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  • #841
  • Jul 7, 2008 9:15pm Jul 7, 2008 9:15pm
Hi,

I have an order to buy euro @ 15683. Anyone thinking with anouncements coming out today that this is'nt the best time to trade. i'm affraid I tend to trade just with the chart, fundies are something I'm still trying to learn about.
  • #842
  • Jul 7, 2008 11:50pm Jul 7, 2008 11:50pm
Quoting Siam
Hi,

I have an order to buy euro @ 15683. Anyone thinking with anouncements coming out today that this is'nt the best time to trade. i'm affraid I tend to trade just with the chart, fundies are something I'm still trying to learn about.
You got filled on this right? Or you're waiting now?
  • #843
  • Jul 8, 2008 12:35am Jul 8, 2008 12:35am
When Billy Ray gets bored he gets organized. So I went through the thread and updated the first post of this thread to include all the trades that got hit and the max pips and a bunch of other stuff. Make sure you read the notes.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429

Just trying to drive in the nail behind our strategy here, especially for newer traders looking for the holy grail and swimming in indicator confusion.
  • #844
  • Edited 12:37am Jul 8, 2008 12:35am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
You got filled on this right? Or you're waiting now?
Yep got filled and closed the trade already @ 1.5710. Not much to write home about but like I say not sure how the markets are going to move with Bernie speaking later on.

Cheers.
  • #845
  • Jul 8, 2008 12:37am Jul 8, 2008 12:37am
Quoting Siam
Yep got filled and closed the trade already @ 1.5710. Not much to write home about but like I say not sure how the markets are going to move with Bernie speaking later on.

Cheers.
Good stuff - you made money. Thats all that counts.
  • #846
  • Jul 8, 2008 12:58am Jul 8, 2008 12:58am
Dear Billy Ray,

You mentioned Citi bank as having the best FX research. How does one access that for free?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #847
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:15am Jul 8, 2008 1:15am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Billy Ray,

You mentioned Citi bank as having the best FX research. How does one access that for free?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
Hi Lenoxer, Unfortunately you have to have an account with them - institutional or otherwise.
  • #848
  • Edited 2:51am Jul 8, 2008 1:28am | Edited 2:51am
Long USD/JPY 106.46 - 106.36

106.42 is the foothold on this one. Hopefully you can see from the chart and based on past posts why I'm going for this. Careful of the US Equity markets on this one though, make sure they're not too overheated after today.

Also keep in mind this is a countertrend trade - expecting a scalp or so off of it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #849
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:34am Jul 8, 2008 1:34am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Lenoxer, Unfortunately you have to have an account with them - institutional or otherwise.
So I do have an account with citi. How do I do fx research with them? Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #850
  • Jul 8, 2008 2:21am Jul 8, 2008 2:21am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 106.46 - 106.36

106.42 is the foothold on this one. Hopefully you can see from the chart and based on past posts why I'm going for this. Careful of the US Equity markets on this one though, make sure they're not too overheated after today.
I'm looking closer and closer at R/S etc, and more than glad that I can see, what you can see
BTW why not 106.70?

And how about AUDUSD? 9492/9510
  • #851
  • Jul 8, 2008 2:49am Jul 8, 2008 2:49am
Quoting Kaligula
I'm looking closer and closer at R/S etc, and more than glad that I can see, what you can see
BTW why not 106.70?

And how about AUDUSD? 9492/9510
106.40 area is just simply stronger historicaly and safer in general due to the ret. Again in line with out general rules, though if there's a big retracement very close to it nix the trade.

Also, this is a countertrend trade; not expecting much in terms of continuation.

The AUD level you mentioned is actually a trade I posted a few pages back.
  • #852
  • Edited 3:28am Jul 8, 2008 3:01am | Edited 3:28am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 106.46 - 106.36

106.42 is the foothold on this one. Hopefully you can see from the chart and based on past posts why I'm going for this. Careful of the US Equity markets on this one though, make sure they're not too overheated after today.

Also keep in mind this is a countertrend trade - expecting a scalp or so off of it.
Market showing a lot of strength tonight against the dollar; just using some caution as I noted earlier in the original post.

Again its countertrend; looking for a scalp.

And while we're at it next mark down is 106.19 for buys; a clean break of this level should see that mark get some action. It'll depend how hungry the market is to ditch USD.
  • #853
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:15am Jul 8, 2008 3:15am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
You basically nailed all 3 of these turns....thats what I get for sleeping.

Duke & Duke can stuff those commissions: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EjdC0pjo1A
lol..looks like a good movie. I am going to download it today.
  • #854
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:32am Jul 8, 2008 3:32am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Market showing a lot of strength tonight against the dollar; just using some caution as I noted earlier in the original post.

Again its countertrend; looking for a scalp.

And while we're at it next mark down is 106.19 for buys; a clean break of this level should see that mark get some action. It'll depend how hungry the market is to ditch USD.
In a trade like this, how do you gauge whether it's a trade you want to continue in?
It hit the level and immediately paused, retracing a few pips, but now is falling a bit further.
Are you looking at the next Fib level to see if that holds?
  • #855
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:34am Jul 8, 2008 3:34am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Market showing a lot of strength tonight against the dollar; just using some caution as I noted earlier in the original post.

Again its countertrend; looking for a scalp.

And while we're at it next mark down is 106.19 for buys; a clean break of this level should see that mark get some action. It'll depend how hungry the market is to ditch USD.
Looks like we're getting a push here but hanging in, especially with all of the multiple levels in this area; Japan's Nikkei 225 is down 2.45% for the day so that much is in our favor. The JPY strength yesterday actually might have had a hand in that as some of the biggest losers for the day are Japanese export stocks, so it goes both ways. But the bigger hands, financials and commodities, are the ones leading the losses and those are the ones we want to hear about in regards to this move.
  • #856
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:47am Jul 8, 2008 3:47am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/JPY 106.46 - 106.36

106.42 is the foothold on this one. Hopefully you can see from the chart and based on past posts why I'm going for this. Careful of the US Equity markets on this one though, make sure they're not too overheated after today.

Also keep in mind this is a countertrend trade - expecting a scalp or so off of it.
Let's talk about managing this trade. We know the following:

a. Its countrend
b. Market behaving with strong USD selling pressure
c. JPY markets, however, also showing strong weakness

Looking at the chart, the first obstacle for us to break is 106.59.

The second is 106.71, then 106.93. You can expect, at all areas, some sort of selling pressure. Which will lead to trend continuation can be difficult to determine. The safer of the sells, if we were to take one, would be 106.71 or/and 106.93.

For stop losses, we have strong support at 106.19, so no need to get stopped out before then. A break of that level, however, and we're out of the trade.

But first we have to get there!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #857
  • Jul 8, 2008 3:52am Jul 8, 2008 3:52am
USD/JPY trade is a good risk/reward.
Strong support on 4HR T/L and 4HR 200 SMA (Blue line)
In for the ride.
Attached Image
  • #858
  • Jul 8, 2008 4:16am Jul 8, 2008 4:16am
May I ask if Citi research is good enough to merit opening an account with them? And, if so, can someone PM me with a sample of it?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
  • #859
  • Jul 8, 2008 4:42am Jul 8, 2008 4:42am
Quoting Lenoxer
May I ask if Citi research is good enough to merit opening an account with them? And, if so, can someone PM me with a sample of it?

Thanks,

Lenoxer
I mean I wouldnt recommend opening an account with anybody just for access to their research. Truthfully none of my trades are based off of anything I read from most of any of these guys because market conditions change constantly, not to mention many of them are just bad traders; they're educated to the point of fundamental and basic technical talk and investment banking jibber jab but when it comes to the nitty gritty and getting down and dirty they look in awe of portfolio managers, because they know many of them can't do it. Not to mention many of the PM's at these places fail as well. Pretty much everything you need is available for free, that's the good news . The only thing I still subscribe to is IBD for my equity stuff; they've paid for that that subscription many times over by now. Sent you a pm by the way.
  • #860
  • Jul 8, 2008 4:55am Jul 8, 2008 4:55am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Let's talk about managing this trade. We know the following:

a. Its countrend
b. Market behaving with strong USD selling pressure
c. JPY markets, however, also showing strong weakness

Looking at the chart, the first obstacle for us to break is 106.59.

The second is 106.71, then 106.93. You can expect, at all areas, some sort of selling pressure. Which will lead to trend continuation can be difficult to determine. The safer of the sells, if we were to take one, would be 106.71 or/and 106.93.

For stop losses, we have strong support at 106.19, so no need to get stopped out before then. A break of that level, however, and we're out of the trade.

But first we have to get there!
+25 pips so far with execution at 106.42. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...32&postcount=1

We got a drive down on price.......watching ticks on Reuters it was pretty clear that there was some order hunting going on at 106.25 to enhance interest of a move upwards, hence the shove.......fact is many times you dont know exactly where these orders are, but in a situation like this there are a lot of possibilities. Anyway, profit targets still the same, moving ahead.
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