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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #9,781
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:06am Jul 3, 2008 8:06am
Quoting dove_alliance
Yes, I know, it never makes sense...... But one thing is for sure...... a lot of traders got hurt on this one........
The question is... will it continue and take out 106.8 or was it an over-reaction and will go down again... hmm.m....
  • #9,782
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:06am Jul 3, 2008 8:06am
Quoting pipo77
what is the logical explanation of what happened..?
there must be one ..right ???
The jobs number for the month of June was bad but not bad enough to stifle the gains in the US dollar. Non-farm payrolls fell by 62k, the sixth consecutive decline in a row. The April number also was revised down from -49k to -62k while the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, matching the highest level since October 2004.
Anything short of 100k would have been dollar positive and that is exactly how the market reacted today. The biggest contributors were healthcare, education, leisure and government. The biggest losers were in goods producing and business services.
The importance of the NFP number depends upon how it impacts the Fed's monetary policy decisions and today's drop in jobs will not hold them back from raising interest rates in the third or fourth quarter. But the Fed needs to be very careful because jobless claims this week broke the 400k level. They came in at 404k this week, just shy of the 3/28 levels, which was the highest in 2.5 years. The labor market will get worst, but probably not as quickly as inflationary conditions, which is why the Fed will barely bat an eye at today's NFP numbers.
As for the ECB, so far, Trichet is moderate. After raising interest rates by 25bp this morning, he continues to harp on the risk of further upside inflationary pressures but at the same time he remains concerned about growth. Further rate hikes seems to be on the tip of his tongue, but Trichet does not want to spook the markets right now which is why he is simply leaving the door open for another rate hike this year. This is of course a disappointment to Euro bulls especially since Trichet said that he has "no bias."
The Euro has weakened against the US dollar post NFP and ECB, but the knee jerk sell-off may be a tad overdone. Euro weakness should be limited because the market still expects 3 rate hikes from the ECB over the next 12 months.
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com
  • #9,783
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:06am Jul 3, 2008 8:06am
Quoting pipo77
what is the logical explanation of what happened..?
there must be one ..right ???
All i can think of are the "big boys" from behind that Dove mentioned
  • #9,784
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:07am Jul 3, 2008 8:07am
Quoting pipo77
what is the logical explanation of what happened..?
there must be one ..right ???
The logical reason is the bank traders for the dollar took over.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,785
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:11am Jul 3, 2008 8:11am
R2 is at the 107.11
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,786
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:12am Jul 3, 2008 8:12am
It just went above yesterday's high.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,787
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:12am Jul 3, 2008 8:12am
Quoting dove_alliance
The logical reason is the bank traders for the dollar took over.......
took over ?? this means that we are going to 108 again ??
pip and run ....
  • #9,788
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:13am Jul 3, 2008 8:13am
Been long since 105.51.

+130 pips and counting.

  • #9,789
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:13am Jul 3, 2008 8:13am
One more big announcement at 10:00 ET
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,790
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:14am Jul 3, 2008 8:14am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Been long since 105.51.

+130 pips and counting.


good job, congrats
  • #9,791
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:14am Jul 3, 2008 8:14am
Maybe the Bush comments about strong dollar etc... are helping ... maybe they want a dollar rally for 4th July party .. I dont know ... just goes to prove something I saw on here ... trade what you see ... not what you think ........

Any ideas on potential top out for this today ...
  • #9,792
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:15am Jul 3, 2008 8:15am
Dove,

OK On a different note, can you check this and see if it looks correct. I read the instructions last night, this is the way it should be with the indicators and config you mentioned..?

Bristol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NewChart1.jpg Size: 224 KB
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,793
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:17am Jul 3, 2008 8:17am
Quoting art59
Maybe the Bush comments about strong dollar etc... are helping ... maybe they want a dollar rally for 4th July party .. I dont know ... just goes to prove something I saw on here ... trade what you see ... not what you think ........

Any ideas on potential top out for this today ...
Bush couldn't move the dollar. LOL
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #9,794
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:17am Jul 3, 2008 8:17am
Quoting trader07
The jobs number for the month of June was bad but not bad enough to stifle the gains in the US dollar. Non-farm payrolls fell by 62k, the sixth consecutive decline in a row. The April number also was revised down from -49k to -62k while the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, matching the highest level since October 2004.
Anything short of 100k would have been dollar positive and that is exactly how the market reacted today. The biggest contributors were healthcare, education, leisure and government. The biggest losers were in goods producing and business services.
The importance of the NFP number depends upon how it impacts the Fed's monetary policy decisions and today's drop in jobs will not hold them back from raising interest rates in the third or fourth quarter. But the Fed needs to be very careful because jobless claims this week broke the 400k level. They came in at 404k this week, just shy of the 3/28 levels, which was the highest in 2.5 years. The labor market will get worst, but probably not as quickly as inflationary conditions, which is why the Fed will barely bat an eye at today's NFP numbers.
As for the ECB, so far, Trichet is moderate. After raising interest rates by 25bp this morning, he continues to harp on the risk of further upside inflationary pressures but at the same time he remains concerned about growth. Further rate hikes seems to be on the tip of his tongue, but Trichet does not want to spook the markets right now which is why he is simply leaving the door open for another rate hike this year. This is of course a disappointment to Euro bulls especially since Trichet said that he has "no bias."
The Euro has weakened against the US dollar post NFP and ECB, but the knee jerk sell-off may be a tad overdone. Euro weakness should be limited because the market still expects 3 rate hikes from the ECB over the next 12 months.
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com
I'm glad someone out there can keep it right...... Thank you Trader07
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,795
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:22am Jul 3, 2008 8:22am
Quoting dove_alliance
I'm glad someone out there can keep it right...... Thank you Trader07
No problem... thank you for all your help.
  • #9,796
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:22am Jul 3, 2008 8:22am
Quoting bristolxyz
Dove,

OK On a different note, can you check this and see if it looks correct. I read the instructions last night, this is the way it should be with the indicators and config you mentioned..?

Bristol
Right click on your chart, click on "Extended time line", then click, "set time line" and then change your number of bars to 1 and then click OK.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,797
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:24am Jul 3, 2008 8:24am
Today was a great demonstration with all those news.

This just rekindles my moto "Do not try to forecast the future. If we could, we would ALL be ZILLIONAIRES".

Today was a great demosntration of why not trade the news. Also a great demonstration of: know your CRITICAL lines and trade to and from them. Have them up and ready.

Sometimes I laugh my self out loud with so many threads here @ FF filled with so called "experts" trying to forecast the future... The truth is no one can!

This gives me more and more conviction that TA along with staying away from the news is my best bet.

Later...
  • #9,798
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:26am Jul 3, 2008 8:26am
Quoting jupiter_peak
Today was a great demonstration with all those news.

This just rekindles my moto "Do not try to forecast the future. If we could, we would ALL be ZILLIONAIRES".

Today was a great demosntration of why not trade the news. Also a great demonstration of: know your CRITICAL lines and trade to and from them. Have them up and ready.

Sometimes I laugh my self out loud with so many threads here @ FF filled with so called "experts" trying to forecast the future... The truth is no one can!

This gives me more and more conviction that TA along with staying away from the news is my best bet.

Later...
absolutely right....
pip and run ....
  • #9,799
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:29am Jul 3, 2008 8:29am
  •  yxy
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: just one pip at a time | 55 Posts
Quoting trader07
The importance of the NFP number depends upon how it impacts the Fed's monetary policy decisions and today's drop in jobs will not hold them back from raising interest rates in the third or fourth quarter. ....By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com
"U.S. stock-index futures gained on speculation the Federal Reserve will hold off raising interest rates after a government report showed a decrease in jobs for a sixth straight month...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ejE&refer=home

Interesting! Already, we have a different of opinion by the expert on what the Fed's monetary policy decisions might be.
  • #9,800
  • Jul 3, 2008 8:30am Jul 3, 2008 8:30am
The eur hit its S2 and it may be finished for the day unless the next announcement decide to do some more damage......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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