far, no. as long as oil continues to slide, then EU should follow. Amazing too how on the weekly chart price has been controlled by the 21ema since 2006, and here we are sitting right on it at 1.5530. So this week's close will be very important, if below the 21ema. Break of the recent low at 1.5515 and next i see 1.5300. then on down to 1.5200 area, the target for the h&s, and also monthly s2 and the daily 200ema..

Beginnings of negative divergence on the daily cci, marked in blue. i will try shorts below the wkly pivot at 109.84. targets would seek first 108.30 shelf, then 107.50 then monthly pivot at 106.70 area. if this divergence does begin to play out to down side, the pivot point theory would coincide with these targets.

Actually.... how can you see anything on those charts???????

GU wkly chart. the head & shoulders broke the neckline at 1.94 and never looked back. now after the glorious moves of the past two week, i expect some retrace up to about 1.90 area, this is wkly 200, oh and HOURLY 200 happens to also be there. this retrace could happen quickly. in blue is marked a down channel, and the 38% retrace of the down move is near 1.90 at 1.9150. also near this level is the blue trendline from the monthly lows. so at some point between these two level i expect the retrace to end and continued down to begin again, fresh. there is potential for retrace to extend to the 50% mark at 1.9400 area, which was the neckline. in orange is a second steeper down channel. the h&s target is pointing to 1.75 area. so in pink extending to the right is the target area extending to where the orange channel comes in. this weekly target looks to extend out several weeks, possibly sept/oct.

also, mr. fibonacci measured this recent down move and the 161% also points to 1.7500 area.

4 P's: Patience Pays Pretty Pips

cheers

here is a nice gj daily chart. check the two blue boxes, first one happened back in feb08 after the monster fall, 9 daily bars of consolidation between 203.50-208.00. Second blue box is current price action again between 203.50 and 208.00. will we need another 9 daily bars before the next break out? i have also marked the 50% of the 192 - 216 move, at 204, in blue. so far it is important and is holding the daily wicks. i am thinking price will stay in this blue box and bounce between 203.50-208 for a bit longer, so will play this range. i will repost when this box breaks. see u then.

the blue box appears to be holding the bodies of the candles, so far. noted too is possible positive divergence on the cci. monday-tuesday will be interesting, since we have an inside daily candle for friday. my bias is for price to stay in the blue box and in fact make a try for 208 area. i do not have the pivots for next week yet, so will make better targets on monday. for downside possibilities: breakdown of the 61% at 201.40 means a test to 192.50 low.

cheers

ps, watching GU daily also, 1.8500 is key area and may break down. the massive head & shoulders pattern noted some weeks ago is still pointing to 1.7600 for target

pss, UJ also at key resistance near 110.40. the daily gann is holding this resistance. must watch all three price action on monday..

261% fib extension on GJ weekly chart is holding, so far, at 168.50ish.

But i would need to see cci NOT pointing straight down, in order to get excited about some turn around..

cheers

here is 4h GJ chart. now that weekly momentum and cci are pointing up and also the daily cci and momentum are pointing up, i can see potential for UP. In orange is marked a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern with neckline in orange around 180.50. Yellow ma is the 50sma, currently supporting price. i will keep my upward bias as long as this ma holds support. price may only be able to reach the neckline and not actually break it. this week's volatility may be hard trading. but the weekly 5sma is certainly needing a touch soon, i think. it is currently around 180.75 (also the neckline!)

Also note that around 180 is the monthly trendline that was broken. will this monthly candle close above or below this line??

cheers

ps: monthly m1 pivot is 180.23, this pivot has been strong resistance so far this month, also near our neckline

4H chart showing positive divergence on the cci, in blue. Close above the 5sma and also 151.00 may be interesting for LONGS. Otherwise, more down. On the downside, 423% extension goes to 135.50.

trendline break to the upside. potential target pointing to 106.00 area.

usdchf tight range last week, making an inside wkly candle. break of the high or low should give up some nice pips. set alert for 1.1300 and 1.1100 (monthly pivot).

GBPUSD also an inside wkly candle. Above monthly pivot at 1.4880 could send this pair up to test the down trendline near 1.5200. Below wkly pivot at 1.4770 could spell continued downside.

audusd L looks good above monthly pivot at 0.6825. target1 to wkly R1 which is 161.8% at 0.6970. target2 to wkly R2, 261% at 0.7210.

UJ inside daily candle and the triangle on the 4h chart. Which way will she break?

The 4h triangle break on the UJ produced +250 pips to the downside. Now, a down channel looks to be forming. Nice how price retraced back to the top line and the 23% fibo held. Now price may continue to fall and eventually reach 94.50 area, the 138% fib extension and also a recent resistance that will surely pose support.

Above the top line and definitely above 99.00 will negate this trade plan.

cheers

GJ daily is sitting at the 50% fib of recent down move, after today's big rally off the lows. 50% is near 136.40. Since the Gann hilo flipped some days ago and price dropped below the trendline up from the low at 119.00, there is possibility for price to retest that trendline, near the Gann at 139.50. Today's daily candle does appear to be a bullish engulfing to support further gain up to there. However, if 50% or 61% do hold then sellers may come back in.

monthly pivot is in play at 135.58

Greetings,

GJ made a nice inside daily candle today, the 50% of Monday held shorts at bay. A break of the orange trendline to the upside could target the recent highs at 141.50. Below 138 negates this trade plan. We are long from 138.56.