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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #4,121
  • Jul 27, 2008 8:02pm Jul 27, 2008 8:02pm
Quote
I would suggest that you stop posting on this thread so we don't have to deal with this day in and day out - thank you!

here! here! I second that.
  • #4,122
  • Jul 27, 2008 8:42pm Jul 27, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting leo_follower
Highneb,

Thanks for reporting your backtest results. PC was very specific about the entry rules but not so much about exits. May I ask what exit rules have you backtested?

Leonardo Follower
Highneb, I guess this trader deserves an answer....


And more..... backtesting a discretionary method....

oh, please.... tell us how to do it in a reliable way....

Remember what PC said.... (this thread is not fading....) just a few have the stomach to trade this way...
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #4,123
  • Jul 27, 2008 8:48pm Jul 27, 2008 8:48pm
My fellow traders,


Our thread has certainly taken on many twists...... perhaps that is the nature or should I say the inevitable destiny of just about most threads. This is especially true when its main contributor/mentor moves on for whatever reason he/she has. So as traders we are left with the only person we can depend on to bring success to our forex experience.... ourselves. This reminds me of a quote by Sir Winston Churchill....

"The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative".

Perhaps we also need to exhaust all of our alternatives to whatever method we choose to use before we do the right thing.....hopefully we would still have $$$$ in our accounts

Happy Dibbing!
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #4,124
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:13pm Jul 27, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting moneda
My fellow traders,


Our thread has certainly taken on many twists...... perhaps that is the nature or should I say the inevitable destiny of just about most threads. This is especially true when its main contributor/mentor moves on for whatever reason he/she has. So as traders we are left with the only person we can depend on to bring success to our forex experience.... ourselves. This reminds me of a quote by Sir Winston Churchill....

"The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative".

Perhaps we also need to exhaust all of our alternatives to whatever method we choose to use before we do the right thing.....hopefully we would still have $$$$ in our accounts

Happy Dibbing!
Hey, my friend.... how are you doing?

I think we have narrowed the discussion on the "is this DIBS stuff profitable or not" thing. So wrong! We should focus mainly on mastering (at least try hard to...) our discretion to jump into the big potential trades, everybody is going to benefit on it. There will always be lots of losing/BE trades, but we must know how to recognize those potential long tail trades that could make my wife start looking for a new house.... (right, leo_follower? )

Cheers!

PS: I'm sure Jim is still around... he would never leave this thread. I'm sure he got some good reason to take a deserved rest... soon we'll be glad to see him back...
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #4,125
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:03pm Jul 27, 2008 10:03pm
Fading? maybe so but I know One thing for sure...

A lot more FF Members {including myself} arre better off for the thread.

Mission accomplished.

One other thing...

Watch Its popularity resurge on the next market swing.
  • #4,126
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:50pm Jul 27, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting HouseTrader
Hey, my friend.... how are you doing?

I think we have narrowed the discussion on the "is this DIBS stuff profitable or not" thing. So wrong! We should focus mainly on mastering (at least try hard to...) our discretion to jump into the big potential trades, everybody is going to benefit on it. There will always be lots of losing/BE trades, but we must know how to recognize those potential long tail trades that could make my wife start looking for a new house.... (right, leo_follower? )

Cheers!

PS: I'm sure Jim is still around... he would never leave this thread. I'm sure he got some good reason to take a deserved rest... soon we'll be glad to see him back...
I hoping to be back tonight and the rest of the week.

family reunion . . . friends from out of town (my head is still hurting) . . .crazy work schedules . . . life. Its been a crazy month but a fun one. I been looking in now and then and I just can't wait to get back in the swing (pun intended) of things.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,127
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:35pm Jul 27, 2008 11:35pm
Hi folks, seems I missed te bunfight over the past few seesions.

I agree with HouseTrader - how the heck do you backtest a discretionary system?

Trading is more an art than a science. Some people can do it, others can't.

I work with an incredibly intelligent young fellow who spends half his life backtesting systems to destruction. The result is that he rarely trades. When he does he often loses, causing him to retreat into "backtest-mode" to see where he went wrong. He is stuck in the backtest cycle, doomed to spend his days trying to figure everything out instead of just doing it and applying good risk management. Now there is a big secret revealed!

Personally I have found the DIBS method profitable over a month of LIVE action. I paper traded on Friday and it bored me to death even though the results were very positive. Yawn..... You can't backtest emotions evoked while live trading. Paper trading is emotionless. Trading runs purely on emotion and psychology. Yes, you guessed it, I don't believe in backtesting. I think it is a complete waste of valuable time and in the end doesn't work out in live trading anyway. That's because you can't mix all the ingredients into your backtest formula.

You have to adapt your style to the market (try backtest that one!) and when the market is trendless, I aim for a smaller target. When the direction resumes one can leave a remaining position to run with a sensible trailing stop. That won't work right now until the market wakes up and choses a direction.

That is why the large institutions are probably not using the DIBS method, it is too discretionary. They like large complex computer driven models, which by the way sometimes fail spectacularly. Check out the book "Traders Guns & Money" by Satyajit Das if you don't believe me.

Gotta go, some DIBS trades in the making..........
Never argue with a fool....
  • #4,128
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm Jul 27, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting Bemac
Fading? maybe so but I know One thing for sure...

A lot more FF Members {including myself} arre better off for the thread.

Mission accomplished.

One other thing...

Watch Its popularity resurge on the next market swing.

Most of us are still here, maintaining a low profile and keeping our powder dry.
  • #4,129
  • Jul 27, 2008 11:56pm Jul 27, 2008 11:56pm
Looks like we may have a BEarish Outside Bar on the hourly on the Gbp/Usd. A DIBS trade on the short side may show the way.

I have been looking at Price Action and its confluences on higher time frames (and current time frame) to show me the direction or "hint" of where Price may be going.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,130
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:07am Jul 28, 2008 12:07am
This Pin Bar (in blue) on the Daily Euro is still very much in play. A DIBS trade on the long side looks very promising.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,131
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:28am Jul 28, 2008 12:28am
Usd/Jpy
Looks like Price is caged in between some strong S/R levels and could go either way. A solid DIBS trade (long or short) could show us where the breakout will ocurr.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,132
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:43am Jul 28, 2008 12:43am
Quoting jarroo
Looks like we may have a BEarish Outside Bar on the hourly on the Gbp/Usd. A DIBS trade on the short side may show the way.

I have been looking at Price Action and its confluences on higher time frames (and current time frame) to show me the direction or "hint" of where Price may be going.
This DIBS trade on the 30 min, off the hourly BEOB is tempting. Risking only about 15 pips.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,133
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:46am Jul 28, 2008 12:46am
Quoting jarroo
This DIBS trade on the 30 min, off the hourly BEOB is tempting. Risking only about 15 pips.
I took it. Short at 1.9881
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,134
  • Jul 28, 2008 12:57am Jul 28, 2008 12:57am
Oops sorry. I like to use 1:00 AM EST as my Open of the Day.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,135
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:08am Jul 28, 2008 1:08am
Quoting jarroo
I took it. Short at 1.9881
Price is moving pretty strong . I let it run a little more before I take the free trade.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,136
  • Edited 2:16am Jul 28, 2008 1:13am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting jarroo
Price is moving pretty strong . I let it run a little more before I take the free trade.

Trendline is a bit concerning. What if it breaks it? Should be interesting.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,137
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:30am Jul 28, 2008 1:30am
Quoting jarroo
Trendline is a bit concerning. What if it break it? Should be interesting.
There's also a bit of resistance being hit up against on USD/JPY on the daily charts as well. Could stand to be quite a vigorous week for USD. As long as we're there to collect our piece of the pie, right?
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #4,138
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:34am Jul 28, 2008 1:34am
Quoting The Jedi
There's also a bit of resistance being hit up against on USD/JPY on the daily charts as well. Could stand to be quite a vigorous week for USD. As long as we're there to collect our piece of the pie, right?
Looks like its breaking out of its cage. Any one catch that breakout. I missed it.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,139
  • Edited 1:53am Jul 28, 2008 1:36am | Edited 1:53am
Just missed a puuuuuuurfect DIBS entry on the EURJPY - see chart below. I use MB Trading and they just randomly decided to reset the passwords of their international clients. They just did not bother to inform them. I like their platform although it does have some issues but their commission is a killer. I had a look at Oanda since many of you seem to favour it, but their platform is diabolical. It crashed frequently and the interface and charts are a mess. I might switch to InterActiveBrokers. Any comments from you guys (and gals!)?

Just entered a "quickie" on the USDCAD and exited half for 10 pips (at the Central pivot) and the rest is running free. Won't get rich like that I know but it is real good fun!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY.GIF Size: 13 KB
Never argue with a fool....
  • #4,140
  • Jul 28, 2008 1:37am Jul 28, 2008 1:37am
Twenty Seven viewing the thread.

On behalf of those me worthy, Welcome all
3 traders viewing now