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  • #861
  • Jul 8, 2008 2:59am Jul 8, 2008 2:59am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+25 pips so far with execution at 106.42.

We got a drive down on price.......watching ticks on Reuters it was pretty clear that there was some order hunting going on at 106.25 to enhance interest of a move upwards, hence the shove.......fact is many times you dont know exactly where these orders are, but in a situation like this there are a lot of possibilities. Anyway, profit targets still the same, moving ahead.
Also I noticed that both weekly and monthly pivots were in a nice confluence at 106.21 so that should be a strong support.
  • #862
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:01am Jul 8, 2008 3:01am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+25 pips so far with execution at 106.42.

We got a drive down on price.......watching ticks on Reuters it was pretty clear that there was some order hunting going on at 106.25 to enhance interest of a move upwards, hence the shove.......fact is many times you dont know exactly where these orders are, but in a situation like this there are a lot of possibilities. Anyway, profit targets still the same, moving ahead.
Appreciate the updated commentary BRV. It helps me understand what I should be looking for. I have been making a terrible habit of finding the right direction of a trade, but leaving too early.
  • #863
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:15am Jul 8, 2008 3:15am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+25 pips so far with execution at 106.42. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...32&postcount=1

We got a drive down on price.......watching ticks on Reuters it was pretty clear that there was some order hunting going on at 106.25 to enhance interest of a move upwards, hence the shove.......fact is many times you dont know exactly where these orders are, but in a situation like this there are a lot of possibilities. Anyway, profit targets still the same, moving ahead.

Would you have moved your S/L to BE by now?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #864
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:19am Jul 8, 2008 3:19am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Would you have moved your S/L to BE by now?
At this point yes especially on a countertrend trade. If I got a worse entry I might give it a few pips of breathing room but only after taking partial profit.
  • #865
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:28am Jul 8, 2008 3:28am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Let's talk about managing this trade. We know the following:

a. Its countrend
b. Market behaving with strong USD selling pressure
c. JPY markets, however, also showing strong weakness

Looking at the chart, the first obstacle for us to break is 106.59.

The second is 106.71, then 106.93. You can expect, at all areas, some sort of selling pressure. Which will lead to trend continuation can be difficult to determine. The safer of the sells, if we were to take one, would be 106.71 or/and 106.93.

For stop losses, we have strong support at 106.19, so no need to get stopped out before then. A break of that level, however, and we're out of the trade.

But first we have to get there!

Thanks for your reply,

This is great stuff, and I am surely not the only one who is very grreatful to you for putting your knowledge and skill up here for us to learn.


When you say that 106.59 is the first obstacle to break, does that imply taking a partial profit? And if so how much of the position would you liquidate?
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #866
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:38am Jul 8, 2008 3:38am
Couple of thoughts/questions about going into today's open.

All the talk right now is markets expected to have a bearish day. At what point is the market sentiment clear for the day? That probably sounds like I'm looking for too precise of an answer. Just trying to know when you know what the feel for the day could be.

Also, Bernanke is speaking in an hour and a half. It seems the USD has tended towards a strong rally during his speeches. Is that something you plan for?
  • #867
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:45am Jul 8, 2008 3:45am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Thanks for your reply,

This is great stuff, and I am surely not the only one who is very grreatful to you for putting your knowledge and skill up here for us to learn.


When you say that 106.59 is the first obstacle to break, does that imply taking a partial profit? And if so how much of the position would you liquidate?
It would yes, and in a case like this I only took off a small amount; appx 1/5 of the entire position, due to my expectations on the move primarily, and the fact that I havent seen much of a move at that point anyway. By the next target I'll be out by half or more due to the countertrend nature and depending on how I like the price action at the time. Depending on how close the targets are together I'll base the amount of partial I take, but unfortunately I dont have an exact system for this; its rather discretionary.
  • #868
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:50am Jul 8, 2008 3:50am
Quoting finswin56
Couple of thoughts/questions about going into today's open.

All the talk right now is markets expected to have a bearish day. At what point is the market sentiment clear for the day? That probably sounds like I'm looking for too precise of an answer. Just trying to know when you know what the feel for the day could be.

Also, Bernanke is speaking in an hour and a half. It seems the USD has tended towards a strong rally during his speeches. Is that something you plan for?
In terms of sentiment I'm just following S&P futures. I think there will be a push up today before any falloff if there is one. As far as Bernanke goes, I just want to be sure I protect the position with a tight s/l and take some profits in the event I get blown out. Better safe than sorry. I trade for a living so I'm not into spinning the roulette wheel. For this trade Im in the money 20 something pips right now so atleast I have some kind of buffer; not the best, but some. Regardless, s/l to breakeven at the time of the speech. But best case scenario news will be positive and I make a good amount of money for the day.
  • #869
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:58am Jul 8, 2008 3:58am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
In terms of sentiment I'm just following S&P futures. I think there will be a push up today before any falloff if there is one. As far as Bernanke goes, I just want to be sure I protect the position with a tight s/l and take some profits in the event I get blown out. Better safe than sorry. I trade for a living so I'm not into spinning the roulette wheel. For this trade Im in the money 20 something pips right now so atleast I have some kind of buffer; not the best, but some. Regardless, s/l to breakeven at the time of the speech. But best case scenario news will be positive and I make a good amount of money for the day.
Thanks!

EDIT: lol, when BRV talks, the market moves. USD/JPY rockets up on BRV's talk of an initial push
  • #870
  • Jul 8, 2008 4:24am Jul 8, 2008 4:24am
Congrats, it just hit the 106.91 !

That was an awesome insight into how to enter and manage a trade Billy Ray.

There are a lot of wafflers out there who claim to know the score but very few will put their mouth where their money is.

You are the man
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #871
  • Edited 6:22am Jul 8, 2008 5:20am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 106.46 - 106.36

106.42 is the foothold on this one. Hopefully you can see from the chart and based on past posts why I'm going for this. Careful of the US Equity markets on this one though, make sure they're not too overheated after today.

Also keep in mind this is a countertrend trade - expecting a scalp or so off of it.
+80 pips so far. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429

Hit the major targets but still holding onto a little piece in case of a run. Markets rattled a little bit just now and looking for direction. News out at 10 after the speech.
  • #872
  • Jul 8, 2008 5:35am Jul 8, 2008 5:35am
tanx 4 dis tread, we can say we are the sharks now, due to your marvelous insight,pls do u hAVE A commentary of bernake speech, it wud be of great assistance
  • #873
  • Jul 8, 2008 5:42am Jul 8, 2008 5:42am
Quoting pastork
tanx 4 dis tread, we can say we are the sharks now, due to your marvelous insight,pls do u hAVE A commentary of bernake speech, it wud be of great assistance
eeeennnndddless analysis on www.bloomberg.com/news/economy
  • #874
  • Jul 8, 2008 6:56am Jul 8, 2008 6:56am
Could it be that one might go long AUDUSd from these .9500 levels? ----Looks like good support on the 240" with a 50% Fib retracement from the 6/12 low to the 6/30 high?

Lenxoer
  • #875
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:36am Jul 8, 2008 8:36am
Gi day there to everyone. I have been trading with fibs, which are basically support & resistence, but with little success. have been observing Billyrayvalentines posts with interest. How do you base your trades? I notice support & resistence lines & is it also 50% fib bounce? If this is correct what time frames do you use to observe & then enter trades. I am going to follow this thread from now on so if you could just advise me of the basics I would appreciate it.
  • #876
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:40am Jul 8, 2008 8:40am
Quoting Hensby
Gi day there to everyone. I have been trading with fibs, which are basically support & resistence, but with little success. have been observing Billyrayvalentines posts with interest. How do you base your trades? I notice support & resistence lines & is it also 50% fib bounce? If this is correct what time frames do you use to observe & then enter trades. I am going to follow this thread from now on so if you could just advise me of the basics I would appreciate it.
I would suggest doing a search of this thread on BRV's posts. There's too much good information to sum up in one or two posts. Cliff's notes start around page 52 though.
  • #877
  • Jul 8, 2008 8:45am Jul 8, 2008 8:45am
Quoting finswin56
I would suggest doing a search of this thread on BRV's posts. There's too much good information to sum up in one or two posts. Cliff's notes start around page 52 though.

Thanks for that, I started reading at the start but got to about page 30, & thought I would ask. So I will go back to page 52.
  • #878
  • Jul 8, 2008 10:14am Jul 8, 2008 10:14am
I was wondering if the results posted in thread 1 for the "max pips" was the value that the trade was exited at? or if those trades with "max pips" > 250 were the trades that were stopped out at -40?

thanks in advance
  • #879
  • Jul 8, 2008 10:19am Jul 8, 2008 10:19am
Quoting rogerdoger
I was wondering if the results posted in thread 1 for the "max pips" was the value that the trade was exited at? or if those trades with "max pips" > 250 were the trades that were stopped out at -40?

thanks in advance
I don't think so. None of the max draw downs were near the -40 mark.
  • #880
  • Jul 8, 2008 10:21am Jul 8, 2008 10:21am
Quoting finswin56
I don't think so. None of the max draw downs were near the -40 mark.
so those trades were exited at the max pip level then?
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