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  • #1,441
  • Jul 23, 2008 3:39am Jul 23, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Siam
That's pretty much where i got stopped out today, Should of manged that one better, down to 21356 at one point . I'll leave this one alone for now. There have been a nice couple of bounces on cable today straight off support and a 50 fib level,good for intra day. So much going on when you trade this stuff i'ts sometimes hard to keep up with it all.

I hear ya dude. I got stopped for a loss on the same move. You have to stick to your beliefs. The bounce down stopped at 213.55 which kept the ST channel intact. Granted I really didn't know what was going to happen at the time, but when it gradually moved back up to 213.8 I re entered and when it broke 214 convincingly I loaded up. Good news from MPC minutes now, it's still not too late to buy this on a dip. Good trades.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,442
  • Jul 23, 2008 4:44am Jul 23, 2008 4:44am
215.11/215.37/215.47 look to be the next logical levels of resistance for the gbp/jpy.
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  • #1,443
  • Jul 23, 2008 5:37am Jul 23, 2008 5:37am
Does anyone see something in the chart below BESIDES S&R levels that would have given you most of the profit to be had. Up front I will say that it is always easier to spot things after the fact but it is possible to do in the heat of battle with practice. SO what is it? ..........Anyone? ..............Anyone?
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Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #1,444
  • Jul 23, 2008 6:06am Jul 23, 2008 6:06am
GU is being pulled down by bad data/fundamentals, and up by GY, last momentum looks stronger atm so we have short/medium-term uptrend
  • #1,445
  • Jul 23, 2008 7:04am Jul 23, 2008 7:04am
Can someone shed some light on why Cable is so well bid this morning contradicting USD strength across the board?
Can the EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY crosses really drive the much larger pair?
  • #1,446
  • Edited 7:24am Jul 23, 2008 7:08am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting finswin56
Can someone shed some light on why Cable is so well bid this morning contradicting USD strength across the board?
Can the EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY crosses really drive the much larger pair?
Strength in the Pound-Yen can pull up Cable at the same time... some comment that that is what happened this morning:

"Traders mention that a decent-sized asset manager cited for the strong demand see in sterling-yen during the European morning the pair see as a lead in cable's push back above $2.0000" (Market News International @ 8:03:19 am EDT)

I shorted Cable at 2.0005, so I'm looking for it to take a dive now !

Cheers, Loudoniii

PS: Just got out of Cable short +1, but also made +12 on Swissie short at the same time, which defies conventional logic ...
  • #1,447
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:23am Jul 23, 2008 8:23am
Quoting loudoniii
Strength in the Pound-Yen can pull up Cable at the same time... some comment that that is what happened this morning:

"Traders mention that a decent-sized asset manager cited for the strong demand see in sterling-yen during the European morning the pair see as a lead in cable's push back above $2.0000" (Market News International @ 8:03:19 am EDT)

I shorted Cable at 2.0005, so I'm looking for it to take a dive now !

Cheers, Loudoniii

PS: Just got out of Cable short +1, but also made +12 on Swissie short at the same time, which defies conventional logic ...
Thanks. Just seems totally out of sync with rest of the market to my newbie eye.

I shorted at 2.0010. Prices have been consolidating, so I either I am way off (thinking there will be a snap back) or I'll have gone in at a good value.

good times.
  • #1,448
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:37am Jul 23, 2008 8:37am
Quoting Iron-man
Does anyone see something in the chart below BESIDES S&R levels that would have given you most of the profit to be had. Up front I will say that it is always easier to spot things after the fact but it is possible to do in the heat of battle with practice. SO what is it? ..........Anyone? ..............Anyone?
I'm hoping it's not something more obvious than lower lows, followed by lower highs, then higher lows followed by higher highs, and so on.

Please Mr Ironman, put me out of my misery.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,449
  • Jul 23, 2008 8:48am Jul 23, 2008 8:48am
hmmm...could it be that markets are flat before monthly crude oil figures due in a little bit ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #1,450
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:01am Jul 23, 2008 9:01am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long AUD/USD 0.9668 - 0.9663

This is the most significant recent high before this last AUD uptrend, also coinciding with a .50 retracement. Should be a good reaction when price touches it.
Hi everyone,

0.9668 got hit for an immediate reaction of about +19 but never went any further than that that - just too many aud sellers out there after yesterday. If you were able to grab the bounce from the next retracement at .9620 that seemed to be the one that paid the best overall. Onto the next.....
  • #1,451
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:08am Jul 23, 2008 9:08am
Hi Billy how are you? What is your outlook on USD/CHF? seems like confluence of weekly daily fibs around 1.0374-1.0380 do you deem that level as a good short area?
Thank you for your insight ad help!
BANDA333
  • #1,452
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:11am Jul 23, 2008 9:11am
Hi Billy,

Hats off to you for this wonderfull thread .... I am a newcomer to Forex and it really helps me a lot.... I am yet to study the thread fully ... will do so during the weekend ....

What is your level to long EURUSD. Is it 1.5670 as told earlier .???

Cheers and keep it going ........
The One Who Makes The Thunder Roar Also Hears A Butterfly Sigh - Ruzbeh
  • #1,453
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:46am Jul 23, 2008 9:46am
Hi Billy: I am new to the post - I like what I have read so far. I did not see the AUD/USD trade you suggested until it appeared this morning on the first page. According to what you wrote in the notes section on page 1, the trades will appear ahead of time so there is time to look them over. Is this usually the case? I would like to know ahead of time what you are recommending so I can gain an understanding of the method with real trades. Thanks for your time. I like what I see here - just want to learn as much as I can.
  • #1,454
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:50am Jul 23, 2008 9:50am
Quoting finswin56
Can someone shed some light on why Cable is so well bid this morning contradicting USD strength across the board?
Can the EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY crosses really drive the much larger pair?

The BOE minutes came back and one member unexpectedly voted for a rate increase. Details are in this article. It's important to know all news or data releases as well as studying the charts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...N2A&refer=home
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,455
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:50am Jul 23, 2008 9:50am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone,

0.9668 got hit for an immediate reaction of about +19 but never went any further than that that - just too many aud sellers out there after yesterday. If you were able to grab the bounce from the next retracement at .9620 that seemed to be the one that paid the best overall. Onto the next.....
With Gold collapsing, if price can get back to that .9660 area, that should be a good short spot, right?
  • #1,456
  • Jul 23, 2008 9:52am Jul 23, 2008 9:52am
Quoting TexasforEX
The BOE minutes came back and one member unexpectedly voted for a rate increase. Details are in this article. It's important to know all news or data releases as well as studying the charts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...N2A&refer=home
Yeah, I saw that, but don't recall one dissenting voter causing so much strength for a currency very often. It seemed a bit of an over reaction to me. Anyway, ignorant opinion on my part or not, so far my short is working out well. I guess it really is better to be lucky
  • #1,457
  • Edited 10:13am Jul 23, 2008 9:54am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short USD/CHF 1.0392-1.0404

It has stopped price traffic consistently over the past few runs through it; this time should be no different. Double zero fade as well to throw some icing on the cake. In an area like this price will usually take out the double zeros in order to execute all the orders so price can gain momentum in the other direction, as discussed earlier.
This hit a few moments ago and good for only +27 pips so far. Some pretty whacky price action going on my tick charts so there is clearly a lot of interest in this level. Nailed 1.0392 right on the head. Anyway there it is, but not sure if the USD strength will prevail so watching carefully as there are a lot of buyers out there in general today after yesterday's spike. From the last downleg its also coincidentally a .618 retracement so all the better. We'll see how it goes.

FYI I know some of you have been asking some questions in the past couple of days and I'll do my best to get around the them when I can but pretty busy today in general.
  • #1,458
  • Jul 23, 2008 10:11am Jul 23, 2008 10:11am
Quoting finswin56
Yeah, I saw that, but don't recall one dissenting voter causing so much strength for a currency very often. It seemed a bit of an over reaction to me. Anyway, ignorant opinion on my part or not, so far my short is working out well. I guess it really is better to be lucky
Combining that with an overwhelming demand for gbp/jpy made for a strong pound. We all make our own luck dude. Hang in there(not a trade recommendation, offering encouragement)....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #1,459
  • Edited 1:27pm Jul 23, 2008 12:39pm | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Plosser made a comment about a rate hike that worked out very well for this trade so were up about +66 at the most here. Nice but totally unexpected.
Hi BRV,

I have a question or two regarding this trade, hope you don't mind.

First of all is my fib correctly drawn?

Secondly, would you have taken the long at candle A expecting the bounce from the 50%? If not why not? If you had taken this long I assume you would have been stopped out with your static stop of 40 pips, correct?

http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f1.../usdchf_1a.gif


Could you also please clarify something for me: do you consider this method to be purely technical. I get the impression that it is technical for intraday trades but you should also consider fundamentals for the longer term.

I also wonder what would happen if you entered a postion, say a long, and price continued going down into a predefined range. So for example if you opened your first trade at 1.0130 and price went down another 10 pips at which point you would scale in another position, so you would now have two longs, one at 1.0130 and one at 1.0120. My question is what would be the reference point for your static Stop, the first or subsequent entries.

One more thing, silly newbie-ish question really, but what exactly do you mean when you use the word fade?

With thanks,
  • #1,460
  • Edited 1:24pm Jul 23, 2008 1:03pm | Edited 1:24pm
hello all, I cannot believe how much knowledge I have read contained in these posts. . . I think it just goes to show the character of the main contributors in regards to sharing as opposed to charging. . . I know I would have! (Of course I am a money hungry paramedic. . . . watch your wallet when we come and get you ).

So for my first post (draw in deep breath take a step into the big boy pool)

I like a short at 108.20-.35 on USD/JPY
(now naturally since it is my luck and I am am putting this out there with my rep, it will obviously break through my call on its way to 110 then shatter that on its way to 114. . . I should change my username to GeorgeCostanza and whatever my instinct is do the opposite )

Regardless, it has been a pleasure learning

+Lemming
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