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No Brainer Trades

  • #1,461
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:48pm Jul 23, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Congrats dude I've been waiting for this one all week. I'm playing it a bit different. I'm going to hold my shorts from 7720 and add more on any ST retracement. I'm going for the fences on this one, looking for 7350 area.

I cut another 1/3 here at 7506. I know I know I'm not following thru with my analysis but I've made a truckload from this trade and I don't feel like giving any back. I really didn't expect the kiwi to be this low before the rate announcement. 1.3 lots still open
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,462
  • Jul 23, 2008 1:50pm Jul 23, 2008 1:50pm
gbp/jpy blew thru resistance at 214.00. Unfortunately for me, I was looking for yen strength and missed the breakout to the upside. 217.30 level looks to be next resistance level on daily chart.221.00 area is 50% retracement level of the 251.06 high to the 192.57 low
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  • #1,463
  • Jul 23, 2008 2:49pm Jul 23, 2008 2:49pm
Hi BillyRay - really enjoying this thread and hoped you might be able to comment on this chart pls. I am looking for support to go long at
1.5643 maybe momentum of last 2 days will take it below here?
1.5600 not much support here but is a fib level
1.5529 support level though not as much as ......
1.5466 ib level and support of 16th-24th June. This looks a good level and my preference but is it to low? Your view and reasons why would be appreciated
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  • #1,464
  • Jul 23, 2008 3:07pm Jul 23, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
This hit a few moments ago and good for only +27 pips so far. Some pretty whacky price action going on my tick charts so there is clearly a lot of interest in this level. Nailed 1.0392 right on the head. Anyway there it is, but not sure if the USD strength will prevail so watching carefully as there are a lot of buyers out there in general today after yesterday's spike. From the last downleg its also coincidentally a .618 retracement so all the better. We'll see how it goes.

FYI I know some of you have been asking some questions in the past couple of days and I'll do my best to get around the them when I can but pretty busy today in general.
The USDCHF pushed through the 1.0332-1.0352 resistance yesterday after a brief struggle and is headed to the next level of resistance. I agree with BRV that the next resistance level is around 1.0392 to 1.0420. Keep in mind that the pairs has gone up over 200 pips and typically needs to retrace before another move occurs.
  • #1,465
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:04pm Jul 23, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I cut another 1/3 here at 7506. I know I know I'm not following thru with my analysis but I've made a truckload from this trade and I don't feel like giving any back. I really didn't expect the kiwi to be this low before the rate announcement. 1.3 lots still open

darn darn darn. RBNZ cut to 8%. Feels great to bag 7k+ on one trade but I left about 3k on the table.

Ah well, I'm out. done. finito.

This will be a no brainer buy, along with everything else, VS the USD on a FREAKY REVERSAL FRIDAY

ps this will weigh on the aussie as well so avoid buying it for 16 hrs, imo
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,466
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:40pm Jul 23, 2008 4:40pm
Thanks for all your knowledge Billy , my question is are you concentrating on a multitude of pairs or just a set few as part of your trading strategy?? once again thanks

Chris
  • #1,467
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:07pm Jul 23, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting pastork
looks like eur/usd is heading for 1.5800, i hope every one is watching, also usd/jpy 107.35pls brv bo brokers target stop loss, if so what do you advice on mental stop loss espesially wen you are watching the market, this is bcos i was short on eur/usd from last night and immediately i got stopped out,the pair has done 120pips, iam so so so so so angry,pls advice
Hi Pastork, in respose to your question about stops, its going to vary based on the situation. My default stop loss for all trades is 40 pips, but that can change.

If you take a trade like the CHF trade today, I'm overall expecting some decent-sized retracement, so I stick with the 40 pip stop loss. As long as the stop is above my expected reversal range I'm fine. So for instance, if I expect price to reverse from 1.6000-1.6030 on EUR, I want to be sure my stop is above 1.6030, so 1.6040, or 40 pips, would work fine.

For smaller intraday trades where my only intention is to scalp, I'll usually use a tighter stop, around 20 pips or so, becuase I'm essentially expecting price to snap right back, on the dime, at a level I have predetermined. If it doesn't, something else is usually wrong, so there's no sense in hanging onto a loser.

If there are multiple possible reversal areas in a particular region, say on EUR I have 1.5800 - 1.5805 and 1.5840 - 1.5845, as an example, I might look to put on only a portion of the position at 1.5800 with a s/l above 1.5845, adding the rest of the position on at 1.5840, with a 40 pip stop loss. That way my risk % stays the same as with any other trade and I'm protected in terms of anything snapping against me.
  • #1,468
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:11pm Jul 23, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting rogerdoger
how does this look for the pound yen?
Hi rogerd, when you see a level like this getting tested over and over again its usually a good sign that its going to bust. My personal rule is to enter these levels the first time they get hit because the more they get whacked, the less likely they are to hold.
  • #1,469
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:17pm Jul 23, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting JackButler
I just started on this thread and it has been the most informative material I have ever found beyond the basics. Great job, Billy. What an eye opener. I am already identifying trades that when wrong based on the common technicals that would have been avoided (or in the proper direction) if I had this information on hand. This info is out of the ball park. Thank you.

General question: Do you think it would be of any use (to anyone other than me) to post the current support resistance target areas for the pairs you trade? My thinking is that if we're all watching the same target, there would be a collective focus on direction. I know about the EUDUSD big 1.6000 but I'm looking at the USDCHF 1.0345 and USDJPY 107.60 as resistance but I have no confidence in my assessment since it's a new world for me. Perhaps a summary on your lead thread might do the trick.

As for your birthday, a collective toast is definitely the right idea. Thanks agian.

Jim
Hi Jim,
I would do my best to post targets but the time it would take I'm not too sure I would be too prepared for. The best thing to do is take a look at the last wave moving in the opposite direction of your trade and look at the reactionary levels. Also, skip back to a larger timeframe and do the regular analysis as you would to enter a trade, would be my best advice. If you like there is a link to a post on the first post of the thread called taking profits, that discusses this issue a little more. Also thank you for the comments; much appreciated.
  • #1,470
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:20pm Jul 23, 2008 5:20pm
Quoting pipeye
All of your efforts are very much appreciated, Billy. I am constantly being enlightened by this thread. Thanks a ton!

If you don't mind me asking, how many hours do you log per day and when?
Thanks pipeye. Very much varies - if you have something though, please post and I'll do what I can when I can.
  • #1,471
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:24pm Jul 23, 2008 5:24pm
Quoting Iron-man
Does anyone see something in the chart below BESIDES S&R levels that would have given you most of the profit to be had. Up front I will say that it is always easier to spot things after the fact but it is possible to do in the heat of battle with practice. SO what is it? ..........Anyone? ..............Anyone?
Is the answer: Because you're trading it?
  • #1,472
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:28pm Jul 23, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting rpasupathy
Hi Billy,

Hats off to you for this wonderfull thread .... I am a newcomer to Forex and it really helps me a lot.... I am yet to study the thread fully ... will do so during the weekend ....

What is your level to long EURUSD. Is it 1.5670 as told earlier .???

Cheers and keep it going ........
A little late for this post but yes it was, and I'm currenly long but wouldnt be surprised to see another drop before the major correction comes, so Im watching it carefully....actually I'm not too sure I take any trades that I dont watch carefully; I'm paranoid in my own sense, this I'll admit.
  • #1,473
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:30pm Jul 23, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Billy how are you? What is your outlook on USD/CHF? seems like confluence of weekly daily fibs around 1.0374-1.0380 do you deem that level as a good short area?
Thank you for your insight ad help!
Hi Banda, Hit the trade level posted and looking for a retracement here but on any pushes higher looking around 1.0445 and then 1.0479. Have to look at price action if and when it gets up there though; too soon to tell which one will get the most pips.
  • #1,474
  • Edited 7:15pm Jul 23, 2008 5:31pm | Edited 7:15pm
Hey BRV,

Well if your into recurring patterns playing out, here is one that is heavily on my radar. Below are two charts of the gbp/jpy:

Chart 1 -in the box is the pattern of the gbp/jpy from 03/06/07 - 07/20/07 a total of 136 days.

Chart 2 -in the box is the current pattern of the gbp/jpy from 03/17/08 - ? 136 days would coincide with the 31st of July 2008 (the red X).

If this were to play out as scripted, then a possible no brainer would be the intersection of the uptrending resistance line, the 50% fib from the entire decline and the light blue previous resistance line, all around the 221.50 area at the end of the month. This would all seem to fit into the bigger picture continuation of the high level downtrend.

Just some food for thought.
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  • #1,475
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:32pm Jul 23, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting intrieri22
Hi Billy: I am new to the post - I like what I have read so far. I did not see the AUD/USD trade you suggested until it appeared this morning on the first page. According to what you wrote in the notes section on page 1, the trades will appear ahead of time so there is time to look them over. Is this usually the case? I would like to know ahead of time what you are recommending so I can gain an understanding of the method with real trades. Thanks for your time. I like what I see here - just want to learn as much as I can.
Hi there, I dont put them on the first page until they get executed, otherwise, they admittedly get buried in the thread. There are still quite a few pending trades out there but I honestly dont like to drag too much attention to them until they hit for reasons I hope you can figure out .
  • #1,476
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:46pm Jul 23, 2008 5:46pm
I'll take a stab at this.

Short 1.5807. Should be between 1.5800-1.5811. This is 50% ret from the big move down (assuming the big move has stalled). The next level would be 1.5843 which is just above 61.8% ret., so that might push the SL to 45 or 50, but I'm fine sticking with 40. I don't think price gets above 1.5800, and there's lots of room down. I know everyone is long on this pair, but I think the tide is turning. Too many unhappy Euro's about the strength of this pair, dovish Euro comments, increasing odds that the Fed will increase rates this year, and data that although is still weak, is not weakening further along side inflation flags. I've been short for a while now, so maybe I'm just trying to make myself feel better.

EDIT: Oh yeah, there's also that whole head and shoulders thingy.
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  • #1,477
  • Edited 6:50pm Jul 23, 2008 5:50pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting faq123
Hi BRV,

I have a question or two regarding this trade, hope you don't mind.

First of all is my fib correctly drawn?

Secondly, would you have taken the long at candle A expecting the bounce from the 50%? If not why not? If you had taken this long I assume you would have been stopped out with your static stop of 40 pips, correct?

http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f1.../usdchf_1a.gif


Could you also please clarify something for me: do you consider this method to be purely technical. I get the impression that it is technical for intraday trades but you should also consider fundamentals for the longer term.

I also wonder what would happen if you entered a postion, say a long, and price continued going down into a predefined range. So for example if you opened your first trade at 1.0130 and price went down another 10 pips at which point you would scale in another position, so you would now have two longs, one at 1.0130 and one at 1.0120. My question is what would be the reference point for your static Stop, the first or subsequent entries.

One more thing, silly newbie-ish question really, but what exactly do you mean when you use the word fade?

With thanks,
Hi there, fib looks good; good thing about metatrader is you can snap the fib right to the price bar. I wouldn't have taken the 50% retracement because of the interest rate news yesterday; dollar was getting crushed. I tried to scalp long eur here in there, but only succeeded 1 out of 2 times, closing flat in terms of trying to do that. Even despite the news, though, the retracement provided a good reaction, and under a non-hysteric market I would have probably tried to short the dollar there. There is a good amount of s/r prevalent and the ret is obviously monitored.

Fade means to trade against......in other words, price is going up, and you want to fade it, meaning short it.

I dont get too fixated on fundamentals for daytrading for a number of different reasons - too much noise being the main one - I have tried, but the main result of me digging throughout all the news is confusion, losses and stress. Markets, despite human conflict and interaction, have a certain concourse of propotionality that gets followed, and it needs to be recognized at one point or another. I'm not talking about market efficiency theory, I'm talking in sheer terms of price proportion; thats one of the reasons I like Fib levels so much. Playing these s/r levels synchronize the trader with bankflow activity and overall market momentum. While I'm in trades, I watch fundamental activity pretty closely, as I dont want anything to screw up a good thing. I'm not a long-term position trader; I'm only seeking 20 to 200 pips usually, otherwise my trading regimen would be very different, and fundamentals at the top of my radar, among market hysteria. You have to be "dumb" to trade sometimes and take news events and government actions pretty seriously because the rest of the market is. If we look at the current rise of the dollar in the last 2 days, it was triggered merely by one hawkish Fed member's comment, and plans made by our government to help out the housing crisis and oil situation (and people say weaker priced oil, but there are plenty of times when oil has rallied and USD gets smashed). At the end of the day we're talking all plans, but no actual results. In fact the actual results came out with the Beige Book today and few people seemed to care in terms of USD. Its rediculous, but this is how the market works. There is a little more color on this at the bottom of the following post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1404

In response to your s/l question, I just relied to a very similar question made by pastork, hopefull that should give you a good idea.
  • #1,478
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:52pm Jul 23, 2008 5:52pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
hello all, I cannot believe how much knowledge I have read contained in these posts. . . I think it just goes to show the character of the main contributors in regards to sharing as opposed to charging. . . I know I would have! (Of course I am a money hungry paramedic. . . . watch your wallet when we come and get you ).

So for my first post (draw in deep breath take a step into the big boy pool)

I like a short at 108.20-.35 on USD/JPY
(now naturally since it is my luck and I am am putting this out there with my rep, it will obviously break through my call on its way to 110 then shatter that on its way to 114. . . I should change my username to GeorgeCostanza and whatever my instinct is do the opposite )

Regardless, it has been a pleasure learning

+Lemming
Hi Lemming, want this tracked on the first post? Thanks,
  • #1,479
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:56pm Jul 23, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting leis
Hi BillyRay - really enjoying this thread and hoped you might be able to comment on this chart pls. I am looking for support to go long at
1.5643 maybe momentum of last 2 days will take it below here?
1.5600 not much support here but is a fib level
1.5529 support level though not as much as ......
1.5466 ib level and support of 16th-24th June. This looks a good level and my preference but is it to low? Your view and reasons why would be appreciated
Hi leis, I think you need to redraw your fib actually. You would want it to go from the very bottom of the last wave (1.5302) to the very top (1.6037)....I would reevaluate your entries based on the new wave....try and do that and let me know what you come up with I'll be happy to take a look.
  • #1,480
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:57pm Jul 23, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting demeo
Thanks for all your knowledge Billy , my question is are you concentrating on a multitude of pairs or just a set few as part of your trading strategy?? once again thanks

Chris
Hi Chris, this post should hopefully answer your question: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1373
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