USD/JPY Discussion

Short ! Short!
.. oh no, maybe Long.. ohhh, I' don;t know what to do..

That chart reminds me of an acid trip back in 93.

"This is by far the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression,"

"This is a systemic financial crisis, there is no end to it,'' Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at New York University, told Bloomberg Television. "It's a vicious circle between a contracting economy and greater credit and financial losses feeding on the economy.''

Bloomberg TV Interview: Worst Financial Crisis Since the Great Depression and Worst U.S. Recession in Decades

down is direction for UJ

WhY?

Most of you have realized that USD, and the US economy has been DEEPLY in trouble, even though it was tentatively lifted from around 103.80 in the previous NY session as a result of oil price's plunge.

Take a look at the current TED spread.

The TED spread is the TED spread was the difference between the interest rate for the three month U.S. Treasuries contract and three month Eurodollars contract as represented by the London Inter Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and is a measure of liquidity and shows the degree to which banks are willing to lend money to one another.

The TED spread can be used as an indicator of credit risk. This is because U.S. T-bills are considered risk free while the LIBOR rate reflects the credit risk of lending to commercial banks. As the TED spread increases, the risk of default (also known as counterparty risk) is considered to be increasing, and investors will have a preference for safe investments. As the spread decreases, the risk of default is considered to be decreasing.

we can not see a confirmation for hammer.
i think we see a falsr hammer in this time

I'm sure that I'm not the first one to notice this, but why is it that price has a tendancy to use the 85 price level as a pivot point? It pulls price there often like a magnet.

yes
and also look in VIX

naminori
if we see U.S. T 10 YIELDS above 4.00 maybe we will see again above 105.xx sushi .but weekly close U.S. T 10 YIELDS was below 4.00 previous week

where can I view t graph? and more info on TED??

sonic

Ok. So, why is this oldtimer still posting here?

Trying to be humble or trying to convince he is good? Oldtimer's psychological strategy shouldn't have believers out there.

Why does this oldtimer always have to repeat he is a blah blah blah...?

Why does this oldtimer always contradict himself as can be seen again on his quote in red?

I remember reading a post from a trader that said it is the first time he has seen a fundamentalist scalper - referring to oldtimer. Isn't that what oldtimer's trades were- scalps? If oldtimer is so sure of his fundamentals, why scalp for 5 pips? So sure of U/J going to 100 but scalps for 5 pips. Hahahahahaha!

Sonic,

Here is the link.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuild...er1=.TEDSP:IND

105.xx sushi? Sushi?

Yes, it looks to me that this was another dead cat bounce on the way to 102.70-sushi or beyond.

I think that for now there an interesting support around 104,50..... what do you think?

Totally agree....we have possible failed hammer formed...

Hammer, needs a Bullish follow up candle to confirm that the trend reversal is taking place!

sonic

(P.S Sometimes follow up bullish candle appears after few insignificant candles)

WWW.SAXOBANK.COM

Market Comments
The USD found support yesterday on a raft of developments. US banking stocks saw an enormous rally yesterday, with the Financial Select SPDR ETF rallying more than 13% on two developments. First, the SEC has declared a 30-day ban on "abusive" naked short selling in 19 stocks in the financial sector, including, of course, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as a number of major financial institutions. While this is not a ban on short selling in general (normal short selling requires that shares are "borrowed" before they are shorted), it certainly is a sudden and intrusive presence in the market and requires that firms involved in short sales tread much more carefully and no doubt triggered some degree of generalized panic buying. A second drive for the buying was the Wells Fargo earnings announcement. The fifth largest US Bank and major mortgage lender, Wells Fargo handily beat earnings estimates and even raised its dividend 10%, a shocking development in an environment in which many are running around talking about mass insolvency this and systemic meltdown that. All markets will be watching further key bank earnings reports today, with Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan reporting, and tomorrow, with Citigroup's report on tap.
Also supportive of the USD, risk appetite (and therefore a stopper for the carry trade sell-off) yesterday was another deep sell-off in crude oil on large weekly US inventory builds in crude oil and the major refined products. Still, yesterday was the expiry day for August crude options and the front contract found support at the 55-day moving average, so the jury is still out on the trajectory of oil prices.
Yesterday, Bernanke delivered the same testimony to a House panel that he had delivered to a Senate committee the previous day. During the question and answer session, however, Bernanke was asked for the first time about whether intervention against the weak USD might be necessary. He answered the question very carefully, but did state that a disorderly market may justify intervention, even if intervention should be "rare". We must remind ourselves that USD intervention is a distinct possibility soon if the greenback is not able to find support in its own right and falls to new lows. In other Fed developments, the minutes of the latest FOMC minutes showed that some Fed officials favor a rate hike very soon. (Meanwhile, articles abound arguing that the Fed will end up cutting rates further by year end.) Despite all of the developments we've listed, the EuroZone/US rate differentials have hardly budged since the beginning of the month. The best plan may be to assume that this is a short squeeze and to look for good entries on a further rally in the carry crosses in the coming sessions.
Lost in the maelstrom of news was the US CPI, with the core reading at a higher than expected 0.3% on a MoM basis, and YoY headline inflation at 5.0% - the highest level in nearly 20 years...
Technical Impressions
Technically speaking the USD remains broadly weak, even if momentum is very low and we saw a couple of reversal formations in USD/JPY and USD/CHF yesterday and EURUSD is officially rangebound for now as long as it remains below its recent highs. In the bigger picture, USD bulls need to see EURUSD back below 1.5600, GBPUSD below 1.9700, AUDUSD below 0.9500, and USDCAD above 1.0300 again to gain any measure of longer term confidence that the bottom is in for the USD. We leave out USDJPY because we feel the JPY is a wildcard and its negative correlation with the USD could flip at some point.
For today only, the short term resistance level at 1.5865 looks like an important pivot point for EURUSD and 1.5800 looks like important support level. In GBPUSD, 1.9958 looks like an important short term support, with the 200-day moving average coming in this area and as it was previous high and then yesterday's low. USDJPY has a resistance zone at 105.30/50 (0.382 Fib retracement and Ichimoku cloud on daily respectively) followed by key 55-day moving average up at 105.75 area. EURJPY resistance comes in around 167.00 and first support below yesterday's 165.43 low comes in at the 165.19 55-day moving average and the major old high at 164.96.

seem like the hammer pattern gona get validated by the follow up bullish candle!!
106.4x region will be interesting!!!


sonic

closed my positions :s dammit!