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  • #1,501
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:33pm Jul 23, 2008 9:33pm
Quoting Siam
hi,

Closed out the euro for a bit of a scalp. there's so much to do on an intraday basis that I find myself spoilt for choice. Takes a lot of the worry out of holding positions for too long also.

Onto the next.
Yeah pretty low liquidity tonight and data coming out soon...not sure if you'll have another chance. But you got your 20 something pips, money is money.
  • #1,502
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:48pm Jul 23, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting rogerdoger
does anyone view the no-brainer for nzd/usd as still likely to create a bounce even though there's been a lot of nzd selling today looks like it could be forming a double bottom?
Hi roger, didnt forget about you, Ive been watching this too. .7400 is a solid area alltogether, but probability on this one sank tonight due to the rate cut. There's going to be very little interest in buying the pair in general short term. But the level is solid, unquestionably. It could get a reaction, but would take a while to get off the ground if it ever does. I'm going to pull it off the NB list though due to our general rules - the biggie: dont fade interest rate hype or data. Its only moved about 100 pips, usually you get more strength than that if you get a cut in general.
  • #1,503
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:49pm Jul 23, 2008 9:49pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long NZD/USD .7400 area

Box a 10 pip range around it so, but it should hit .7400 on the head before coming back up. There should be a lot of buy orders there.
Pulling it off the list due to the rate cut tonight.
  • #1,504
  • Edited 10:37pm Jul 23, 2008 10:04pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/JPY 170.00 area

If this near term high gets broken this area in general has proven to be a hard stomping ground on many occasions in the past; it will be difficult for price to get past this mark. Below is the chart from 1989-1993 (last time price got up that far), so you can see where I'm coming from. 170.00 is at the top of this range, and should be a hard line of resistance.
I just went looking for the NZD trade and found this one; I forgot I posted it in the thread; sorry for not following up sooner. 169.95 got hit today, right within the range of 170.00. Good for +101 pips total. Also looking higher or lower for longs or shorts; some very good technical levels surrounding the current price action.
  • #1,505
  • Jul 23, 2008 11:22pm Jul 23, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi roger, didnt forget about you, Ive been watching this too. .7400 is a solid area alltogether, but probability on this one sank tonight due to the rate cut. There's going to be very little interest in buying the pair in general short term. But the level is solid, unquestionably. It could get a reaction, but would take a while to get off the ground if it ever does. I'm going to pull it off the NB list though due to our general rules - the biggie: dont fade interest rate hype or data. Its only moved about 100 pips, usually you get more strength than that if you get a cut in general.

Even though I do see a weekly reversal upcoming starting Thurs NY or later buying kiwi in the face of a potential series of rate cuts is foolish. Any bounce higher, probably from a short squeeze, should be viewed as a selling opprotunity.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,506
  • Jul 24, 2008 12:40am Jul 24, 2008 12:40am
Hey

Conrats to everyone who was patient with EURUSD trade.I think recent history on H4 map
showed some interesting downward patterns that suggested patience.
At the moment I will wait for 10:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index as it
can have a lot of impact. Then I will see what price action will tell about my
plans for buying around 1.5634 (you can see a lot of stacked orders on that level in the past, also it is weekly support)
  • #1,507
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:17am Jul 24, 2008 1:17am
Quoting Lou
Just looking at it, I see a triple top where in the past price has retreated quickly from the level each time. So that would give some indication as to what will happen again as price approached for the 3rd time.

Then by drawing a diagonal trend line, beginning around July 21 at around 1.9910 (the chart is quite small, even with zoom so I cannot be very precise) and hitting the candle bottoms and bottom wicks as it rises up diagonally, one could have taken a short as price broke the trendline... and gotten most of the pips on the downward move.

That's my thought . Being new to this thread and trying to catch up to the most recent posts, I hope Iron Man ...this is what you mean
You are on the right track for sure (though I never bet the farm on diagonal trendlines by themselves) Price Action is the key and what I am looking at on the chart are the wicks. (I will try to post larger charts in the future)On a 1hr, wicks very often give us turn signals on price. Usually the 3rd candle is a descent entry. If it takes more candles than that often times the move isn't as big.

Overall, a very good analysis of the chart. Keep it up!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #1,508
  • Jul 24, 2008 1:48am Jul 24, 2008 1:48am
BillyRay thanks for yr obs. Unable to post a new chart at moment sorry for the delay in responding - got to sleep sometime!! It's around 9.40 BST and price has dropped past yesterdays low currently now just holding on support around 1.5643/6. Thinking it's going lower.......
So now looking (as per yr post 1484) at the 61.8 fib 1.5582?
Or it is some ways away but support at 15480/500?
  • #1,509
  • Jul 24, 2008 2:33am Jul 24, 2008 2:33am
Cheers from The far East Kimb West Aust
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Chris, this post should hopefully answer your question: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1373
  • #1,510
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:03am Jul 24, 2008 4:03am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Also to bapho and gregus -38 is a pretty good line, but I find myself a little more interested around the 30 level, mainly because of the "cup" formed at the bottom of the price action on this last move up......I'm also looking at that 76.4 retracement as we speak, however, at about .9569 and again at the low at .9476....all 3 should show some sign of weakness I believe, though uncertain where you'll find the biggest payout. I'm thinking is pretty near term. If the push does go further that low should pay out.

Overall there's a ton of support down here, even at the 50 mark as you were saying. Here's what I'm looking at:

We'll see how it plays out. It did have a spike from .9570 overnight for about 65 pips - could be good action down here. I appreciate the feedback Billy.
  • #1,511
  • Jul 24, 2008 4:16am Jul 24, 2008 4:16am
Long 1.9800-1.9790 Lots of S/R in this tight range plus good fib confluence. Not sure about how my fib is drawn, but I like this range even without it. Only problem is that would be after breaking through a trend line, which it is currently testing. Next area comes in at 1.9750's
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  • #1,512
  • Jul 24, 2008 7:47am Jul 24, 2008 7:47am
Nice USD/JPY long setup @ 107.44, a level that was Resistance on the way up, and is just above the 76.4% retracement level of the run up.

Entry on Buy Entry Limit @ 107.44 had max -3 PIPs drawdown, up +19 so far.

Price dipped down after Existing Home Sales announcement, then recovered quickly.

So, on a slow day, a worthwhile scalp at least.
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  • #1,513
  • Edited 8:09am Jul 24, 2008 8:07am | Edited 8:09am
Another nice trade on this slow day.

Short of Euro @ 1.5707, which was Resistance during the previous run down.

1.5717 was the better technical entry, at the 50% pivot level of the run down, and a previous Support level.

However it looked like price wasn't going to make it back up that far, so I grabbed it at 1.5707.

I stuck my Stop Loss above the 1.5717 level.

Max drawdown of -9, got as high as +44 PIPs, currently +36 PIPs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,514
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:09am Jul 24, 2008 8:09am
Hey BRV,

Do you think that we are actually finding resistance off of the top TL and could well reverse all the way down to 1.0139-45 for example. I am asking this since this tight range we are at currently, full of false break-outs could lead to a potential leg down...which could be very well reinforced by bearish US news. Correct me if I`m wrong but is this Friday an OE day ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,515
  • Jul 24, 2008 8:13am Jul 24, 2008 8:13am
Hi. Total newbie here, trying to learn my way around the thread and its protocols. Are not trades supposed to be suggested before the event?

Also, is it OK to ask for explanations? (I have looked and looked at the charts for the "7/22/2008 USD/CHF 1.0036 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +228 - in progress" that's on page 1. I just don't see where/when the trade triggered.)
  • #1,516
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:19am Jul 24, 2008 9:19am
Dollar is strong and doesn't want to give up
  • #1,517
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:28am Jul 24, 2008 9:28am
Quoting Grath
Hi. Total newbie here, trying to learn my way around the thread and its protocols. Are not trades supposed to be suggested before the event?

Also, is it OK to ask for explanations? (I have looked and looked at the charts for the "7/22/2008 USD/CHF 1.0036 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +228 - in progress" that's on page 1. I just don't see where/when the trade triggered.)
Actually thats a mistype. Its UCHF long from 1.0136 and it was posted with a chart here.
  • #1,518
  • Jul 24, 2008 9:36am Jul 24, 2008 9:36am
what do you guys think of a long scalp at 1.9800 in the pound
  • #1,519
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:01am Jul 24, 2008 10:01am
Here's where my inexperience has me at a disadvantage. It might not get above .7490, as that's the spot of the gap, and plenty of history as S/R. However, that's not much of a ret, but I don't know if we should expect much of a ret. if any after the rate cut and announcement of further cuts.
I do expect the dollar to start a ret. period very soon against most pairs.
So, the next level would be up to .7536, although I prefer it at the .7526-29 range which would be 38.2%.
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  • #1,520
  • Jul 24, 2008 10:51am Jul 24, 2008 10:51am
With EURCHF sitting on support now, does anyone see a long here?
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