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EURUSD

  • #15,021
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:45am Jul 17, 2008 4:45am
Can only see Eur going up ;] 2d round of beating for the buck ;]
simple....
  • #15,022
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:54am Jul 17, 2008 4:54am
Quoting Fulltime247
wonder if players are making pre-announce moves now - cheap oil should still be dipping the euro - no reason *we know about* to go up yet.

I'm waiting for the huge short dump that should start happening soon. Uptrend should be killing shorty stops.
EURUSD recovered some of its losses in overnight European trade after an article in Financial Times indicated that Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East were continuing to pare their dollar long exposure. Kenneth Shen, head of the strategic and private equity group at Qatar Investment Authority, noted that 'the outlook for the US dollar is a significant issue for investors contemplating US-related investments.'
More troubling was the suggestion in the article that China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. Chinese have been key buyers of dollar denominated fixed income instruments including bonds from the Fannie and Freddie Mac. Should their appetite for US securities suddenly wane, the greenback could see further selling as fears over financing of US Current Account deficit will resurface once again.
  • #15,023
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:55am Jul 17, 2008 4:55am
Thnx Tam! - WOW!! sounds like doomsday for the dollar coming fast! - everyone knows that if it keeps sinking other countries have no choice but to dump it. - wonder if thats just more grumbling or action.

had to share this - have been looking forever for a world clock website - this one allows you to setup a custom timezone page. add whatever cities you want - web version looks better than java applet version.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/personal.html
  • #15,024
  • Jul 17, 2008 4:58am Jul 17, 2008 4:58am
Quoting jeremiasgordillo
I think we could be in the lowest level of the week. Now, at 1.5849 is a good long entry point with stop loss in 1.5800.
Move stop loss to 1,5850. We have entered good.
  • #15,025
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:04am Jul 17, 2008 5:04am
Quoting jeremiasgordillo
Move stop loss to 1,5850. We have entered good.
however, i still prefer EU to go down.
  • #15,026
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:07am Jul 17, 2008 5:07am
Quoting Pyramus
however, i still prefer EU to go down.
Be carefull with this position. Today forex options with strike price at 1.60 has increase them price. We could see a super rally today.
  • #15,027
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:09am Jul 17, 2008 5:09am
Quoting Pyramus
however, i still prefer EU to go down.
Yeah I think so too, I'm short at 5875 or so , looking down
  • #15,028
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:18am Jul 17, 2008 5:18am
European markets rise as oil prices drop - European commentary

Hmmmm how about u adzreenyp...what u think ?
Ganbatte
  • #15,029
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:26am Jul 17, 2008 5:26am
My view on things.

Looking at the daily chart -
This week, price has breeched the April high but failed to close above. My macd is suggesting that this run up has been with less momentum and therefore negative macd divergence may come into play (yet to be confirmed). This is not helpful in regards to picking a direction. Also higher targets have not been met.

Looking at the 4 hr chart -
There does look like a H&S pattern, created this week, and we did break the neckline yesterday ( target area 1.5700 and weekly S1 pivot, nice combination ). We are testing the neckline as I'm writing this. I am concerned that the run down from the high is just a 3 wave retracement (no am not an EW person) and this may not be a H&S pattern.

Waiting for confirmation of direction before taking any action on smaller time frames.
  • #15,030
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:29am Jul 17, 2008 5:29am
ahhhhhhh i cant go long or short right now ....im not getting anything...miss my chance to go long at 1.5850 ........... oh well i guess i can only play the waiting game ...for now..
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #15,031
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:30am Jul 17, 2008 5:30am
Quoting tamster
EURUSD recovered some of its losses in overnight European trade after an article in Financial Times indicated that Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East were continuing to pare their dollar long exposure. Kenneth Shen, head of the strategic and private equity group at Qatar Investment Authority, noted that 'the outlook for the US dollar is a significant issue for investors contemplating US-related investments.'
More troubling was the suggestion in the article that China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. Chinese have been key buyers of dollar denominated fixed income instruments including bonds from the Fannie and Freddie Mac. Should their appetite for US securities suddenly wane, the greenback could see further selling as fears over financing of US Current Account deficit will resurface once again.

Specifically for this reason EURUSD will go down (atleast in short term)....becasue FEDs are not going to watch this happening quitely. They have much to loose so interference will happen. My 2 cents...
  • #15,032
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:38am Jul 17, 2008 5:38am
Oil just dropped another 1$.....looking at oil...strong correctional move over the last days, actually not seen a drop this large since 2005 in such a short period...this strengthens my opinion that EUR can not sustain 1.58+ much longer...oil drop will boost the USD

Just my 2 cents...
  • #15,033
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:42am Jul 17, 2008 5:42am
Quoting Shadowfx
Oil just dropped another 1$.....looking at oil...strong correctional move over the last days, actually not seen a drop this large since 2005 in such a short period...this strengthens my opinion that EUR can not sustain 1.58+ much longer...oil drop will boost the USD

Just my 2 cents...
and

Back in Europe, final data from the Eurostat showed that consumer price annual inflation in the 15-nation economy shot up to a new record of 4% in June, up from the previous record of 3.7% in May. Inflation reached the highest level since the euro was introduced in 1999 and the highest since June 1992. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.4%.

Might agree with that...just stay on focus..
Ganbatte
  • #15,034
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:45am Jul 17, 2008 5:45am
If you wondering about the sudden drop just now:

"JP Morgan posts better than expected 2Q results. EUR/USD trades down to 1.5845 from around 1.5875 while GBP/USD drops 30 ticks to 2.0015"
  • #15,035
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:50am Jul 17, 2008 5:50am
Quoting Shadowfx
If you wondering about the sudden drop just now:

"JP Morgan posts better than expected 2Q results. EUR/USD trades down to 1.5845 from around 1.5875 while GBP/USD drops 30 ticks to 2.0015"
Also, the 100 and 55 HR SMA is around 5880, that could explain it too
  • #15,036
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:52am Jul 17, 2008 5:52am
I was.... was hoping 40+ pips wasn't for $1 drop in Oil.
  • #15,037
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:55am Jul 17, 2008 5:55am
Watching Oil sharply now, if it breaks Daily LTL at 132.5$ it has a potential to fall towards at least 125$...which could be the start of a trend reversal..
  • #15,038
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:57am Jul 17, 2008 5:57am
Quoting shajib
Euro will reach daily pivot near 1.5860. A much better selling price would be near falling channel resistance (blue line). Next significant support (red line) is rising channel support found near 1.5750. You will also notice a falling wedge on the hourly chart which indicates a possible resumption of the uptrend once the correction is over.

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/6...sd1huz0.th.jpg



P.S. pls excuse the image quality

i'm still in agree with this point of view.. trying to go long @ 1.575's at best
Attached Image
... /$ -> LONG
  • #15,039
  • Jul 17, 2008 5:57am Jul 17, 2008 5:57am
Quoting Shadowfx
Watching Oil sharply now, if it breaks Daily LTL at 132.5$ it has a potential to fall towards at least 125$...which could be the start of a trend reversal..
nice
  • #15,040
  • Jul 17, 2008 6:03am Jul 17, 2008 6:03am
Some very simple logic...there is one thing the world currently agrees about...we want lower prices for petrol, read lower oil prices...the fact that the USD benefits via the peg from it...is a nice coincidence for Bernanke & Co....to get out of the current slump....
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