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  • #1,301
  • Jul 20, 2008 10:42pm Jul 20, 2008 10:42pm
huatboyz,

nice short - 16954 is aslo the high for Friday. So if the market goes through 16825 then the daily trend will be short. Also an outside day.
  • #1,302
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:21pm Jul 20, 2008 11:21pm
is anyone short from e/j right now? or are you expecting another bump up in the price for the actual no-brainer (at 170)?
  • #1,303
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:29pm Jul 20, 2008 11:29pm
Hi,

I am short @ 169.44.

Cheers and GL to everyone.
Pips Collector EA, No Martingale, No Grid
  • #1,304
  • Jul 20, 2008 11:38pm Jul 20, 2008 11:38pm
I'm short too, looks like it bounced close to where oanda told us it would but not really
  • #1,305
  • Jul 21, 2008 1:50am Jul 21, 2008 1:50am
Hi,

I'm in a long trade at the mo @ 212.20 on this pair had a nice bounce on the 4hr. Thinking of adding some to this if things still hold.
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  • #1,306
  • Edited 4:36am Jul 21, 2008 3:13am | Edited 4:36am
So far market countinues slow pace rythm, as usual for monday. I am out of trading until I see some better price action.
  • #1,307
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:14am Jul 21, 2008 3:14am
Quoting djambazov84
Do you guys think we can add this to the tracking of trades ?
It is a live trade taken yesterday and I am willing to pick all the negative/positive comments for it
Thanks, but needs to be posted before the trade occurrs, house rules .
  • #1,308
  • Edited 4:11am Jul 21, 2008 3:33am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting finswin56
I've been trying to make heads or tails of this, probably without much luck though. I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to options. I "think" I know what I'm seeing, but I don't really know how to interpret the data in regards to how it will play out tomorrow.

On the CME site, I see more longs than shorts just below today's lows of 1.5785. On Phlx, there seems to be significant call volume at 1.5700.
Am I reading this correctly?

At the risk of pushing your generosity to the limits, would mind giving a little more detail on how you look at the call/put strikes in relation to how the day might work.
Hi finswin - trying to get around to all of these posts sorry for the late response....option ex day is only going to pose some kind of serious volatility if and only if key levels are still intact. This last week we saw most all key areas get blown out earlier in the week due to the heavy volatility (eur high, jpy 107 and lows, gbp 2.1, aud highs, etc).....you get to the point where you can draw a box around these areas early in the month and guage what the market is looking at in terms of areas to take a beating (eg UJ high at 108.60 area will come into attention this month, all the way down to 102.5 - will be easier to pinpoint higher or lower later on in the month). Also, the open interest is simply the strike prices where significant buying and selling are occurring, and can be used mainly as a meter to see where the significant attention is in the market. Usually when there is a lot of attention there is a draw in price, as we have seen. Heavy buying and selling of touch/no-touch options will move the market the most, and I'm trying to find more online resources as we speak....unfortunately the best info is available only through Bloomberg, as these are all traded in private OTC deals across the market, and aven then volume data is limited to nil. The best public info we have right now are available through the CME and the 2 US exchanges as no one has access to bankflows, which would of course be the most helpful. Rumors spread across the market usually prior to expiration in regards to these levels and its sometime difficult to discern whats right and whats wrong. If I come across any info I'll pass it along but as of now they can provide a helpful meter on areas to look at, mainly.
  • #1,309
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:38am Jul 21, 2008 3:38am
Quoting djambazov84
HEY BRV,

I have an idea...given all the questions posed to you so far, a majority of them tends to share common points. Now, a few days ago a member of this thread gave me an extremely valuable summation of another s&r thread and that helped me save dozens of hours going through the "noise" in that particular thread. I`m thinking about collaborating with someone here so that
we can create a convenient .pdf summary of yours and other great posts here so that new members could easily download it and go over it at their please when they have some down time. I have found out that the more "educated" and prepared someone is the better trading suggestion he or she can produce. With such a summary we can also minimize the time you want to spend answering questions already asked so that we can all concentrate on evaluating new possible trade set-ups.

-good luck all
sure sounds good - I'm actually going to post links to key posts at the front of this thread when I get a couple extra minutes this week to help clear things up for newer readers; I'll post when its done.
  • #1,310
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:42am Jul 21, 2008 3:42am
Quoting Siam
Hi,

I'm in a long trade at the mo @ 212.20 on this pair had a nice bounce on the 4hr. Thinking of adding some to this if things still hold.

Siam - Great call.
  • #1,311
  • Jul 21, 2008 4:11am Jul 21, 2008 4:11am
Quoting finswin56
I've been trying to make heads or tails of this, probably without much luck though. I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to options. I "think" I know what I'm seeing, but I don't really know how to interpret the data in regards to how it will play out tomorrow.

On the CME site, I see more longs than shorts just below today's lows of 1.5785. On Phlx, there seems to be significant call volume at 1.5700.
Am I reading this correctly?

At the risk of pushing your generosity to the limits, would mind giving a little more detail on how you look at the call/put strikes in relation to how the day might work.
Also, what might be most helpful to you (and what I look at the most intraday) are key futures to see where things are headed - there is a strong corrlation to be held about a number of different things and relevant currency pairs.

For example -

S&P futures up, USD/JPY up, also affecting other currencies pegged to USD but not to the magnitude (primary to oil as higher spx will push the pair harder and faster - also oil down can mean spx up, especially recently so there is a minor tug-of-war here)
Oil up, USD/CAD (big exporter) down, USD/JPY (big importer) up, hence CAD/JPY up
Gold up, AUD/USD and NZD/USD up (big producers) - USD/CHF down (but not as relevant CHF has a portion of its currency pegged to Gold)
Fed Fund futures up, USD up
etc....
US imports about half of its oil, Japan about all of it, Aussie is the worlds 3rd largest producer of gold, closely linked with New Zealand, and we all know about interest rates

hope this helps...
  • #1,312
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:07am Jul 21, 2008 5:07am
Someone asked a while back about good and free news sources.

Economic announcements and the best general market commentary I've found so far: http://retail.ransquawk.com/

(30 seconds delayed - if you want it faster you need to pay)

Instant economic release announcements: http://www.newsstrike.com

(US session only unfortunately and you need to install the TeamSpeak software)
  • #1,313
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:09am Jul 21, 2008 5:09am
Quoting Kane Rai
Someone asked a while back about good and free news sources.

Economic announcements and the best general market commentary I've found so far: http://retail.ransquawk.com/

(30 seconds delayed - if you want it faster you need to pay)

Instant economic release announcements: http://www.newsstrike.com

(US session only unfortunately and you need to install the TeamSpeak software)
hahaha thanks....I was looking for a quick fix back then - yeah I heard of these guys they're supposidly very good. I just dish out the cash now.
  • #1,314
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:20am Jul 21, 2008 5:20am
Hi BRV,

The CHF looks ready to drop. Sell when it drops below 1.0220 level. Whta do you think guys?
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  • #1,315
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:34am Jul 21, 2008 5:34am
Hi BRV,

Here is a GBP long that looks interesting. Buy area 1.9936 to 1.9950.
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  • #1,316
  • Jul 21, 2008 5:35am Jul 21, 2008 5:35am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/JPY 170.00 area

If this near term high gets broken this area in general has proven to be a hard stomping ground on many occasions in the past; it will be difficult for price to get past this mark. Below is the chart from 1989-1993 (last time price got up that far), so you can see where I'm coming from. 170.00 is at the top of this range, and should be a hard line of resistance.
Hi everyone, just a heads up I have hard resistance up to 107.54 on this trade; equity markets have dictated a lot of price action recently and I wouldnt rule out a reach for that area. 107.00 should see a reaction regardless but in case of any nuttiness today just a heads up for the longer-term price move. Next good trade even higher is 171.18 - all areas approximate unfortunately dont have the time right now to pin it down.
  • #1,317
  • Edited 6:23am Jul 21, 2008 6:04am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi everyone, just a heads up I have hard resistance up to 107.54 on this trade; equity markets have dictated a lot of price action recently and I wouldnt rule out a reach for that area. 107.00 should see a reaction regardless but in case of any nuttiness today just a heads up for the longer-term price move. Next good trade even higher is 171.18 - all areas approximate unfortunately dont have the time right now to pin it down.
One other thing: USD/JPY had upside potential to 108.62 (broke through a significant line of resistance this morning). That pair is getting a lot more attention than EUR/USD lately for obvious reasons - you want to be on the lookout for that equity correlation.

Alot of people would advise against this but anytime you have deviation between USD/JPY and S&P futures you'll see them snap back together like a rubber band. Thats just the way it goes most of the time.

In terms of EUR/JPY this means the following: USD/JPY will dictate most of its moves, while EUR takes a back seat and consolidates. Regardless, EUR has been consolidated for a little while and aching for a breakout, and if the JPY move is up, it'll be down and other way around - so we just use caution and good judgement to tell us how to position in case of any heavy buying in the stock market.

One thing is clear that Wall Street is tired of losing money, and alot of buying/short covering last week pushed up the index rather strongly. Although downside risk is still very much apparrent, we usually get a sizable correction around these transitional points. There will be a lot of repositioning in the next few days so it could be very good for currency traders and playing these levels in general.....all comes together in the end.
  • #1,318
  • Jul 21, 2008 6:33am Jul 21, 2008 6:33am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Thanks, but needs to be posted before the trade occurrs, house rules .
Hey BRV.

Hope you had a good weekend! I kinda did pick that 1.9905 GU trade out back in post 1211 a day and a half before it hit, but I guess I'd only said I'd see it as 'showing quite a bit of promise'..... It was good for a max of 80 on the first bounce (at 1.9906) and went again today for a max of 70 so far on a second strike (at 1.9907).

Anyway, still looking at Gbp/Usd.........longer term I was looking waaaaaaaay down at the 1.9595-1.9584 area for a 'no brainer' if it made it that far....would anyone else agree with that? Good S/R historically and ties in with a 76.4.

Shorter term, on the way down, I'm thinking 1.9795-1.9780, and below that 1.9712-1.9696. To the upside, still looking at 2.0094-2.0106 for a potential short....

Good hunting this coming week everybody!
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  • #1,319
  • Jul 21, 2008 8:03am Jul 21, 2008 8:03am
Quoting SmokeyMcPip
Hi everyone,

I've been following this thread from the start, and feel like a bit of a freeloader for not contributing! I think this method is by far and away the best I've seen, and has firmly restored my faith in the possibility of making a regular income trading, as my entry levels have been gradually getting better with practice.....thank you BRV!!

Anyhow, thought I'd plunge in at the deep end and put a couple of charts up for gbp/usd and eur/usd:

Gbp/Usd: On a move down through 1.9957, I'd see the 1.9905-1.9896 area showing quite a bit of promise for a bounce as it ties in nicely with the 50% fibo of the last swing up on the 4hr chart. If it carries on up then looking to short off 2.0094-2.0106. 2.0106 would be 76.4 of the last 4hr run down which should make it pretty solid....I think.

Eur/Usd: On a move up I'd assume 1.5946 should be a good one to fade off again. And for a move down then either 1.5800-1.5791 again or below that 1.5760-1.5748 which I know has already been mentioned.

I'll leave it there for now anyway.....looking forward to hopefully getting more involved with this thread from now on!
does this mean we should sell at this instance
  • #1,320
  • Jul 21, 2008 8:08am Jul 21, 2008 8:08am
hey brv
do you think selling the EUR/USD at 1.5853 AND SETTING STOP LOSS AT 1.1.5905 is a good trade? cos the usd is strenghning against the eur
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