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  • #1,001
  • Jul 11, 2008 12:40am Jul 11, 2008 12:40am
Quoting Visual One
BRV,

What's the lowest time frame you will use with intraday S/R levels? Also, what would be the no-brainers at those levels?

Thank you.
Usually the lowest I'll look to is 15 minutes. But if I can't find it on an hourly, chances are the level will hold little significance. Actually come to think of it I dont think I take really any trades that I can't see on an hourly at minimum.
  • #1,002
  • Jul 11, 2008 12:46am Jul 11, 2008 12:46am
Trading for gap fills has been a "NO BRAINER" for me. The AUD/USD 15mins chart is showing a price gap between .9574-.9558. It has been my experience that these WILL FILL.

I shorted @ .9620 7 will re-enter if we test the highs before the gap is filled. Even now, there's more than 45 pips on the table at current levels. This tends to be excellent insurance for trades

many pips!
  • #1,003
  • Edited 1:13am Jul 11, 2008 12:47am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting bigslice54
Trading for gap fills has been a "NO BRAINER" for me. The AUD/USD 15mins chart is showing a price gap between .9574-.9558. It has been my experience that these WILL FILL.

I shorted @ .9620 7 will re-enter if we test the highs before the gap is filled. Even now, there's more than 45 pips on the table at current levels. This tends to be excellent insurance for trades

many pips!
Aussie nailed great resistance at .9636 earlier today and showing the obvious decline running for that gap I agree.....eventually they get filled. .9561 shows some good support especially after this happens. Looking for a break of .9590 first though.
  • #1,004
  • Jul 11, 2008 3:12am Jul 11, 2008 3:12am
Quoting Iron-man
Gap trading can work out very well when understood. There are also a few add-on rules that I have that seem to reduce risk. Gaps occur all over the place but the only ones I am interested in are the ones that happen on Sunday. Yen crosses are the currencies that offer the best opportunities. My personal favorvite is GBPJPY.

So the way gaps work for those who don't know is this. If price gaps down then a resistance line is formed at the top of the gap and if price gaps up a support line is formed at the bottom of the gap. SO just as in other areas of S&R these are places you can buy and sell from as price usually goes back to "close the gap"

But what I look for is the more speculative venture of will a gap be there on Sunday which means I have to enter the trade late on Friday near market close.
My rule is simple. I only hold sells, NEVER buys. Let me say that again. NEVER buys. Historically sells payoff much better.

What is my signal? I look for a BIG rally on Friday that ends near a resistance line. I go short near the close on Friday and I PAY interest for the negative carry.

If the market opens lower on Sunday you can take the money and run, always wise. You can hold out for more. Initally you will start to lose money as price moves to close the gap. If it fails to do so you are usually in for a big payday. One of the things I do is take the trade on GBPJPY and watch EJ and UJ . If they close their gaps first then there is a good chance that GJ will turn and go lower as will the other xxxJPY crosses. About six weeks back this happened when GJ broke through a tough resistance area in the 208.70 area on Friday in the closing hour of the session. On Sunday it opened 200 pips lower. It then retraced 100 or so of those pips. At that time the EJ and UJ closed their gaps. GJ then proceeded to drop another 400 pips from there.

Now, of course the other question is, OK I go short and on Sunday price goes up, now what? That can happen, that will happen, that has happened. But it has been my experience that price doesn't gap up as high as it gaps down. Usually 40 pips up is a large gap. So you take the trade and Sunday your sell is down 40 or so pips. The fact that the tendency is for price to close the gap is in your favor of closing the trade at or near break even. Then of course you can go long from the resistance area at the bottom of the gap.

I realize this is a bit of a departure from the no brainer trades. My apologies, Billy Ray. I certainly don't want to alter the course of this thread. I like how it has developed.
Hello Friday!
I actually dislike Fridays now. You can't make any pips on Saturday... but then again there is the gap

Just bumping your post again in hopes that you might pop in around the end of the day to discuss today's finish.
  • #1,005
  • Jul 11, 2008 3:15am Jul 11, 2008 3:15am
Short USD/CHF 1.0392-1.0404

It has stopped price traffic consistently over the past few runs through it; this time should be no different. Double zero fade as well to throw some icing on the cake. In an area like this price will usually take out the double zeros in order to execute all the orders so price can gain momentum in the other direction, as discussed earlier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,006
  • Jul 11, 2008 3:42am Jul 11, 2008 3:42am
Short EUR/JPY 170.00 area

If this near term high gets broken this area in general has proven to be a hard stomping ground on many occasions in the past; it will be difficult for price to get past this mark. Below is the chart from 1989-1993 (last time price got up that far), so you can see where I'm coming from. 170.00 is at the top of this range, and should be a hard line of resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,007
  • Jul 11, 2008 3:51am Jul 11, 2008 3:51am
BRV,

Since the 170 area doesn't hit any significant tops or bottoms, on what are you basing the S/R level?

Visual One
  • #1,008
  • Jul 11, 2008 3:56am Jul 11, 2008 3:56am
Quoting Visual One
BRV,

Since the 170 area doesn't hit any significant tops or bottoms, on what are you basing the S/R level?

Visual One
The history going back from 1989 through 1993. Some charting platforms might not go that far back. The screenshot above is just from northfinance on metatrader.
  • #1,009
  • Jul 11, 2008 4:12am Jul 11, 2008 4:12am
BRV,

Why is 1.0392 which doesn't appear to hit many bottoms better than 1.0320 which does hit bottoms? In short, many times your S/R levels seem to take congestion more into account rather than straight tops and bottoms. A bit confused.

Thanks,

Visual One
  • #1,010
  • Jul 11, 2008 4:23am Jul 11, 2008 4:23am
Quoting Visual One
BRV,

Why is 1.0392 which doesn't appear to hit many bottoms better than 1.0320 which does hit bottoms? In short, many times your S/R levels seem to take congestion more into account rather than straight tops and bottoms. A bit confused.

Thanks,

Visual One
Hi Visual One, 1.0392 is the last high on the downtrend turned uptrend. Usually the last wave carries the most significance in regards to the actual turning point. There have been many times in the past where this whole area in general has reacted as a reversal level. I'm just using this last move down as the meter. But regardless I believe that price will hit 1.0400 for the reasons previously mentioned.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,011
  • Jul 11, 2008 4:40am Jul 11, 2008 4:40am
BRV --

Long-time reader, first-time poster

Thanks for answering this question from Visual One. I had the same question; I didn't see how 1.0392 was resistance. Along these lines, would you say that 1.0130-1.0110 would be support on the southside and to go long from that range?

I'm also interested in more information regarding analysis of the weekly COT report and what sort of impact that information has on your trading for the next week. Could you (or anyone else) point me in the right direction of some analysis derived from this information or perhaps share a little knowledge of your own?

Thank you so much for this thread; it is greatly appreciated.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Visual One, 1.0392 is the last high on the downtrend turned uptrend. Usually the last wave carries the most significance in regards to the actual turning point. There have been many times in the past where this whole area in general has reacted as a market turning point. I'm just using this last move down as the meter. But regardless I believe that price will hit 1.0400 for the reasons previoulsy mentioned.
  • #1,012
  • Jul 11, 2008 4:43am Jul 11, 2008 4:43am
Dear Thread,

Did anyone ever consider putting on a large position when you have the confluence of a no brainer trade combined with a cheap ATM option, i.e. 2-3 days to expiry? ---In short, the options would give you the ability to survive all heat so you could completely define your risk and hence put on a large position.

Visual One
  • #1,013
  • Jul 11, 2008 4:55am Jul 11, 2008 4:55am
Quoting oakmac
BRV --

Long-time reader, first-time poster

Thanks for answering this question from Visual One. I had the same question; I didn't see how 1.0392 was resistance. Along these lines, would you say that 1.0130-1.0110 would be support on the southside and to go long from that range?

I'm also interested in more information regarding analysis of the weekly COT report and what sort of impact that information has on your trading for the next week. Could you (or anyone else) point me in the right direction of some analysis derived from this information or perhaps share a little knowledge of your own?

Thank you so much for this thread; it is greatly appreciated.
pfxglobal.com is a good source for the information you seek.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,014
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:02am Jul 11, 2008 5:02am
If you are looking for some action the biggest market mover news of last quarter is set to repeat in about half hour.
History is written by the victors.
  • #1,015
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:08am Jul 11, 2008 5:08am
Quoting oakmac
BRV --

Long-time reader, first-time poster

Thanks for answering this question from Visual One. I had the same question; I didn't see how 1.0392 was resistance. Along these lines, would you say that 1.0130-1.0110 would be support on the southside and to go long from that range?

I'm also interested in more information regarding analysis of the weekly COT report and what sort of impact that information has on your trading for the next week. Could you (or anyone else) point me in the right direction of some analysis derived from this information or perhaps share a little knowledge of your own?

Thank you so much for this thread; it is greatly appreciated.
Hi oakmac, thanks for the reply, in regards to your first question, here is 1.0392 in action over and over again over the past few hits.

To the second question, the COT report is used only as a very general means of assessing market sentiment, and is used primarily as a meter in terms of what to expect out of each trade. But market conditions change all the time, so I dont like to depend 100%, but it can be used as a guide only.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,016
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:16am Jul 11, 2008 5:16am
Thanks for that new image BRV; it makes 1.0392 much clearer.

I think I'm starting to get the hang of this. Just made a short-term long on the EUR/USD when it broke the 1.5800 resistance for a few pips.

What do you think of my analysis of the support on the USD/CHF?

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi oakmac, thanks for the reply, in regards to your first question, here is 1.0392 in action over and over again over the past few hits.

To the second question, the COT report is used only as a very general means of assessing market sentiment, and is used primarily as a meter in terms of what to expect out of each trade. But market conditions change all the time, so I dont like to depend 100%, but it can be used as a guide only.
  • #1,017
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:20am Jul 11, 2008 5:20am
Quoting oakmac
Thanks for that new image BRV; it makes 1.0392 much clearer.

I think I'm starting to get the hang of this. Just made a short-term long on the EUR/USD when it broke the 1.5800 resistance for a few pips.

What do you think of my analysis of the support on the USD/CHF?
I agree with the support level, yes. Just a word of caution on buying those breakouts though. A lot of times they can be false and the market can run right against them. Waiting for the hourly close above them (which actually did happen here) or buying at the resistance turned support after the breakout is confirmed is typically the safer trade.
  • #1,018
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:26am Jul 11, 2008 5:26am
Hi

What do you think about this possible bounce from 1.0214 - 1.0231 area on usdcad pair. I'm not after big move here but if the bounce occur i would move s/l (1.0190 - below lower minor resistance) to breakeven if price hit 1.0250
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,019
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:32am Jul 11, 2008 5:32am
I cannot tell you how much this makes sense to me now. I've had some terrible problems getting whipsawed on false breakouts in the past. Thanks for your insight!

Now waiting to see what happens when it touches 1.5800 again. If it is support I'll go long again and try to snag a few more pips.

Quoting BillyRayValentine
I agree with the support level, yes. Just a word of caution on buying those breakouts though. A lot of times they can be false and the market can run right against them. Waiting for the hourly close above them (which actually did happen here) or buying at the resistance turned support after the breakout is confirmed is typically the safer trade.
  • #1,020
  • Jul 11, 2008 5:34am Jul 11, 2008 5:34am
Quoting oakmac
I cannot tell you how much this makes sense to me now. I've had some terrible problems getting whipsawed on false breakouts in the past. Thanks for your insight!

Now waiting to see what happens when it touches 1.5800 again. If it is support I'll go long again and try to snag a few more pips.
Now you're getting it .
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