you all check ur weekly/daily charts, will the USD ever return in its value to its highs as of 2001? I see many reasons why the USD can never take a long term reversal recovery. the best that could happpen is keeping those currencies in range and preventing itself from more depreciation.
1. It has too many currencies trying to push it down. u think of it, the USD is paired with too many major currencies. it has been agreed upon that market movement should move according to their economic releases/fundamentals from G7 meetings and dis has been the case except at few times when there are political/diplomatic interventions e.g war of words between trichet and bernanke 2-3 weeks ago. u now tell me how the USD fundamentals alone (a single nation) can keep countering the fundamentals of EUR(many nations together !), GBP, AUD, and NZD.this is just like a producer trying to outrun 4 major and many other minor producers.it should be threatning for the dollars that 70-75% of the euro's fundamentals alone dis year had been sound even as trichet would always confirm, talkless of including the fundametals of the others.It cannot be that easy standing when you are receiving pressure and punches from so many other sources ?
2. A rising trend in prices of commodities such as oil, gold, silver etc most times depreciates the dollar. u think of it, recently, increasing demands in oil bcos of reduced suply has led to skyroketing of oil price which inadvertently is affecting the dollar negatively and contributing to its woes. can the demand for this comodities be reduced on the longer term? i dont think so, Inasmuch as birth rate and human population keeps on the increase these commodities will always be in increasing demand ? therefore their prices will always have to rise on the longer term outlook and hence the dollar must always somehow be pressured to keep depreciating. If this be, what will be the hope for the dollars ? i see none except an intervention.bcos e.g oil will always get to 200dols per barrel ? is it not a matter of time ? fine it will not be a straight line up ? there will be so many ups and down in its journey to 200dols per barrel ? If only God would reduce the human population , den demand 4 dis comodities will plummet and d dollars can thank God. However, who tells that God likes money ? dollar ?
3.Bad and continuos release of fundamentals.The US presently is either at the middle or maybe tail end of a maybe minor recession or if its even major !. the economy is so bad, u imagine todays non farm payroll result, employers keep cutting jobs, unemployment still at highest level, unemployment claims even worse than expected.i tell people that the US will not recover from bad fundamentals so soon? they have been a bad fundamental releaser since 2001.
If at all there will be a long term recovery, it will involve an intervention from the G7 and that not once ! Besides, the rate hikes of 2009 if done 5x will not be strong enough.
1. It has too many currencies trying to push it down. u think of it, the USD is paired with too many major currencies. it has been agreed upon that market movement should move according to their economic releases/fundamentals from G7 meetings and dis has been the case except at few times when there are political/diplomatic interventions e.g war of words between trichet and bernanke 2-3 weeks ago. u now tell me how the USD fundamentals alone (a single nation) can keep countering the fundamentals of EUR(many nations together !), GBP, AUD, and NZD.this is just like a producer trying to outrun 4 major and many other minor producers.it should be threatning for the dollars that 70-75% of the euro's fundamentals alone dis year had been sound even as trichet would always confirm, talkless of including the fundametals of the others.It cannot be that easy standing when you are receiving pressure and punches from so many other sources ?
2. A rising trend in prices of commodities such as oil, gold, silver etc most times depreciates the dollar. u think of it, recently, increasing demands in oil bcos of reduced suply has led to skyroketing of oil price which inadvertently is affecting the dollar negatively and contributing to its woes. can the demand for this comodities be reduced on the longer term? i dont think so, Inasmuch as birth rate and human population keeps on the increase these commodities will always be in increasing demand ? therefore their prices will always have to rise on the longer term outlook and hence the dollar must always somehow be pressured to keep depreciating. If this be, what will be the hope for the dollars ? i see none except an intervention.bcos e.g oil will always get to 200dols per barrel ? is it not a matter of time ? fine it will not be a straight line up ? there will be so many ups and down in its journey to 200dols per barrel ? If only God would reduce the human population , den demand 4 dis comodities will plummet and d dollars can thank God. However, who tells that God likes money ? dollar ?
3.Bad and continuos release of fundamentals.The US presently is either at the middle or maybe tail end of a maybe minor recession or if its even major !. the economy is so bad, u imagine todays non farm payroll result, employers keep cutting jobs, unemployment still at highest level, unemployment claims even worse than expected.i tell people that the US will not recover from bad fundamentals so soon? they have been a bad fundamental releaser since 2001.
If at all there will be a long term recovery, it will involve an intervention from the G7 and that not once ! Besides, the rate hikes of 2009 if done 5x will not be strong enough.
know thy edge and abide by it ! 4 in it shall thou be successful !
