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Piptrain trade journal and performance

  • #121
  • Mar 19, 2009 3:30pm Mar 19, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting piptrain
Greetings,

GJ made a nice inside daily candle today, the 50% of Monday held shorts at bay. A break of the orange trendline to the upside could target the recent highs at 141.50. Below 138 negates this trade plan. We are long from 138.56.
Stopped out on the long for -62.
Reversed the position for a sell at 137.90, tp +100
  • #122
  • Mar 19, 2009 4:25pm Mar 19, 2009 4:25pm
GJ has made another inside daily candle today, closing near the daily pivot at 137.14. Upside break of this familiar down trendline should target near 139. But downside is also possible. The triangle break to the downside may be good to today's low. Safest play is short below the low to the next target near 134.00.
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  • #123
  • Mar 20, 2009 12:51pm Mar 20, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting piptrain
GJ has made another inside daily candle today, closing near the daily pivot at 137.14. Upside break of this familiar down trendline should target near 139. But downside is also possible. The triangle break to the downside may be good to today's low. Safest play is short below the low to the next target near 134.00.
target reached, +121
  • #124
  • Edited 1:50pm Mar 20, 2009 1:17pm | Edited 1:50pm
done trading for the day but just looking at the GU chart, there is a down pointing wedge that comes to a point near the 61.8% of yesterday's up move. Couple that pattern with the 1.4335 support line that was resistance and this could be a nice buying opportunity for Sunday. Looks like an inside daily candle will form also. cheers.

EDIT: after further analysis of the daily chart, looks like a harami forming, which could bring the sellers back. will review more on sunday for the GU.
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  • #125
  • Mar 23, 2009 2:45pm Mar 23, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting piptrain
done trading for the day but just looking at the GU chart, there is a down pointing wedge that comes to a point near the 61.8% of yesterday's up move. Couple that pattern with the 1.4335 support line that was resistance and this could be a nice buying opportunity for Sunday. Looks like an inside daily candle will form also. cheers.

EDIT: after further analysis of the daily chart, looks like a harami forming, which could bring the sellers back. will review more on sunday for the GU.
day trade today for longs, +70 pips with entry at the 50ema near the daily pivot, 1.4483.

Monthly pivot at 1.4450 is holding nicely..
  • #126
  • Mar 23, 2009 4:08pm Mar 23, 2009 4:08pm
GJ weekly m4 held perfectly the high today, 141.83. Today is closing as another green candle, however, since M4 pivot is often a reversal pivot, there is potential to the downside for short trade. Another attempt up to make a true double top would be nicer entry for short, with stop above the M4. Targets down to the weekly pivot at 138.00, which is also the 261% extension of the last down move on the hourly. 61.8% of the whole move started 3 days ago is 137.75. This would be ideal for the next buy zone. Negative divergence on the hourly cci. Short term trend is UP, so caution.
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  • #127
  • Mar 24, 2009 12:29pm Mar 24, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting piptrain
GJ weekly m4 held perfectly the high today, 141.83....
this trade plan got tossed to the wind in asia trading today. i managed to make 3 trades during NY on this pair, 2 fading short trades for +50 each. and 1 long trade with the short term trend, +50. +150 total.

cheers
  • #128
  • Mar 25, 2009 10:21pm Mar 25, 2009 10:21pm
Inside daily bars on both GJ and UJ. Safest play to wait for a break. Up trendline was tested today and held. Below this trendline points to weekly resistance near 140.00. Break of today's high will negate this trade plan.
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  • #129
  • Mar 26, 2009 4:21pm Mar 26, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting piptrain
Inside daily bars on both GJ and UJ. Safest play to wait for a break. Up trendline was tested today and held. Below this trendline points to weekly resistance near 140.00. Break of today's high will negate this trade plan.
A second inside daily candle on GJ closing.. Friday could be a doozey. That TL will tell us the direction.
  • #130
  • Mar 26, 2009 5:04pm Mar 26, 2009 5:04pm
UJ daily has broken its down trendline. Price expected to test 99.00 then on to 99.65. This should pull GJ up.. as long as the TL holds support.
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  • #131
  • Edited 5:25pm Mar 26, 2009 5:09pm | Edited 5:25pm
Fib from Wed low to today high. Added upper trendline showing the new triangle. break out of this triangle to the north should target 145 area. breakout to the south should target first yesterday low at 141, then potential for 140 area. cheers.
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  • #132
  • Mar 27, 2009 8:11am Mar 27, 2009 8:11am
Quoting piptrain
Fib from Wed low to today high. Added upper trendline showing the new triangle. break out of this triangle to the north should target 145 area. breakout to the south should target first yesterday low at 141, then potential for 140 area. cheers.
triangle broke to the downside, entered S @ 141.96 for +93, entered second S @ 140.98 for +126.

139 is 61.8% of the upmove from 135.50 to recent highs at 145. so far nice price bounce there perfectly. today's close will be important to see if price may be ready to rebound to the upside if 139 holds.
  • #133
  • Apr 1, 2009 1:55pm Apr 1, 2009 1:55pm
Here is the daily UJ chart showing the current triangle formation. The ADX indicator is showing very ready for some breakout, the yellow trending line is near 20. wait for the break of this triangle to confirm direction of the next/new trend. There could be several more days of consolidation until price nears the apex of this triangle.

Also, this may correspond to the Dow testing the 7900 level. We have already seen one test last week with subsequent +200 point fall.
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  • #134
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:41pm Apr 3, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting piptrain
Here is the daily UJ chart showing the current triangle formation. The ADX indicator is showing very ready for some breakout, the yellow trending line is near 20. wait for the break of this triangle to confirm direction of the next/new trend. There could be several more days of consolidation until price nears the apex of this triangle.

Also, this may correspond to the Dow testing the 7900 level. We have already seen one test last week with subsequent +200 point fall.
This pattern broke to the upside with price near 100. The inverse head and shoulders pattern target points to 103.50 area. I am flat for the weekend but sunday night may reopen longs. Dow broke above 8000, today's close will be important. can the rally last?
  • #135
  • Apr 3, 2009 12:46pm Apr 3, 2009 12:46pm
GU up channel still in play but now we are seeing momentum topping and possible negative divergence building. monthly R1 at 148.50 held today high perfectly. Could be ready for some retracement to ready for the next up move. 4 long trades on this pair this week for +361.
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  • #136
  • Last Post: Apr 8, 2009 10:02am Apr 8, 2009 10:02am
GJ 4hour chart, head and shoulders pattern identified, in pink. Measure the head to the neckline of 600 pips, neckline is 145.50. Target points directly to the monthly pivot point at 139.50, also the 23.6% retracement from last weekly up move. Neckline at 145.50 could certainly hold or fake break in order to continue in line with the up trend channel. The 4hour 50ema, yellow, is in the way and pointing up, so watch that level. Below this 50ema and shorts should be safe. Cheers.
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