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Braydensgrail System : )

  • #41
  • Jul 2, 2008 10:57am Jul 2, 2008 10:57am
Quoting gav1234
Agent

Didnt you see the long entry for the eur/usd 4h?
I was watching my charts all of yesterday....I just came back from the club and saw pips in the bank
I'm looking toshort the eurusd soon...i think it has been overbought....

+32pips eur usd

jun 2nd 2008

Lets see what else is in store for the week
gav,

No I missed EUR/USD short I dont think is was at the computer for that one but congradulations on banking some money, +32 pip is a very respectful amount, and its always good to be in profit. EUR/USD short? Hmmm I would be careful with that one,that pair broke some good resistance and looks like it may be continuing its long term trend upward again. We also have non-farm payroll along with some other important news in the next few days, so keep your stops tight. I usualy try not to trade a few days before non-farm, and a few days after, unless the news reflects the direction of the trend. Good luck, happy trading, and dont forget about the news : )
It's me...
  • #42
  • Jul 2, 2008 11:46am Jul 2, 2008 11:46am
Quoting AgentFx
gav,

No I missed EUR/USD short I dont think is was at the computer for that one but congradulations on banking some money, +32 pip is a very respectful amount, and its always good to be in profit. EUR/USD short? Hmmm I would be careful with that one,that pair broke some good resistance and looks like it may be continuing its long term trend upward again. We also have non-farm payroll along with some other important news in the next few days, so keep your stops tight. I usualy try not to trade a few days before non-farm, and a few days after, unless the news reflects the direction of the trend. Good luck, happy trading, and dont forget about the news : )
Agent...

I made +32 pips going LONG on the eur/usd.... not going short...but i did short it after i made profit using another system I use called the Eagle Breakout, made 15 pips with it....As we are seeing now the eur/usd has continued its upward trend...

Agent take a look now at the gbp/usd...its setting up to go long soon...
Patience is whats required for this system
  • #43
  • Jul 2, 2008 12:40pm Jul 2, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting gav1234
Agent...

I made +32 pips going LONG on the eur/usd.... not going short...but i did short it after i made profit using another system I use called the Eagle Breakout, made 15 pips with it....As we are seeing now the eur/usd has continued its upward trend...

Agent take a look now at the gbp/usd...its setting up to go long soon...
Patience is whats required for this system

sorry i was thinking long and typed short
It's me...
  • #44
  • Jul 2, 2008 6:27pm Jul 2, 2008 6:27pm
Trade Update:
EUR/GBP Long (Braydensgrail) Daily

Closed trade. I took this trade 4 days ago, the price action was just to slow for me.

+26 pips

Also I will not be doing any trading over the next few days with this system. I will wait for non-farm payroll (which is on Thursday not Friday because of the holiday by the way) and the other important news announcements coming out .I usually like trading the news, and using my scalping method I have used for a while, during these times. Happy holidays, and trading. Remember If you are going to take any trades over the next few days keep them stops tight : )
It's me...
  • #45
  • Jul 3, 2008 6:43pm Jul 3, 2008 6:43pm
New Trade:
GBP/USD short (Braydens Advanced Warning) Daily
It's me...
  • #46
  • Jul 4, 2008 3:02pm Jul 4, 2008 3:02pm
GBP/USD short (Braydens Advanced Warning) Daily
Hit trailing stop and closed
+14 Pips
Note: I will trade this pair again if it falls below 1.9800
It's me...
  • #47
  • Jul 6, 2008 12:40pm Jul 6, 2008 12:40pm
Hi Agentfx,

Thanks for taking time to post your system, signal and results. May I ask if you only use one time frame or MTF for this system?
  • #48
  • Jul 6, 2008 9:39pm Jul 6, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting GodFX
Hi Agentfx,

Thanks for taking time to post your system, signal and results. May I ask if you only use one time frame or MTF for this system?
GodFX,I use the 4H and Daily time frames for trading this system
It's me...
  • #49
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:50am Jul 7, 2008 7:50am
Quoting AgentFx
GodFX,I use the 4H and Daily time frames for trading this system
Hallo AgentFX!

Did CTGUY ever contact you via PM? There seems to be some stagnation on the 1KT thingy and I do not understand why. Answer by PM if you deem this place unfitting!

Ciao!
Matt
  • #50
  • Jul 7, 2008 1:34pm Jul 7, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting Gnat
Hallo AgentFX!

Did CTGUY ever contact you via PM? There seems to be some stagnation on the 1KT thingy and I do not understand why. Answer by PM if you deem this place unfitting!

Ciao!
Matt
Hello gnat, No thats ok this is fine, I have not heard from CTGUY in a while, can you check your private messages and let me know if you got anything..thanks

Regards,

Agentfx
It's me...
  • #51
  • Edited 4:32pm Jul 7, 2008 2:16pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting AgentFx
Hello gnat, No thats ok this is fine, I have not heard from CTGUY in a while, can you check your private messages and let me know if you got anything..thanks

Regards,

Agentfx
Hallo Agent!

Yeah ... I got one! Seems to work out fine! I will probably remind him later on to send the PM to you. Guess it will work out fine!

Ciao!
Matt
  • #52
  • Jul 7, 2008 3:42pm Jul 7, 2008 3:42pm
Hello AgentFX, thanks for sharing your system it looks promising. Think i might start trading this on a few pairs. Is there any reason you wouldnt take this trade, candle closes in 20 min. Looks like a good signal to me, as long as nothing changes
Attached Image
Nick
  • #53
  • Edited 4:46pm Jul 7, 2008 4:29pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting 555ngone
Hello AgentFX, thanks for sharing your system it looks promising. Think i might start trading this on a few pairs. Is there any reason you wouldnt take this trade, candle closes in 20 min. Looks like a good signal to me, as long as nothing changes
55ngone,

That is a valid signal on the chart you have there! Although EUD/USD still looks to be in consolidation from the last move upward, so I would keep my stops tight if you wanted to take that trade ...just some technical things to consider
It's me...
  • #54
  • Jul 7, 2008 4:36pm Jul 7, 2008 4:36pm
Thanks for the reply, i really appreciate it. Im still in a long thats at break even, and i added to the position with that signal. I think your right though looks like it will consolidate for a while before it moves again especially at this time. Just a micro account so well see what hapens.
Nick
  • #55
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:55pm Jul 7, 2008 6:55pm
I don’t see any trades today. It looks like pairs are still consolidating a bit from non-farm payroll last week. Will see how things look tomorrow, we should have some good trades in the next day or two.
It's me...
  • #56
  • Jul 7, 2008 6:56pm Jul 7, 2008 6:56pm
GBP/USD (Braydensgrail) Daily
sell stop was triggered 1.9798
trade closed (was expecting it to reach 1.9600, but retraced quite a bit and looks like a possible hammer forming on the daily at the end of the Asian session)
+93 pips
It's me...
  • #57
  • Jul 7, 2008 7:07pm Jul 7, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting 555ngone
Hello AgentFX, thanks for sharing your system it looks promising. Think i might start trading this on a few pairs. Is there any reason you wouldnt take this trade, candle closes in 20 min. Looks like a good signal to me, as long as nothing changes

okay...
i thought both lines on the SO had to clear 0 before entering the trade....

do both lines of the SO have to clear 0 or just one of them?

Thanks Agent
  • #58
  • Jul 8, 2008 1:26am Jul 8, 2008 1:26am
Quoting gav1234
okay...
i thought both lines on the SO had to clear 0 before entering the trade....

do both lines of the SO have to clear 0 or just one of them?

Thanks Agent

Hello there Gav,

There are several ways traders use Stochastic Oscillator. For this system I personally like to Buy when either %K or %D, rises above 0, and Sell when either %K or %D falls below 0. Although I feel stronger about the trade when both %K and %D crossed 0. I hope that dose not sound confusing.
It's me...
  • #59
  • Jul 8, 2008 7:18pm Jul 8, 2008 7:18pm
CHF/JPY Long (Braydens Advanced Warning) 4h
tight stop loss
USD/CHF short (Braydens Advanced Warning) 4h
tight stop loss
It's me...
  • #60
  • Jul 9, 2008 1:57am Jul 9, 2008 1:57am
Quoting Gnat
Hallo Mr.Forex!

To put the Holy Grail into some sort of grid try the following:

profit ratio = winrate/(1-winrate) * (total won/total loss)

<1.10 you probably will loose your money or be flat
1.10 bare minimum - 90% chance to double capital in 11,000 trades
1.20 slow system - 90% CTD in 1,200 trades
1.30 usable system - 90% CTD in 500 trades
1.40 average system - 90% CTD in 250 trades
1.50 good system - 90% CTD in 190 trades
1.60 very good system - 90% CTD in 125 trades
1.70 excellent system - 90% CTD in 100 trades
1.80 amazing system - 90% ctd in 80 trades
>2.00 holy grail - 90% CTD in 50 trades

This is all based on Risk of Ruin of 0.10%. also, how many times you can trade in a year really determines how holy your grail is.

Otherwise the Holy Grail is a mythical piece of pottery .... just look into wikipedia!

Hope that helped!
Ciao!
Gnat
Gnat, well done , I totally agree that profit factor is the most effective way to measure system performance (as opposed to other methods that count the net number of pips). Profit factor measures expectancy, the amount of return against the amount of risk, and the effectiveness of entries and exits, indepedently of position size (MM).

However, I'd be interested to know how you arrived at your percentages for 'chance to double' and 'risk of ruin'. For starters, I believe these are both directly affected by position size. For example if I risk 4% on each trade, instead of 2%, the probability of doubling my capital within a certain number of trades is significantly greater. And my risk of ruin, within a certain number of trades, is actually more than doubled. The formulae that relates profit factor, position size and risk of ruin to each other is sufficiently complex that most traders to prefer to run a Monte Carlo simulation as a proxy.

Like you say, the other key factor is time. Everything else being equal, if two systems "A" and "B" both average 5% return per 20 trades, but "A" averages 20 trades per month, and "B" 20 trades per year, then "A" is obviously the better performed system.

Another often overlooked point is statistical validity. I would feel much more comfortable trading a system with a profit factor of 1.3 that's been tested over 1,000 trades, to one with a profit factor of 1.5 that's been tested over only 50 trades.

IMHO a profit factor of 1.3 is very good, and 1.5 is outstanding, assuming the required level of statistical validity has been attained. The higher the profit factor (expectancy), the more safely one can increase position size beyond the 2% rule, and the greater the margin for error in terms of statistical confidence.

AgentFX, sorry to butt in on your thread. I wish you all the very best with your system.

David
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