Daily Cable Analysis

B

But i think eur and gbp down tomorrow.
Becuase of today gained enough.

D) I flunked out of school picking A through C. LOL

Definately B i think they will want to see how last increase sinked in plus they like to change the rates with quarterly inflation report. GBP should head south tomorrow cause its getting a bit of frost bite

Tight range indicates to me that traders are not sure about what will happen tomorrow because of the surprise hike last time so if no rate hike then south it is .

The bears have woke up

D.) 4.75
And cable will hit below 1.9000 this month.

B

All Eyes on ECB

ECB rate decision and press conference will be the main event today. Once again, the focus will be on the press conference as ECB is widely expected to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 3.5%. Money supply, M3, has been stubbornly growing strongly, accelerating to a 15 year high of 9.7% yoy rate in Dec. Hence, the ECB is still widely expected to have at least one more hike in first quarter. Therefore, we should hear "vigilance" from Trichet to signal a March hike. But this should be priced in by the market already. The main risk will be on Trichet's wordings about inflation. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) slowed its annual growth rate to below 2% over three months from last Oct and hold there till Dec. Since the ECB explicitly targets 2% inflation, a steadily below target HICP gives ECB the reason to pause. And should Trichet sound dovish on inflation, market expectation will quickly shift to price out further hike beyond March and gives much pressure to the Euro.

BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% today. There were brief expectation of another rate hike from BoE in Feb after the Jan's surprise raise. Such expectation has significantly scaled back after BoE minutes which revealed a much tighter than expected vote of 5-4 instead of 7-2. The Jan hike was generally viewed as only a Feb hike pulled ahead instead of the start of a series of hike. Hence,the BoE announcement will likely be a non-event today.

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I show on my chart the pound going down to about 1.9617. It should bounce off that to at least 1.9667.

I am still getting STRONG SHORT signals but of course these could be "false" since the BOE interest rate announcement is coming out at 7 AM EST. We shall see. If no hike, it should be safe to SHORT at least to the 1.9627 level. We shall see..........

If no hike I would guess it could go down fast. Everything points at that direction.

What a nice down day for g/u

100pips in less than 1 hour

hi all
I need your opinion
I went short yesterday and close my posetion with profit @ 1.9607
now I see it's gona be retrace from 1.9581
are any one agree with me

Don't count on me but I see it going at 9550 at least...

Yeah even if not today, by tomolo it will

Euro is growing to the sky, Trichet sucks

Don't rush

Long term daily trendline was touched down here around current low 1.9567

If there is a break and close below might then look for a move to low of the year @ 1.9260

in my chart the line is @ ~9555 - and we are fighting there now!

Where's the retracement? It's been like 200 pips! Dang I wish I wouldn't have let go of that 9700 short too soon! Like they say let your PROFITS RUN!

have we reached the low? or how far can it sink? - the news was not that bad, everyone knew there would be no hike

well I had a long order triggered @ 9555, so hopefully it's retrace now...

Subwave 1 of wave 3 or C down is finally done. What a nice ride. Hope this time is the correct one lol.