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  • #14,201
  • Edited 5:01am Jul 12, 2008 5:00am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting PandoraBox
Just little information for you. Europen bank would not allow EU blow up above 1.6 BECAUSE if EU blow up above 1.6, european product will become more expensive then US product. When their product become more expensive...who want to buy??? and if their business turn down ...the second impact is the bank who give the soft loan, major loan to the manufacturer, business man and traders.

Just info not reco.

But anything can happen.
I do not know nothing,
but looking from the EU perspestive (Poland - newbee in EU) I can notice that everyday more people are buying US products or products from US.
Look at the cars for instance, the TOYOTA dealers have cut the prices by 15% last week here in Poland.
Look at the real estate - selling a 80 sqm flat in Cracow (southern Poland) one can aford to buy a house in US.
Electronics are much cheaper than in EU.

Last data on trade balance show that US becomes a very interesting market. It of course needs time and this will not be next week, but so strong euro will improove US economy.

Polish currency (zloty) last week - for the first time in history - had been exchanged at one of polish airports for tourists for more than 50 cents.

Poland is rather a small market, rather new on the EU stage.
But if the things continue like this the production of anything here will be much more expensive than in the US.

Good luck everybody!
-from Cracow (Poland).

(As a newbee - I know that I should not, but I am short)
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #14,202
  • Jul 12, 2008 5:19am Jul 12, 2008 5:19am
These 2 companies hold 3 Trillion in Mortgage loans and are now in financial difficulties and the US government is not obliged to bail them out. However, if they do, it will cost over a trillion dollars. This is an extremely serious financial crisis for the US. and there is no certainty yet on the Govt. bailing them out. Plus another bank is now in trouble.

Not surprising the Euro is on a bull run.
  • #14,203
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:06am Jul 12, 2008 8:06am
Quoting dragoncat
I've seen this argument since euro was down at 1.26ish about 1.3, but the problem is the US$ weakness, that no bullshit talk from the central banks can do anything about it

At that time oil price still below $50 per barrel...but now...it reach to $ 144 per barrel. Now totally different issues. European industry depending on oil. What ever happen we are connected. It is like domino effect.

regards
Pandora
  • #14,204
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:10am Jul 12, 2008 8:10am
The latest news Friday at 8 pm says that the second largest bank failure just occured involving IndyMac bank. Could this push EURUSD upwards sunday?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ie4&refer=home
  • #14,205
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:23am Jul 12, 2008 8:23am
Quoting PandoraBox
Just little information for you. Europen bank would not allow EU blow up above 1.6 BECAUSE if EU blow up above 1.6, european product will become more expensive then US product. When their product become more expensive...who want to buy??? and if their business turn down ...the second impact is the bank who give the soft loan, major loan to the manufacturer, business man and traders.

Just info not reco.

But anything can happen.
As long as the US has monetary policy that weakens the value of the dollar
it does'nt matter how much the Euro zone wants a strong dollar. They can
fight the fundamentals for only so long. Until the US changes their policy,
the dollar will continue to decline.
  • #14,206
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:27am Jul 12, 2008 8:27am
Quoting dragoncat
looking at the daily and weekly charts, it's bloody incredibly bullish, it's so bullish that it's SCARY!!!

I will sell you all the euro you want next week. How much do you want to buy?
  • #14,207
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:29am Jul 12, 2008 8:29am
Hey guys,

dont you think once we brake the 1.6000 level there is going to be a really towards like 1.6900, as the short term fundamentals look really weak, and technically the euro dollar is really momentum driven!
What do you guys think?

regards
Paul
  • #14,208
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:44am Jul 12, 2008 8:44am
Quoting pokpok
Hey guys,

dont you think once we brake the 1.6000 level there is going to be a really towards like 1.6900, as the short term fundamentals look really weak, and technically the euro dollar is really momentum driven!
What do you guys think?

regards
Paul

It's difficult to make predictions, but you can make a projection by taking a
look at the technicals. A-B leg = C-D leg typically depending on the strength of the move it can be more or less. A-B leg was 1500 pips so we may see 1.6700. Nothing is 100% in the markets but if you pay attention to price
action it will give you clues. For example in the last run up in Feb. around
1.5900 it formed a 1-2-3 top and then validated it by breaking to the down
side.
  • #14,209
  • Jul 12, 2008 8:59am Jul 12, 2008 8:59am
it's got to make a new high above 1.5946 quickly on Monday to show that it's got plenty of momentum to continue rising, otherwise we may see 1.5800 retested very soon if the bulls let go...
  • #14,210
  • Jul 12, 2008 9:22am Jul 12, 2008 9:22am
hey again,

well let me tell you it this way, the short term dont matter, soon or later the short term will get killed away by the long term.
Thus when we look at the big picture, the credit crisis is just getting started with indymac on friday, they are into some deep trouble, real trouble. Furthermore the dollar has more trouble to come, once all the countries loose up their currency peg, the dollar has a real problem, and I believe Bernanke and Paulson cant do much about. Once we reach over the 1.6000 barrier the real long term momentum players will start buying. So my outlook is very bullish on the eurodollar, maybe 1.65, maybe even 1.69. Lets see what happeneds on monday.

regards

Paul
  • #14,211
  • Jul 12, 2008 9:33am Jul 12, 2008 9:33am
Quoting Russell
It's difficult to make predictions, but you can make a projection by taking a
look at the technicals. A-B leg = C-D leg typically depending on the strength of the move it can be more or less. A-B leg was 1500 pips so we may see 1.6700. Nothing is 100% in the markets but if you pay attention to price
action it will give you clues. For example in the last run up in Feb. around
1.5900 it formed a 1-2-3 top and then validated it by breaking to the down
side.
Hey Russel,

So true... predicitions are very diffcult. I am a big fan of systematic trading, thus i never managed to compile the elliot stuff into a simple logic/system. My system says, buy at a level of 1.6000 with a tight stop, 0.5% with this volatility, so once we reach that level we have to follow up. However if it works out well it might be luck, we ll never know...
  • #14,212
  • Jul 12, 2008 9:44am Jul 12, 2008 9:44am
Based on a system I use the euro is at a extreme. I lean to lower prices on Monday and Tuesday Australia time.

but until there is signal no plays to make. have seen these thrusts before would not surprise me if it made a new high on Monday then starts to sell down. Looking at 15790-70 if the selling comes in.

A lot of the usd weakness is crude related, IMO. Crude is heavily over bought right now.

I am looking to sell.

Good trading.
  • #14,213
  • Jul 12, 2008 9:49am Jul 12, 2008 9:49am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Based on a system I use the euro is at a extreme. I lean to lower prices on Monday and Tuesday Australia time.

but until there is signal no plays to make. have seen these thrusts before would not surprise me if it made a new high on Monday then starts to sell down. Looking at 15790-70 if the selling comes in.

A lot of the usd weakness is crude related, IMO. Crude is heavily over bought right now.

I am looking to sell.

Good trading.

You may be right. I would like to see it come back and test the weekly trendline at 1.5460 or so. It would'nt hurt my feelings to get some better entry's. I'm still looking for a break of 1.6000 though. The market doesn't
often give one opportunity to make a years wages in a month or two
of price action.
  • #14,214
  • Jul 12, 2008 11:36am Jul 12, 2008 11:36am
the EUROUSD is currently at 1.5911 http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
  • #14,215
  • Jul 12, 2008 11:55am Jul 12, 2008 11:55am
Quoting mikegonzalez
the EUROUSD is currently at 1.5911 http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
I've seen far worse week end gaps. I'll live with that since my crystal ball is telling me that it's still going up.

It's well within the breathing space I gave my trade
Not all sins are created equal
  • #14,216
  • Jul 12, 2008 12:30pm Jul 12, 2008 12:30pm
i think it will drop to 1.58 before going up
  • #14,217
  • Jul 12, 2008 12:39pm Jul 12, 2008 12:39pm
Thinking doesnt help sometimes
  • #14,218
  • Jul 12, 2008 12:45pm Jul 12, 2008 12:45pm
right now it's at 1.5911 so it will drop to around to 1.5860
  • #14,219
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:09pm Jul 12, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting mikegonzalez
the EUROUSD is currently at 1.5911 http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-quotes.htm
From the link....

These quotes are provided for informational purposes and are not necessarily similar to GCI's dealing prices.

A few questions...
Does this broker "Close" over the weekend?
Does this broker let you know the price if the market moves after "Close" or before it "Opens", say at 11:00 AM CDT?

My broker doesn't close over the weekend and current pricing for E$ is 1.59324/1.59424. If I want to pay the 10 pip spread I can enter an order right now. Brokers close, the forex market never closes. It just rarely moves over the weekend.
  • #14,220
  • Jul 12, 2008 1:14pm Jul 12, 2008 1:14pm
Yes, i know FOREX never close banks are always trading currencies. But that shows the current rates from the banks.

Quoting Fx_Genius
From the link....

These quotes are provided for informational purposes and are not necessarily similar to GCI's dealing prices.

A few questions...
Does this broker "Close" over the weekend?
Does this broker let you know the price if the market moves after "Close" or before it "Opens", say at 11:00 AM CDT?

My broker doesn't close over the weekend and current pricing for E$ is 1.59324/1.59424. If I want to pay the 10 pip spread I can enter an order right now. Brokers close, the forex market never closes. It just rarely moves over the weekend.
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