USD/JPY Discussion

I wonder where everybody went...... Oh well, I hope a few got in as I did for the long haul....... My entry was at the 106.95......

i'm long usdjpy and short eurjpy.

I am not trading this pair right now, but you still forecast to 108?

Hi Dove,

Check your PM.

I have 4 monitors now, I'll send a pic after I get it set up..lol

Smiling - lets put it this way....... The monthly R1 is at the 108.55........ So, some time this month I would say yea........

hi bristolxyz
i've been trying to attach an image and send it through PM too.. how do i do that
thanks

I dont think it will work, email it to me....

Hey Mr .Dove,

I hate going against you because you are right much more than you are wrong.

So I have a question about entering against the pivot.

It seems to me that your entry of 106.95 is below the daily pivot of 107.19 that I've got. I thought that if the opening price (based on 5 PM EST) was below the pivot, then the direction of the entyr should be to the short side.

Am I wrong? Or is there something I'm missing here? Wrong pivot?

Appreciate the knowledge you're willing to share.

project for the month... get 2 more monitors
it's nice to have someone to follow in this business
tkia dove

Nope - that is not true...... Now what would stop me from making an entry would depend upon the location between the daily and the central pivot.... since today's central is only couple pips below the daily then it made no difference...... What got me in for the long is placement of the BB.... I have a stop at the 107.01 for a 3 pip profit and I will let it go and see what happens.


By the way, if I was paying attention I would had taken profit at the upper band at 107.20....... But I wasn't......

South Korean Won Advances on Speculation Government Is Buying

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won climbed to a two- week high on speculation the government is intervening to strengthen the currency after inflation accelerated to a decade- high.

The won notched up its biggest two-day gain in more than three months after President Lee Myung Bak yesterday sacked Vice Finance Minister Choi Joong Kyung, in charge of currency policy, after its 9.6 percent slide this year. The Ministry of Finance and Bank of Korea said they will use the country's $258 billion foreign-exchange reserves to support the won. "It seems that there was an intervention this morning,'' said Jung Chan Ho, a currency dealer in Seoul at Shinhan Bank, a unit of South Korea's second-biggest financial group. "The intervention could be $1 billion or more.'' Korea's currency advanced 1.1 percent to 1,032.1 against the dollar as of 10:47 a.m. in Seoul, from 1,043 yesterday, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The won has gained 1.8 percent in the past two days, the most since March 24-25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The government, which previously advocated a weaker won, has changed its stance as record oil prices push up import costs and widen the current-account deficit.

Lee said on July 6 he may lower his economic growth target for the next two years in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation in Seoul, according to a transcript posted on the Web site of presidential office yesterday.

Central banks intervene in currency markets by buying or selling foreign exchange. The financial authorities bought about $7 billion of won since the end of May to help boost the currency, JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported July 1.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p....AA&refer=home

I don't mind going against dove alliance cause i am still waiting for the 110 area he predicted a few weeks ago. bearish on this pair I am. will look for area to get short.

Yen Gains on Speculation U.S. Mortgage Industry Losses to Widen
By Stanley White and Kosuke Goto

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose against the euro on speculation widening U.S. mortgage industry losses will prompt investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with the Japanese currency.

The yen also advanced against the Australian and Canadian dollars after an index of commodity prices fell by the most in four months, reducing the appeal of currencies from countries that export raw materials. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said yesterday Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest U.S. mortgage financers, may have to raise $75 billion in capital. The South Korean won rose to a two-week high on speculation the government bought the currency.

"Risk reduction is causing yen-buying,'' said Masaki Fukui, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest publicly traded financial group. "News on the U.S. financial sector is raising an uncertain outlook for the markets.''

The yen gained to 168.20 against the euro at 10:35 a.m. in Tokyo from 168.55 late yesterday in New York. It stood at 107.07 per dollar from 107.18. The euro traded at $1.5715. The yen may rise to 103 per dollar by the end of September, Fukui said.

Japan's currency rose to 102.29 per Australian dollar from 102.52 and to 105.13 against the Canadian dollar from 105.39. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell 2.8 percent to 460.23, the biggest drop since March 19. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares weakened by 0.7 percent.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the borrowing and lending rate. Japan's benchmark rate of 0.5 percent compares with 4.25 percent in Europe, 7.25 percent in Australia and 3 percent in Canada.

Won Intervention

The won rose to 1,025.90 per dollar, the strongest since June 20. President Lee Myung Bak yesterday sacked Vice Finance Minister Choi Joong Kyung, in charge of currency policy, after the currency's 11 percent slide in the past year.

"The intervention could be $1 billion or more,'' said Jung Chan Ho, a currency dealer at Shinhan Bank in Seoul. Central banks intervene in currency markets by buying and selling foreign exchange.

The U.S. currency may decline for a third day against the euro before a National Association of Realtors housing report, due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Pending home resales probably fell 3 percent in May, the biggest decline since November, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Bad News

Citigroup, JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch & Co. report quarterly earnings next week. The world's biggest banks and securities firms have racked up almost $400 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market last year, according to Bloomberg data.

"There is likely to be much bad news coming in from the U.S. earning reports,'' said Joseph Kraft, head of capital markets in Tokyo at Dresdner Kleinwort, an investment bank owned by Germany's Allianz SE. "I expect this month to become dollar- selling, stock-selling and bond-buying markets.''

The dollar may fall to $1.5850 per euro this month, he said.

"The U.S. dollar is a sell,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. "When you look at the state of the U.S. economy, the conclusion is that the dollar is a weak currency.''

The dollar may decline to $1.5745 per euro and 106.60 yen today, Soma forecast.

The dollar weakened yesterday as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent, extending its plunge from an October record to more than 20 percent. Yields on two-year Treasury notes touched the lowest in a month.

Bush, G8

President George W. Bush said on July 6, the first day of his five-day trip to Japan for the Group of Eight summit, that the U.S. ``believes in a strong-dollar policy.'' Leaders from the G-8, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., are meeting in Hokkaido, Japan. Central bankers aren't attending the meeting.

The dollar fell 0.6 percent against the euro on June 16 after G-8 finance ministers, meeting without central bankers, stopped short of making a joint comment on currencies.

"It's a gamble to sell'' the dollar before the official communiqué from the meeting, said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, a unit of Canada's largest bank. "I would be surprised if we explicitly see a statement that supports the U.S. dollar. But there's a risk that that could happen.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...qGY&refer=home

I still say the 110 but show me where I gave a specific date or even a time table; what I did say, is that it eventually will get to the 110 and that is still on the table.

If anyone is running a fibo on the 20 chart from the daily high and low will notice that the 38.2% is acting as a support right now......

OK steelhead - I found the statement I made and here it is:

"The trend for this week had busted the 105.57 resistance that was set in the 1st week of May.... As of right now the upper trend is set at 110.00....... How long will it take to get there is your guess is good as mine...... But, it already moved 150 pips up since the opening of yesterday....."

HI Dove,
How are you? Could you please tell are you bullish or bearish for EU/JPY at current price 168.15 . Thank you very much

I've been short on this pair since the 45........It too is having problems getting past the Daily Pivot at the 09.......

Thank you dove

EJ pivots good to 5pm EST July 8