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Technical Analysis and a few charts to ponder

  • #181
  • Jan 29, 2007 5:54pm Jan 29, 2007 5:54pm
The chart below shows the trading range that the eur/usd has settled into so far for the month of January 2007. We have a week filled with key data ahead. A solid break of either of these levels could signal new market sentiment.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #182
  • Jan 29, 2007 5:58pm Jan 29, 2007 5:58pm
Quoting Leugimp
Here is a pic of weekly cable
Those are some extraordianary corrolations in the chart Leugimp. That is a great observation. I will be adding that line to my weekly chart as well. It is such an excellent illustration of the overall pound trend.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #183
  • Jan 29, 2007 6:28pm Jan 29, 2007 6:28pm
Of all 4 of the majors the pound has easily been the harriest this month. THis makes shorter term directional plays pretty tough. Many times we are left to "buy a break" and just control our risk which I personally find not very much fun.

Here is a potential technical setup for a GBP/USD buy. While the pound has been going down since the January 23rd, with all of the data this week, speculative buyers could come in.

Since we have seen the 50% fibo in the picture act as short term topside resistance a break of this could signal a buy. If we decide to take this play we will be looking for a short term target. If you notice in the picture we have 2 3/8's fibos falling in the exact same place. this could act as the target for this short term trade. This trade could be worth as much as 60 pips. I personally will be watching for a good close above 1.9620 to take this trade and probably will not hang with it long if it falls back below that level.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #184
  • Edited 7:07pm Jan 29, 2007 6:51pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting Leugimp
Here is a pic of weekly cable
here is that same chart zoomed out to show added touches to this line
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Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #185
  • Jan 29, 2007 7:21pm Jan 29, 2007 7:21pm
Awesome observation Leugimp!
  • #186
  • Jan 29, 2007 8:56pm Jan 29, 2007 8:56pm
I look at several of the Forex dollar cross pair in an ongoing effort to determine the dollar sentiment.
Sometime one pair such as the GBP/USD will have one technical look while another like the EUR/USD will imply another direction. Since it is known that typically those two pair move in the same general direction in relation to the USD, I like to see some good technical corrollation between the two before taking a position. The technicals tonight one theEUR/USD & GBP/USD have a couple technical factors that are in opposition. Eventually one of them will have to give and could be the final clue we need to establishing the direction.

Here are both Eur/Usd & Gbp/Usd with the aformentioned technical factors that we might use as triggers.

First the Eur/USD
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #187
  • Jan 29, 2007 9:00pm Jan 29, 2007 9:00pm
In the previous chart, we show a 4 hour trend line on the Euro that is resistance or a potential trigger for longs against the dollar.

Below is a Gbp/Usd chart that shows lower resistance for pound shorts against the dollar. While these show up specifically in their respective pair, they can be used as triggers for the also mentione pair as they both can represent the overall dolar sentiment.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #188
  • Jan 30, 2007 6:36am Jan 30, 2007 6:36am
Quoting FXopportunist
Of all 4 of the majors the pound has easily been the harriest this month. THis makes shorter term directional plays pretty tough. Many times we are left to "buy a break" and just control our risk which I personally find not very much fun.

Here is a potential technical setup for a GBP/USD buy. While the pound has been going down since the January 23rd, with all of the data this week, speculative buyers could come in.

Since we have seen the 50% fibo in the picture act as short term topside resistance a break of this could signal a buy. If we decide to take this play we will be looking for a short term target. If you notice in the picture we have 2 3/8's fibos falling in the exact same place. this could act as the target for this short term trade. This trade could be worth as much as 60 pips. I personally will be watching for a good close above 1.9620 to take this trade and probably will not hang with it long if it falls back below that level.
We had a very nice technical winner play out on our GBP/USD Fibo set up during the european session. This trade was worth around 60+ pips depending on where you entered. As we suspected it found strong resistance at the double fibo level or 1.9688 and has since nearly returned to the long trigger.

Here is the 1 hr GBP/USD chart illustrating how it played out.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #189
  • Jan 30, 2007 1:13pm Jan 30, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting FXopportunist
We had a very nice technical winner play out on our GBP/USD Fibo set up during the european session. This trade was worth around 60+ pips depending on where you entered. As we suspected it found strong resistance at the double fibo level or 1.9688 and has since nearly returned to the long trigger.

Here is the 1 hr GBP/USD chart illustrating how it played out.
Hey,

Are you able to show where your start and finish levels for your fib levels are. I can see where the 38.6% is taken from but not the others.

Many thanks

A
  • #190
  • Feb 6, 2007 8:56pm Feb 6, 2007 8:56pm
Here's a chart of the cable, its at the top of its channel, and the green horizontal line is a key resistance right now as well as the 5-day high. For the uptrend to continue, the price needs to breakout of the channel and sustain a break above the resistance. Although a retracement into the channel is more likely I think. Any thoughts?
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  • #191
  • Feb 6, 2007 9:07pm Feb 6, 2007 9:07pm
Looks like a triangle is forming on the 15 min chart..
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  • #192
  • Feb 6, 2007 9:19pm Feb 6, 2007 9:19pm
This range (155.72-156.18) seems to be a key level in this pair. If it breaks to the upside, this could resume the uptrend, as it has happened twice before.
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  • #193
  • Feb 7, 2007 3:13pm Feb 7, 2007 3:13pm
Here's a chart of eur/jpy. You can notice how the price reacts to the upper trendline resistance and that it is likely to retrace down. It looks like a downward wedge. For the upward trend to resume, the resistance needs to be broken first.
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  • #194
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:20am Feb 8, 2007 10:20am
Here is the same 4 har channel that was posted for the euro a couple weeks ago.
Today we heard Trichet say "strong vigilance". However at this point we have yet to show any new direction.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #195
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:26am Feb 8, 2007 10:26am
Just like the euro the suisse Franc is stuck in a 150 pip trading range also.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #196
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:30am Feb 8, 2007 10:30am
and there both driving me crazy
at least the chf gave me 51pips went long agin 1.2460 today
but I still long from 1.2398 looking for that 1.2550
  • #197
  • Feb 8, 2007 10:36am Feb 8, 2007 10:36am
Here is a chart of the pound for the same time period. Notice that the pound has a favortie trading range too but also often makes large breakouts only to return to its comfort range.
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #198
  • Feb 12, 2007 10:37am Feb 12, 2007 10:37am
Quoting turbokaos
and there both driving me crazy
at least the chf gave me 51pips went long agin 1.2460 today
but I still long from 1.2398 looking for that 1.2550
Looks like you got your target today turbo
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #199
  • Feb 12, 2007 12:31pm Feb 12, 2007 12:31pm
FXO, I'm enjoyin' your posts. Learning some different angles to PA... good stuff.

Turbo gettin' paid...
Mr. Trend
  • #200
  • Feb 12, 2007 2:48pm Feb 12, 2007 2:48pm
Excellant thread. GBP has broken the green merdian and approaches the red meridian again. the daily bars have touched the black merdian 9 of the last 10 days.
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