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  • #1,521
  • Edited 1:19pm Jul 24, 2008 1:05pm | Edited 1:19pm
What does everyone think about a possible USD/JPY long @ 107.44 or thereabouts right now ?

107.44 is Resistance from the preceding runup, and is at the 76.4% Fibo retracement level from the run down.

It was worth a few PIPs bounce earlier today, so not sure if it will hold this time around.

PS: The market answered my question ... it continued lower and bust my tight 20-PIP stop.

I guess I shouldn't trust levels 2nd time around when they have already bounced once.

Next stopping zone on the way down is now probably 107.08 (spike Resistance on the way up) to 107 double 0 level, I would think.

USD/JPY drop seems to be a Yen thing, as the USD/CHF isn't dropping in the same way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY long example 2.jpg Size: 138 KB
  • #1,522
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:09pm Jul 24, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting loudoniii
What does everyone think about a possible USD/JPY long @ 107.44 or thereabouts right now ?

107.44 is Resistance from the preceding runup, and is at the 76.4% Fibo retracement level from the run down.

It was worth a few PIPs bounce earlier today, so not sure if it will hold this time around.

I don't think that would work out so well. It was just tested so I don't see the number as having very much relevance.
  • #1,523
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:20pm Jul 24, 2008 1:20pm
Quoting Verto
I don't think that would work out so well. It was just tested so I don't see the number as having very much relevance.
Thanks, Verto - you were absolutely right of course.

I've updated the post above with the results.
  • #1,524
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:35pm Jul 24, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting loudoniii
Thanks, Verto - you were absolutely right of course.

I've updated the post above with the results.
usd/chf and usd/jpy are both due for some drops so I wouldn't could out usd/chf just yet on the dropping.
  • #1,525
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:59pm Jul 24, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting leis
BillyRay thanks for yr obs. Unable to post a new chart at moment sorry for the delay in responding - got to sleep sometime!! It's around 9.40 BST and price has dropped past yesterdays low currently now just holding on support around 1.5643/6. Thinking it's going lower.......
So now looking (as per yr post 1484) at the 61.8 fib 1.5582?
Or it is some ways away but support at 15480/500?
Hi leis, this trend is showing signs of fatigue, so any more spikes into these areas would be worth a crack at it for me. The retracement area is the next zone Im targeting for longs, but I think we could get a recovery here. Have to wait and see. But I would take the higher level.
  • #1,526
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:00pm Jul 24, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting finswin56
Long 1.9800-1.9790 Lots of S/R in this tight range plus good fib confluence. Not sure about how my fib is drawn, but I like this range even without it. Only problem is that would be after breaking through a trend line, which it is currently testing. Next area comes in at 1.9750's
thanks I'll throw it on the list
  • #1,527
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:02pm Jul 24, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting loudoniii
Nice USD/JPY long setup @ 107.44, a level that was Resistance on the way up, and is just above the 76.4% retracement level of the run up.

Entry on Buy Entry Limit @ 107.44 had max -3 PIPs drawdown, up +19 so far.

Price dipped down after Existing Home Sales announcement, then recovered quickly.

So, on a slow day, a worthwhile scalp at least.
Hi loudonni - areas like these are only best served when you get in on the initial bounce. Both of these zones on eur and yen are good for intraday plays or trend continuation, but trying to take them again shortly after they have been hit already poses a much higher level of risk versus taking them on the initial bounce.
  • #1,528
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:06pm Jul 24, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting Iron-man
You are on the right track for sure (though I never bet the farm on diagonal trendlines by themselves) Price Action is the key and what I am looking at on the chart are the wicks. (I will try to post larger charts in the future)On a 1hr, wicks very often give us turn signals on price. Usually the 3rd candle is a descent entry. If it takes more candles than that often times the move isn't as big.

Overall, a very good analysis of the chart. Keep it up!
Thank you. Please explain what you mean when you say " the 3rd candle", third from where?

Thanks.
  • #1,529
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:07pm Jul 24, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting djambazov84
Hey BRV,

Do you think that we are actually finding resistance off of the top TL and could well reverse all the way down to 1.0139-45 for example. I am asking this since this tight range we are at currently, full of false break-outs could lead to a potential leg down...which could be very well reinforced by bearish US news. Correct me if I`m wrong but is this Friday an OE day ?
Hi, option ex was last friday actually, and we could very well see a reversal from here.....I've been holding onto my short but looking to protect it as I'm not getting the push I wanted to begin with. Consolidation like this will usually cause me to rethink what I'm doing here, but for now I'm sticking with it. EUR continues to get hammered despite the US economy in such bad shape (theyre not doing too well over there either of course), so its a sign perhaps to take a seat back and wait for some fresh areas to get hit.
  • #1,530
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:07pm Jul 24, 2008 2:07pm
Friday question.
What are your expectations for tomorrow? Do you think it will be a profit taking day that ignites the pull back?
  • #1,531
  • Edited Jul 25, 2008 12:42am Jul 24, 2008 2:14pm | Edited Jul 25, 2008 12:42am
Quoting loudoniii
Thanks, Verto - you were absolutely right of course.

I've updated the post above with the results.
no sweat I wont track or anything because the level was hit prior to the trade...thanks loudonii!!
  • #1,532
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:21pm Jul 24, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting finswin56
Friday question.
What are your expectations for tomorrow? Do you think it will be a profit taking day that ignites the pull back?
Hi finswin, Could be yes....we're seeing an overextension across all the majors and UJ is starting to pull back already, mainly due to spx correlation. EUR is doing its thing for obvious reasons. I was on oanda today and I saw something frightening.....cant help but say I feel bad for everyone in the upper right quadrant. I'm sure retail traders arent the only ones positioned like this, so it could happen.

Every day is unique, so its hard to say sometiimes what will or will not happen, so I like to just keep my mind open to any possibilities that shoot down the path. Wish I had a more concrete answer for you but Im sorry I really dont unfortunately....just have to wait it out and see what come.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/stati...ve_EUR_USD.png
  • #1,533
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:24pm Jul 24, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi finswin, Could be yes....we're seeing an overextension across all the majors and UJ is starting to pull back already, mainly due to spx correlation. EUR is doing its thing for obvious reasons. I was on oanda today and I saw something frightening.....cant help but say I feel bad for everyone in the upper right quadrant. I'm sure retail traders arent the only ones positioned like this, so it could happen.

Every day is unique, so its hard to say sometiimes what will or will not happen, so I like to just keep my mind open to any possibilities that shoot down the path. Wish I had a more concrete answer for you but Im sorry I really dont unfortunately....just have to wait it out and see what come.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/stati...ve_EUR_USD.png
Thanks, and no I don't expect you to know what's going to happen. Just wanted your much more educated guess than mine

If those are pending orders, why do you feel sorry for them?
  • #1,534
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:26pm Jul 24, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting finswin56
Thanks, and no I don't expect you to know what's going to happen. Just wanted your much more educated guess than mine

If those are pending orders, why do you feel sorry for them?
haha yeah right I challenge you on the educated part ...those are open positions actually - thats a lot of red ink on that graph - eeeeesh!
  • #1,535
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:27pm Jul 24, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
haha yeah right I challenge you on the educated part ...those are open positions actually - thats a lot of red ink on that graph - eeeeesh!
OH! OUCH! That's a tough road to climb back up. I bet there are a lot of folks waiting to sell at BE at this point. I'm liking that 1.5800 area even more now.
  • #1,536
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:29pm Jul 24, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting finswin56
OH! OUCH! That's a tough road to climb back up. I bet there are a lot of folks waiting to sell at BE at this point. I'm liking that 1.5800 area even more now.
Im still holding onto this CHF short so we'llllll seeeee. Goes to show you though the relevance of this data.....when you have this percentage of traders on oanda's books getting smashed its not exactly screaming reliability . I think I'll have to reevalute me looking at it for any type of reference.
  • #1,537
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:30pm Jul 24, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting Grath
Hi. Total newbie here, trying to learn my way around the thread and its protocols. Are not trades supposed to be suggested before the event?

Also, is it OK to ask for explanations? (I have looked and looked at the charts for the "7/22/2008 USD/CHF 1.0036 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +228 - in progress" that's on page 1. I just don't see where/when the trade triggered.)
I fixed the typo on the first page. "Good", thank you for pointing out the mistake.
  • #1,538
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:31pm Jul 24, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Im still holding onto this CHF short so we'llllll seeeee. Goes to show you though the relevance of this data.....when you have this percentage of traders on onada's books getting smashed its not exactly screaming reliability . I think I'll have to reevalute me looking at it for any type of reference.
FWIW every expert and blogger out there had been long on this pair expecting it to blow away the highs. If we get below 1.5600, I think it will fall like a brick.
  • #1,539
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:35pm Jul 24, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting finswin56
FWIW every expert and blogger out there had been long on this pair expecting it to blow away the highs. If we get below 1.5600, I think it will fall like a brick.
Yeah I know and this is why I dont like reading daily commentary from a lot of these folks, and prefer to hone in on the day-to-day movements in general. Last week everybody's long, and then we had the interest rate comment, so now all I hear is "oh! I told you so looks like the EUR$ run is over!"

when price is moving up they're looking for new highs, when price is looking down theyre looking for new lows. they can never be wrong . its shameful. its our job to prove everybody wrong by making the money on these day to day movements.

I built this thread on the premise of "put your money where your mouth is", because the side commentary and all of the after-the-fact teaching doesnt help and gets pretty tiring....forecasting is our job, so lets forecast.
  • #1,540
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:35pm Jul 24, 2008 2:35pm
I would like to hear what those with a lot of trading experience have to say about price hitting and rejecting an area vs price hitting and sticking with an area.

Recent examples would be. July 15 and 20 where price hit and rejected a high price, reversing away quickly.

On July 23 and today earlier where price hit but lingered around the 1.5680 area. Price hovered around there for many hours.

1) In terms of trader sentiment.

2) In terms of getting in/staying out of the market.

3) Anything more?

Thanks for fielding this. Maybe it's a short hopper to second or maybe it is a line drive toward third.

Lou
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