EURUSD

Should 5800 break you will be buying. Why? you will miss 150 pips of the move. You also could be buying a top no shock there though. the buy is now or at 1.5650 or so. Not when it breaks 5800 that is not a buy setup. You buy as the market is going down not as it is going up. typical mistake made by traders.

It all depends on the irrationality of the bulls. Techs aren't paying any attention to the numbers that determine the exchange rates. Irrational exuberence and interest rate differential has been the moving force for this one short term. Classic last bull run could happen or already has happened. By fundementals this thing shouldn't be at these levels. I've got a buy at 1.5926 and a sell in at 1.5670. Most likely will range in between, hopefully I can close both with minimal loss. I'll be entering new positions next time a move starts. I see 1.49 by this years end if bulls come to their senses. Guess its harder to trade down then up.

My wife breakout trades. When trending, works great, when ranging stop loss city.

trading breakouts not healthy. You will be shark bait. If you are going to buy why not do it now when it is a buy setup. Again 5800 is not a buy setup

my two cents for monday:

buying dips @ 1.5665

profiting @ 1.5765

sl @ 1.5625

Dude.....all I said was "Good Post"

It didn't mean I was a buyer.......right now I'm neutral. I want to feel the pulse of the market before I make a decision.

So chill out homey.....

HOLLA

i think it's the best time to place buy now...i think it's not the best time to take buy on 1.58...is it you still goin up after 15800?

Hello
This week I am expecting something like this.
Beautifull ABC pattern with xyz legs
but daily study seems more interesting.
Time will tell.
Anyway goodluck all and happy trading

from yet another perspective... the daily ichimoku. as we can see, the kumo is expanding the next couple of days, so more support. if it breaks, then it might get a nice bear run ;] but i wouldn't bet on this happening. it looks like a classic trap. the flat top kumo likes to work as a "gravity pull", and the index likes to bounce on it. take care. also the kijun and tenkan lines have not crossed yet.

though i work mosty intra and swing, also I use ichimoku on the 5minute interval, and it works like a charm there. but that does not mean, that the e/u wont break thru the kumo. the kumo is going upward in the future, and this means one thing for sure... either the e/u skyrockets upward with it, or breaks and starts going down bigtime. this is just ichimoku analysis

now some ranting...

from the fundamental point of view - the congress had passed the bill. somebody posted this as a fundamentally bullish info. isn't it bearish?? bailouts will weaken the dollar, since more and more public money will be needed. I do not see in the nearest future any increase in taxing the americans (btw low taxed compared to the eu) - but the money will be needed. so there will be more new money.

another fundamental - check the ctfc reports regarding crude. commercial entities last week had been really, and I mean really, closing short positions on the crude. last time when they closed half the number of longs we had this drop. now they have closed twice that number of shorts, leaving the market. i believe this might be a volatile news next week, since the report came up almost after working hours. this could lead to a new surge in oil, and this would weaken the dollar. for me this gives the reason to think that we will have a nice bumpy ride. buckle your seat belts...

next fundamental from my perspective - fomc will not hike the rates . they just have cutten them, now if they would like to hike them then there clearly will be sacrificing the economy. remember that it is shaky. yes, the number will come better than anticipated, just as reports for companies this week had been going. but remember, that considering the inflation that is real for people (the cpi for me is a flawed model, since it does not include food and energy - something that has had increased numerous times) is decreasing the gdp more than we think. also the fomc knows this.

from my point of view then - a stronger dollar is not in the best US interest. the talking heads will tell You that it is, but it is NOT! look at the amazon and e-bay earnings. people on ebay noticed more foreigners buing things from the US because the dollar is cheap. I'm thinking about VACATION IN THE US, since the dollar fell so much to the polish zloty (believe me, 2001 dollar at almost 5,00PLN, now it is breaking 2,00PLN) that vacation for example on florida might be cheaper than in spain. not to mention that I will DEFINETELY look for buying a car in the US, and importing into the EU, since they are way cheaper (hence toyota celica last time I checked - going in the US for 20k$, in Poland You need to pay for the same model around 200kPLN (100k$ !!!!) - so the one from the US after duties, vat tax, excise, enviromental, registration, conversions will be around 35k$, transportation about 5k$, this gives a hefty 60% discount) - and this is something I see from some time, more american-made cars on Polish roads. many companies buy hummers, since they can register them as a "truck", and have a tax-discount for fuel for them. silly? no. If I get some more money I'd buy a... SUV. really. some toyota would be best. there is a strong "surge" for such vehicles in Poland, and I could sell it with quite a bonus for me actually. believe it or not. the SUV prices in Poland are really high, why - catch-22 perhaps.

this is just a situation made by the weak dollar. and bernanke knows this. the export from the US is skyrocketing. this is a BIG, and I mean BIG boost for the US economy. yes, the holidays for americans are way expensive in europe. but this is not the reason to consider strenthening the dollar. the only reason the dollar could strengthen to the EURO it is the vanilla-like technical situation, where it had skyrocketed out of the channel and gone upward from like 1.3... and now it should make a hefty correction dow to 1.4-1.5. but will it? is it in the US best interest to have a strong dollar? a weak dollar "exports" the problems to other countries. my father spent many years in the US, and he says that he cant believe how the dollar fell, but knowing the US from the inside - the average joe might be cussing on recession, whereas we in Poland in their terms of the US recession - are always in one and that even if the $ is weak, there is a reason for the US to have it so. because if the US would want a strong dollar, then it would be strong. bt that is just my father, he's quite old

please do remember - i'm trying NOT TO GET A BIAS here. I might be biased with the EURPLN and USDPLN (check the charts if You have access to these exotics - last year was "easy money" ) ). but I clearly do not see a real LEGITIMATE reason for a stronger dollar, except curbing the oil prices. but that theoretically had been made, the speculative capital moved now to the stock market. now get a load of this - increasing the rates would be a hit for the stock market, and the capital would again search for opportunities like... oil...

wow, I really posted a hefty article, I hope You weren't bored while reading?

Well since everyone is posting their own guesses..
I'm guessing a fall at the start of the week to reverse the Friday trend, I'm also guessing it won't reach 1.55 but will be lower than the previous 562 area low, a touch of the Daily 100 EMA looks likely, then a rise for the bigger part of the week with the unemployment data coming in. I doubt it'll reach as high as mid 58 to 59. Maybe the week after. Either way, I hope no one's trading these guesses but rather uses their proven systems. Good luck.

I agree UP trend over next week in EU as shown in my charts.

It is due to retracement, overall is bear for me.

Juz my opinion...

What you see is what you get. Juz trade wif your charts.

i think the best to trade these days is the usd,
it can fellow the trend very good ,

i do scalping for 20 pips but possible to leave it up to 40 pips if i see the trend is strong ( spread is including), any how i can post some of my live trades from tonight ,so if that acceptable to you in this thread i will do,....

should buying the eu at 1.5650 setting stop loss at 1.5625 be a good trade for this week?

now some ranting...

from the fundamental point of view - the congress had passed the bill. somebody posted this as a fundamentally bullish info. isn't it bearish?? bailouts will weaken the dollar, since more and more public money will be needed. I do not see in the nearest future any increase in taxing the americans (btw low taxed compared to the eu) - but the money will be needed. so there will be more new money.

But remember, European banks are in the same boat as U.S. in the default loans. They purchased even more then we have. Euro and U.K. banks will benefit from U.S. stopping the bad loans. Matter of fact I'm sure their Central Banks were praying this would pass.

i am going to go short at 1,5659 tp 18 pips sl 32 pips

Both of the above highlighted comments are saying the same thing.
Bullish for E$ pair, bearish for US economy, and should be priced in at the moment (was a given it would pass) but will start down (1.5685-1.5693) then head up over the week (1.5850-1.5950), if weekend opening history has anything to say about it. But I could be wrong....

Well, no gaps this week That's good

Thanks Turtle.