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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #4,081
  • Jul 24, 2008 6:27pm Jul 24, 2008 6:27pm
Sorry for the rant but it needs to be drilled home that there is no silver bullet for Forex or Stocks or Commodities or even Options.

There is, however, a best case scenario given current conditions.
Therein lies the rub.
  • #4,082
  • Jul 24, 2008 7:00pm Jul 24, 2008 7:00pm
Lovely.
Quoting Bemac
Sorry for the rant but it needs to be drilled home that there is no silver bullet for Forex or Stocks or Commodities or even Options.

There is, however, a best case scenario given current conditions.
Therein lies the rub.
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #4,083
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:14pm Jul 24, 2008 9:14pm
Quoting Bemac
Sorry for the rant but it needs to be drilled home that there is no silver bullet for Forex or Stocks or Commodities or even Options.

There is, however, a best case scenario given current conditions.
Therein lies the rub.
Great, Bemac...

Never too late to remember.... No Free Lunch.... the meal is not so expensive, but it must be paid.....

Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #4,084
  • Jul 25, 2008 2:37am Jul 25, 2008 2:37am
With all due respect, will the newbies PLEASE read ALL of the posts in this thread AND the original PC thread before asking questions that have been asked and answered a million times before. Like "what is an inside bar". Come on chaps that is almost self explanatory! Bemac has a far more diplomatic approach but is basically saying the same thing. The are always people unwilling/unable to think for themselves while trying to hang on for a free lunch. I quit using the Skype forum after just one afternoon for that very reason. Folks, do what the rest of us have done, do the work, do your own research and then join in the discussion with a knowledgeable contribution instead of trying to be a sponge. Sorry but if you are not willing and able to do the work yourself you will NEVER make it as a trader. You have to stand on your own two feet or the market will wipe you out very quickly! None of us know it all and if you ask reasonable intelligent questions that are not covered ad-nausium previously you will find tons of help here from some very dedicated and highly intelligent traders. Just as in life, you will get out of it what you put into it so go out and DO IT!
Never argue with a fool....
  • #4,085
  • Jul 25, 2008 3:24am Jul 25, 2008 3:24am
Quoting tigertrader
With all due respect, will the newbies PLEASE read ALL of the posts in this thread AND the original PC thread before asking questions that have been asked and answered a million times before. Like "what is an inside bar". Come on chaps that is almost self explanatory! Bemac has a far more diplomatic approach but is basically saying the same thing. The are always people unwilling/unable to think for themselves while trying to hang on for a free lunch. I quit using the Skype forum after just one afternoon for that very reason. Folks, do what the rest of us have done, do the work, do your own research and then join in the discussion with a knowledgeable contribution instead of trying to be a sponge. Sorry but if you are not willing and able to do the work yourself you will NEVER make it as a trader. You have to stand on your own two feet or the market will wipe you out very quickly! None of us know it all and if you ask reasonable intelligent questions that are not covered ad-nausium previously you will find tons of help here from some very dedicated and highly intelligent traders. Just as in life, you will get out of it what you put into it so go out and DO IT!
A while back I made a similar post and a day or so later, the same old questions were being posted. It's the nature of an online forum I feel, which makes me think more than once before ever opening up a new thread. I think it's great that FF have done something about this with the Trading Room.
But people will always be people...
  • #4,086
  • Jul 25, 2008 4:28am Jul 25, 2008 4:28am
Nice to read from

Bemac
chowclown
NAL

the thread is back and lively.
let's keep posting our intelligent thought.

there is joy and gain in sharing!
  • #4,087
  • Edited Jul 26, 2008 10:04am Jul 25, 2008 10:34am | Edited Jul 26, 2008 10:04am
I have attached a spreadsheet to show what is possible from doing your own research, I only show a few months but I have years worth of spreadsheets like this all of them testing different ideas I have read or come up with on my own.

I have deleted my trading rules; some rules are dibs oriented concepts incorparated with my own concepts, I am not attempting to sell anything or give away my research. Peter has given away what he knows. How could I untill I make my own millions from my over 7 years of research to come up with a few simple rules that are easily executed in real time.

The purpose of the post is to give an idea what is possible and show newcomers what I consider to be the first steps towards being profitable; doing you own research & keeping trade records.

Free thought ...... If you really want to understand the power of trading, compound the results on the spreadsheet.



The hand of the diligent makes rich. proverbs


Dale
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Post.xls   109 KB | 701 downloads
  • #4,088
  • Jul 25, 2008 3:19pm Jul 25, 2008 3:19pm
Quote
have attached a spreadsheet to show what is possible from doing your own research

what was your starting balance?
  • #4,089
  • Edited 11:33pm Jul 25, 2008 6:38pm | Edited 11:33pm
Good Question, All the numbers are in pips so you can start with any balance you like.



Dale
  • #4,090
  • Jul 26, 2008 12:17pm Jul 26, 2008 12:17pm
Inside bars are more likely to form in a ranging (horizontal) market and less likely to form in a steeply trending market.
  • #4,091
  • Jul 26, 2008 3:31pm Jul 26, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Well, again, I think this is just one of those details that each person works out for his/herself. Ultimately, the weekly and monthly opens aren't of tremendous importance anyway. The only mention Peter every really made of them was that when the daily IB triggered in the direction of the weekly or monthly open, then the profits could be substantial. But all trading decisions were made off the daily.

I wonder if maybe the 5:00 GMT time as the open is of more importance then PC alluded to. I get the feeling that some things were left unexplained for a reason, maybe the big players take the 5:00GMT very seriously...
The way is narrow
  • #4,092
  • Edited 3:12am Jul 27, 2008 2:59am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting Sainz4Pips
I wonder if maybe the 5:00 GMT time as the open is of more importance then PC alluded to. I get the feeling that some things were left unexplained for a reason, maybe the big players take the 5:00GMT very seriously...

LOL

Guys, I know I'm asking to be shot down here. But Looking back over several years of data on £:$ and E:$ DIBS is only marginally profitable. Sometimes the 5am works better, sometimes the 6am. Sometimes the 7am... etc.

A DIBS strategy will only work if there is a usable positive expectation, and i have yet to find one in my data research. In other words, gains are virtually cancelled out by losses.

I would love DIBS to work, because it is theoretically a very simple way to make money, however unfortunately I don't think it's that easy..
  • #4,093
  • Jul 27, 2008 3:30am Jul 27, 2008 3:30am
Quoting highneb
LOL

Guys, I know I'm asking to be shot down here. But Looking back over several years of data on £:$ and E:$ DIBS is only marginally profitable. Sometimes the 5am works better, sometimes the 6am. Sometimes the 7am... etc.

A DIBS strategy will only work if there is a usable positive expectation, and i have yet to find one in my data research. In other words, gains are virtually cancelled out by losses.

I would love DIBS to work, because it is theoretically a very simple way to make money, however unfortunately I don't think it's that easy..

Ok, let's just say for a second that this method is only marginally profitable, which I tend to doubt based on the RESULTS acheived by those here on FF trading in the wee hours of the morning (itleast it is wee hours of the morning if you are fom Dallas) but the results are what they are minus any trades that are held for weeks or even months, and I would conclude that they are pretty decent anyway. PC taught that there are times where a trader can gather half his profits for the year from one or two trades that are part of a larger trend, so in analyzing this method that aspect I think MUST be taken into consideration as PC has described it as the reality of the DIBS method as he understands it.
The way is narrow
  • #4,094
  • Jul 27, 2008 3:44am Jul 27, 2008 3:44am
Quoting Sainz4Pips
I am a humble noob who is trying to get my head around this nice DIBS system. I am 3 weeks into Forex entirely....looking at my charts on FXCM and I cannot see even one inside bar...the bars cannot be even right? It must have a lower high and a higher low...I am looking at 1hr charts and even going back some. Can anyone estimate roughly how many inside bar setups would occur during the first 6-9 hours of the session, I just want to find one!


Thanks.
I realized that I was the one that posted this ? when traders were commenting on doing one's own work, and yes you are right, my mistake.

BTW many thanks to Jaroo and others who have let this thread be what it is, I feel fortunate that being in FX for about a month now, and not live yet at all I have come across a method that is low risk/high profit potential and simple...I could have just as easily got lost in a maze of indicators or worse robots and such.
The way is narrow
  • #4,095
  • Edited 5:04am Jul 27, 2008 4:54am | Edited 5:04am
If it was possible to make money from DIBS. The hedge funds would be pumping money into it in the billions. This technique is as old as the hills, and very easy to program into a computer. My opinion is this way of making money is too easy and my back testing 'backs' this up. An inside bar is simply a pause in the market, a concept as old as stocks and currencies themselves.

I know there are some great DIBS trades out there, but if the gains are cancelled out by lots of small losses, we may as well toss a coin.

What nobody has addressed on this long thread is: IS THERE A POSSITIVE EXPECTATION when trades are agrigated? If there is (like a loaded dice) then what is it? Also if there is a positive expectation, why havn't the 'big boys' traded out the advantage long ago?

What we need on this thread is proper evidence of a positive expectation of the DIBS strategy over a decent length of time. Cherry picking winning trades from the past is meaningless.

I'm not an enemy of DIBS. I would like to make money using this simple methos as much as the next man. I just havn't found the results worthwhile enough to deploy my hard earned capital.
  • #4,096
  • Jul 27, 2008 6:15am Jul 27, 2008 6:15am
dibs = car
traders = women

women cant drive. is not the cars fault
traders cant manage to profit from dibs. its not dibs fault.

anyway a single trade has like 4 element, entry, exit, risk exposure, and rrr with proper s/r identification. dibs is entry element.

imagine you driving a car only know how to push gas pedal, without knowing when to turn or when to brake. *splat*
  • #4,097
  • Jul 27, 2008 6:32am Jul 27, 2008 6:32am
Quoting highneb
If it was possible to make money from DIBS. The hedge funds would be pumping money into it in the billions. This technique is as old as the hills, and very easy to program into a computer. My opinion is this way of making money is too easy and my back testing 'backs' this up. An inside bar is simply a pause in the market, a concept as old as stocks and currencies themselves.

I know there are some great DIBS trades out there, but if the gains are cancelled out by lots of small losses, we may as well toss a coin.

What nobody has addressed on this long thread is: IS THERE A POSSITIVE EXPECTATION when trades are agrigated? If there is (like a loaded dice) then what is it? Also if there is a positive expectation, why havn't the 'big boys' traded out the advantage long ago?

What we need on this thread is proper evidence of a positive expectation of the DIBS strategy over a decent length of time. Cherry picking winning trades from the past is meaningless.

I'm not an enemy of DIBS. I would like to make money using this simple methos as much as the next man. I just havn't found the results worthwhile enough to deploy my hard earned capital.
Your answer is found in the last post by dito. And if longtime traders as PC and TRT are still using it then it's hardly not giving an edge. Do read PC's and TRT's posts. Then you might understand how they are finding it a winning strategy and why...
  • #4,098
  • Jul 27, 2008 6:42am Jul 27, 2008 6:42am
I have read Peters posts several times and backtested the strategy to the letter. As earlier posted, the result was positive, but only just.

I am happy to post the results.
  • #4,099
  • Jul 27, 2008 9:04am Jul 27, 2008 9:04am
Quote
My opinion is this way of making money is too easy and my back testing 'backs' this up

I have to stop myself here from going off.

Why are you even reading this thread? Go fill your charts up with complicated nonsence then and make your millions. Please backtesting? Do you really consider that as relaible compared to foward testing?

and ib is not the market resting it is a BREAKOUT pattern duh!!!

Ive been using ibs and obs in my trading for years with great success.

If this system is a failure then why don't you just find another thread to litter
  • #4,100
  • Jul 27, 2008 10:34am Jul 27, 2008 10:34am
Good day fellow traders,

I'd like to share my sincere experience with using DIBS as laid down by PC. i'd like to say something here, DIBS works perfectly, if we read and understand the philosophy of DIBS, we will sure know that it works very well but as usual with many system, traders are the problem and not DIBS.



personally, i don't trade IB/OB the PC's way but will give him the accolade for making me to come across DIBS. DIBS in its simply form works but how many traders can stomach the losses when they come, this is the reason why traders have been running away.


i for one, knows this well but sincerely, can't see the losses and still have confidence in the system, and that's y, i use a method am confident with, which trading IB/OB spotting divergence.


If we can take every dibs trade as they come, no matter, wot the situation of fx market maybe, we will still be at least 1% up at the end of the month, but, i for one, i can withstand the drawdown period but i must say it works.



at least, i have read traders declaring 10% profit on acct in a single day trading. if only, we can have the confidence, we would see that it works.


lastly, i have a friend that i taught this method, and brilliantly, work it out as an entry signal to combine with his fib tools, ever since then, his acct size has been growing steadily.

DIBS rocks well!!
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