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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #11,021
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:08pm Jul 28, 2008 11:08pm
Quoting dfxclub
I will be short if it gets to 108.38/40
Right now that number really looks good.
  • #11,022
  • Jul 28, 2008 11:27pm Jul 28, 2008 11:27pm
Quoting P51_Group
Right now that number really looks good.
what number looks good?
  • #11,023
  • Jul 29, 2008 7:01am Jul 29, 2008 7:01am
Quoting Sole
what number looks good?
That number - 108 - and beyond.
  • #11,024
  • Jul 29, 2008 7:54am Jul 29, 2008 7:54am
its a great day for USD
  • #11,025
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:16pm Jul 29, 2008 5:16pm
The IMF says, "the Japanese economy has shown resilience to the U.S. slowdown and global financial turmoil" and "the yen remains undervalued relative to its longer-term value in real effective terms."

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2008 Article IV Consultation with Japan Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 08/92

July 29, 2008

"On monetary policy, given the low underlying inflation and the uncertain economic outlook, Directors saw little risk in delaying monetary tightening. They supported the Bank of Japan's approach of adopting a "wait and see" attitude and standing ready to respond flexibly should downside risks to economic activity materialize, or should inflation expectations worsen. Directors welcomed the Bank of Japan's enhanced communication strategy, which should strengthen public understanding of the authorities' policy intentions and help guide inflation expectations. Directors looked forward to a gradual normalization of interest rates once downside risks to growth recede."

"Directors supported the authorities' policy of a market determined exchange rate. Noting that the authorities have not intervened in the foreign exchange market since March 2004, Directors supported the authorities' policy of limiting intervention to counter excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements of the exchange rate. Directors noted the staff assessment that, although the focus of macroeconomic and structural policies is appropriate, the yen remains undervalued relative to its longer-term value in real effective terms. They also recognized that capital outflows related to Japanese investors' international diversification of assets might continue to contribute to the yen's weakness in the near future. Directors generally noted that, over the longer term, the yen could be expected to appreciate on the back of policy reforms that are expected to yield widespread productivity gains. A number of Directors underscored the importance of incorporating structural capital account factors into current account-based analyses of the equilibrium exchange rate."

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2008/pn0892.htm
  • #11,026
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:39pm Jul 29, 2008 5:39pm
Quoting naminori
The IMF says, "the Japanese economy has shown resilience to the U.S. slowdown and global financial turmoil" and "the yen remains undervalued relative to its longer-term value in real effective terms."

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2008 Article IV Consultation with Japan Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 08/92

July 29, 2008

"On monetary policy, given the low underlying inflation and the uncertain economic outlook, Directors saw little risk in delaying monetary tightening. They supported the Bank of Japan's approach of adopting a "wait and see" attitude and standing ready to respond flexibly should downside risks to economic activity materialize, or should inflation expectations worsen. Directors welcomed the Bank of Japan's enhanced communication strategy, which should strengthen public understanding of the authorities' policy intentions and help guide inflation expectations. Directors looked forward to a gradual normalization of interest rates once downside risks to growth recede."

"Directors supported the authorities' policy of a market determined exchange rate. Noting that the authorities have not intervened in the foreign exchange market since March 2004, Directors supported the authorities' policy of limiting intervention to counter excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements of the exchange rate. Directors noted the staff assessment that, although the focus of macroeconomic and structural policies is appropriate, the yen remains undervalued relative to its longer-term value in real effective terms. They also recognized that capital outflows related to Japanese investors' international diversification of assets might continue to contribute to the yen's weakness in the near future. Directors generally noted that, over the longer term, the yen could be expected to appreciate on the back of policy reforms that are expected to yield widespread productivity gains. A number of Directors underscored the importance of incorporating structural capital account factors into current account-based analyses of the equilibrium exchange rate."

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2008/pn0892.htm
hi naminori
yes i agree with this phrase "Directors looked forward to a gradual normalization of interest rates once downside risks to growth recede"
but i think that we must see this gradual normalization of interrest rates by BOJ in the past months.
  • #11,027
  • Jul 29, 2008 5:43pm Jul 29, 2008 5:43pm
naminori
what is your viewpoint about a intervention by BOJ(or other factors) in FX market in the forward months ??
best regards
hussin
  • #11,028
  • Jul 30, 2008 5:27am Jul 30, 2008 5:27am
hey guys hows it going?

got long term trade on this dollar yen, short 108.00 stop 111.00

minimum target of 99.00

300 pips risk 900 pip reward, good probability and risk reward....

lets see how it pans out over course of next few weeks...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,029
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:17am Jul 30, 2008 6:17am
Quoting fx local
hey guys hows it going?

got long term trade on this dollar yen, short 108.00 stop 111.00

minimum target of 99.00

300 pips risk 900 pip reward, good probability and risk reward....

lets see how it pans out over course of next few weeks...
Only in your dreams - you really got that backward - your profit should be the 111.00
  • #11,030
  • Jul 30, 2008 6:43am Jul 30, 2008 6:43am
Quoting P51_Group
Only in your dreams - you really got that backward - your profit should be the 111.00
ok, if its wrong my stop will get hit, no big deal, but the risk reward worthwhile anyway.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #11,031
  • Jul 30, 2008 8:10am Jul 30, 2008 8:10am
Quoting fx local
hey guys hows it going?

got long term trade on this dollar yen, short 108.00 stop 111.00

minimum target of 99.00

300 pips risk 900 pip reward, good probability and risk reward....

lets see how it pans out over course of next few weeks...

I'm with you fx local!!!
  • #11,032
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:49am Jul 30, 2008 10:49am
Hi,

forex local what are your views for the dollar weakening? Would appreciate if you could share them?

Thanks
  • #11,033
  • Jul 30, 2008 10:55am Jul 30, 2008 10:55am
I think level about 102.60/80 and then up out 111
about 2000 pips and more
  • #11,034
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:02am Jul 30, 2008 11:02am
Wow... that's just as good a pip run. Will watch the dollar in the coming week closely to see what happens.
  • #11,035
  • Jul 30, 2008 11:22am Jul 30, 2008 11:22am
Quoting fx local
hey guys hows it going?

got long term trade on this dollar yen, short 108.00 stop 111.00

minimum target of 99.00

300 pips risk 900 pip reward, good probability and risk reward... lets see how it pans out over course of next few weeks...
Ok, but the immediate things that come to mind are that saying "good probability" doesn't make it probable, and I'm clueless as to what might make it more probable now than it's been over the last many weeks, and you didn't say...

As far as a long term trade, and this could be quite a long term before you hit either TP or SL, paying swap and long term are a curious mix of concepts... Don't forget to add the swap you pay onto your 300 pip SL, which is more probable with current market direction, especially if it takes a while. That will change your R/R... Hope this is a demo trade or "nano" lot.
FUBAR...
  • #11,036
  • Jul 30, 2008 12:51pm Jul 30, 2008 12:51pm
this is nice for now
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  • #11,037
  • Jul 30, 2008 1:05pm Jul 30, 2008 1:05pm
can we think that this is wedge for down trend
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  • #11,038
  • Jul 30, 2008 1:28pm Jul 30, 2008 1:28pm
hi ,

look at this duvergence on uj , actually it appears also on u\chf , u\nzd
does it mean that we are heading to new down wave ?

I'll be happy to know what you think about that ...
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  • #11,039
  • Jul 30, 2008 1:44pm Jul 30, 2008 1:44pm
i am for new down wave
  • #11,040
  • Jul 30, 2008 2:35pm Jul 30, 2008 2:35pm
I vote for down.
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