USD/JPY Discussion

Can't be that bad???


sonic

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080714.html

Some of the financials reporting next week: I hate to be all doom and gloom...but the possibility is there for there to be a drop in the USD/JPY

M&T Bank Corporation
Macatawa Bank Corporation
Northern Financial
PacWest Bancorp


Just to name a few

Thats next week.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/stati...ve_USD_JPY.png

Look at all those longs through 108.

I looked at some of those charts, they are good info, does the posted time on the chart change? How often do they update them?

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TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Dollar/yen options declined in Tokyo on Friday as players were unwilling to buy protection before the weekend since the greenback has remained in its recent tight range around Y107.00.

But options dealers warned there is a risk that volatilities may spike suddenly if the dollar starts to fall. Some spot dealers said it may target Y105 next week.
"Options players, in short, don't want to take any aggressive actions - either selling or buying - now since the dollar's movements are very eerie recently," said an options dealer at a major Japanese bank.
He and other senior options dealers said the greenback has been "mysteriously" solid against the yen despite many dollar-selling factors.
"Such factors include high oil prices, which jumped overnight again, renewed concerns over the credit crunch ahead of U.S. bank earnings releases next week, and geopolitical risks triggered by Iran's missile tests," said a spot dealer who also watches the options market.
Many options dealers said the dollar will decline very soon, so they are ready to buy hedges against the U.S. unit's downside risks.
"But the dollar hasn't (declined) yet, so we'd like to make sure it actually happens so that we can avoid unnecessary losses," the options dealer said.
Meanwhile, dollar/yen implied volatility for three-month options, which Japanese exporters and importers often buy as a hedge against sharp exchange rate movements, also fell a tad to 10.3%/10.6% from 10.3%/10.7% in Tokyo on Thursday. "So watch out for the dollar's movements in the spot (market) for the outlook on options' volatilities," the options dealer said.

bristol, there is a school of thought that looks at certain numbers as very powerful. #1 is probably any xxx.00 level often called the "number" or the "figure". Firstboss mentioned some pair specific levels earlier, and they actually do vary some by pair. For instance, your stop of 168.96 was 4 pips below the 169.00 level. While price may very well "turn" around that number, savvy traders and institutions know that there's a boatload of short order stops just on the other side by X number of pips.

Your stop at xx.96 was simply a stop waiting to be hit imo, either becuz price will frequently test that xx.00 number first anyway or more likely, in a big short move, it'll often spike up by 10-30 pips or more above it and clear the orders off before dropping bigtime, fewer people left in the game to pay off... Longs do the opposite, by clearing the books below the number, or some other pivotal level. This same principle can be applied to certain pivots and fib levels as well.

So it's not as simple as just moving your stop higher by x amount. You also have to size your order according to how far above that magic 00 number you can afford. That's called money management (M/M) and is probably the #1 weakness of new live account traders especially. So I'm sure you already see the problem... I want big bucks and I want em now!!

I have a good handle on the problem, but for a handle on good answers, there are others on this and several other threads that have already ginned up some great resources for this topic. I'll try to find some links and get them to you. There was trader name of Que had a nifty M/M calulator he was tweaking, but I haven't heard from him in a couple weeks. I'll see if I can find him or his download link.

Here's a classic actual chart example of a stop clearing move at the institutional level on the Beast. The wick on the bottom of the daily candle is the 30m action on the 2nd chart. Check the price action leading up to and following this move. It's still vivid in my memory... (you don't want to know. )

As to what caused this move, here's my 2 pips... check the date. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-b...0080401a4.html

ak4x,

Thanks very much for that good explanation. (Check you PM)

Bristol

7/17 Merrill Lynch
7/18 Citigroup

These guys will be the main characters next week.

Going over 107 right now again.

UJ going where??

Got my target out at .21 Good day yall.

Data comes out in like 10 minutes and then 30 minutes after that. Not sure what effect it will have but could hover around 107.36.

Nice retrace back inside the Bollinger Band, scalped a quick short off M3.
Now I am long @ 107.13
Will add if it retraces to the daily PP

News message h3 { font-size:large; } p { font-size:medium; } (IGM)The broad [USD] received a slight boost up after a NY Times article hits the w...

The broad [USD] received a slight boost up after a NY Times article hits the wires, commenting that the Govt is now considering taking over one or both of the faltering US mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If the latter problems worsen, it also mentions considering a conservatorship, which would mean their mortgages are guaranteed by US tax payers.

Right now the price momentum has built for the move up.
However, Bollinger Band is holding the price. You can see how the band is opening up live on 20-min, 30-min, 1-hr.
I expect a ride till 107.41-42 (both weekly and daily R1)
Always allow 2-3 pips window below the target to lock in your profit.

Closed half long at midpoint (107.25), riding the rest till 107.39,
will add long on retrace if it happens.
Also, shorting at 107.419 for 10 pips

Slow night tonight

Clouds, don't get caught up on an exact number like 169.12. S/R is an area not an exact number. Notice how the eur/jpy just shot up to 169.30 and then dropped right back down. I wonder what was going on there. It'll most likely edge a bit higher before a bigger drop. My initial short target area is 169.50-170.

yeah, true i moved my sl. but you know i know this, that numbers aren't always exact, that s/r is not exact. just that many times you can buy or sell on an 'exact' number.

106.45 to 106.50 a lvl to watch!!

fib 38.2 % for me...

sonic

Just before the Frankfurt Open the Euro started to pull back, actrually dropping 23 pips. UJ did the same, pulling back 11 pips. Nett result for EJ was a 28 pip pull back to the 169 area -/ yesterdays high.

Up at dawn again, but no trades for me in these tight ranges - I think I'll make it an early Poets Day and go to sea........ http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif