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The art of Trading MAs

  • #381
  • Jul 2, 2008 5:21pm Jul 2, 2008 5:21pm
Quoting scratch
Hi,

I'm new to the forum and I only registered because of this thread! I could post my
comment this morning but my approvel needs several hours.
Then I got this beautiful message tonight "Forex Factory is undergoing scheduled server
upgrades and will be unavailable for about 1 hour. Thank you for your patience." and again
I can't update the thread

I really like this system! Good work endroute!

I want to share something about COG as you can see in the title. I downloaded the indicator
and build an ea that sends a message to get all the good trades.

But as many before there are some problems with COG repainting. Good for me, somebody
posted the source code. I'm a softwaredeveloper, it wasn't that
hard to understand the code.

To avoid all the repainting probs just set the parameter i to the correct value.
i is nothing else then the shift value in the MA's or e.g. the Bollinger Bands.

To help you all to get a better understanding about that I build an indicator
above the COG. I call it "COG NR" (NR stands for "no repaint") it shows you the values COG
has had in the past so you can easily backtest and reproduce why you did the trade.

Just copy the original COG and my modificated one to your indicators path, now restart and add
them to your chart.

TY
scratch
Good work on solving the repainting/backtesting issues. Am sure other posters to this thread will appreciate your efforts.

I attach a chart showing a real money entry I took on 12 June long CADJPY per the rules of this system. Netted me 117 pips but as you can see the actual COG (solid lines) now indicates this ema cross would have taken place near the channel centre, whereas the modified COG shows how it lined up on 12/06/2008.

Obviously this trade would have been filtered out of any backtests just using the COG on its own and therefore skew the results.

cheers

Crom

chart:

http://www.b3tards.com/u/910a7f16cb1...e17/cadjpy.gif
  • #382
  • Jul 2, 2008 6:46pm Jul 2, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting Crom!
Good work on solving the repainting/backtesting issues. Am sure other posters to this thread will appreciate your efforts.

I attach a chart showing a real money entry I took on 12 June long CADJPY per the rules of this system. Netted me 117 pips but as you can see the actual COG (solid lines) now indicates this ema cross would have taken place near the channel centre, whereas the modified COG shows how it lined up on 12/06/2008.

Obviously this trade would have been filtered out of any backtests just using the COG on its own and therefore skew the results.

cheers

Crom

chart:

http://www.b3tards.com/u/910a7f16cb1...e17/cadjpy.gif
Thanks for the chart and the explanations Croms.
IMO, by using the original COG, screen captures of the trades should be best taken on the time when the trades were taken (for further study), since the COG repaints.

Thanks for Scratch for bringing the COG NR, so that we can make comparison on the past trades which have been taken. I'll try to attach to my chart to see how it goes....

Big Thanks For Endroute, for the best setting using COG and 5EMA-13EMA. It really worked for me when patience is with me.... but when I was not patient, I lost.... At least, I knew that I did not follow the setups.

Good Job Endroute.... Please stay with us here....
  • #383
  • Jul 2, 2008 9:41pm Jul 2, 2008 9:41pm
Nice work scratch now I can see this method works... The few trades I tested in real time lost and I blamed the repainting of the COG for giving me false signals but now I can see that yes there is real potential in this method. Cheers

Also the few I tested live were on the 5 and 15 min charts !

Backtesting is important I wonder if there is any way now we can program the COG to go back more days

Thanks Again
Time hides Nothing
  • #384
  • Edited Jul 3, 2008 2:43am Jul 2, 2008 10:32pm | Edited Jul 3, 2008 2:43am
Just got a signal on GU lets see what eventuates....

It is NFP day though


4 hours later...... 20 pip SL taken out (Chart #2)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj170608.gif Size: 22 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #385
  • Edited 2:42am Jul 3, 2008 1:03am | Edited 2:42am
Heres another entry was 1 hour and a bit ago seems to be going well...

Time will tell...

...2 hours later 20 PIP SL hit (Chart #2)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec1.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ec2.gif Size: 21 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #386
  • Jul 3, 2008 1:18am Jul 3, 2008 1:18am
One more for the road... UJ entry was a couple of hours ago
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 22 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #387
  • Jul 3, 2008 1:53am Jul 3, 2008 1:53am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Time will tell...
Quoting CindyXXXX
One more for the road... UJ entry was a couple of hours ago
Can you please post the results when the trades finished? TY

Quoting jgadefelth
hmmm if i get itright acording to your indicator there have not been on right signal in GBP/USD or EUR/USD 1 hour chart for as long back the indicator goes hmmmm is something whrong ?
My chart (1hour) shows an buy entry for EUR/USD! Watch the red circle. The dashed green line is above the EMA cross here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cog_nr_chart_2.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #388
  • Jul 3, 2008 2:41am Jul 3, 2008 2:41am
Results posted above

EC -20
GU -20

still waiting for UJ to finish but not looking great.

Like I said before it is NFP day and the market (smart money) is probebly waiting for the news.
Time hides Nothing
  • #389
  • Jul 3, 2008 2:46am Jul 3, 2008 2:46am
Quoting scratch
My chart (1hour) shows an buy entry for EUR/USD! Watch the red circle. The dashed green line is above the EMA cross here.
Hi,
Don't you look for clearer signals ? I take trades only when the crossover itself occurs above/below the green line. I want to as sure as possible the price is trending, not ranging with a spike who crossed the green line.
I can't say it is an "insurance company" because I failed with NU 4H yesterday, but it make me feel better with the entry.
BR
Dani M.
BTW, thanks scratch for the indicator.
  • #390
  • Jul 3, 2008 3:05am Jul 3, 2008 3:05am
Quoting dan_mir
Hi,
Don't you look for clearer signals ? I take trades only when the crossover itself occurs above/below the green line. I want to as sure as possible the price is trending, not ranging with a spike who crossed the green line.
I can't say it is an "insurance company" because I failed with NU 4H yesterday, but it make me feel better with the entry.
BR
Dani M.
BTW, thanks scratch for the indicator.
Thats exactly the point in the chart I posted above (sorry the chart isn't best quality). For backtesting you cannot use COG because COG gives you only the now. COG NR instead shows you the old values of COG. See the dashed lines and you can see that ema cross in the red circle is below the lower green line (= buy for me). Correct me if I am wrong.

FYI: I will rewrite COG NR that it is an independent indicator because I realized some perfomance problems on backtesting. I will then upload the compiled and the source file for everyone.

TY
scratch
  • #391
  • Jul 3, 2008 3:24am Jul 3, 2008 3:24am
Quoting scratch
Thats exactly the point in the chart I posted above (sorry the chart isn't best quality). scratch
Hi scratch,
I'm sorry. You're right, I didn't see the green dashed line behind the circle.
Good entry IMO.
Dani M.
  • #392
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:11am Jul 3, 2008 4:11am
Quoting scratch
Hi,

I'm new to the forum and I only registered because of this thread! I could post my
comment this morning but my approvel needs several hours.
Then I got this beautiful message tonight "Forex Factory is undergoing scheduled server
upgrades and will be unavailable for about 1 hour. Thank you for your patience." and again
I can't update the thread

I really like this system! Good work endroute!

I want to share something about COG as you can see in the title. I downloaded the indicator
and build an ea that sends a message to get all the good trades.

But as many before there are some problems with COG repainting. Good for me, somebody
posted the source code. I'm a softwaredeveloper, it wasn't that
hard to understand the code.

To avoid all the repainting probs just set the parameter i to the correct value.
i is nothing else then the shift value in the MA's or e.g. the Bollinger Bands.

To help you all to get a better understanding about that I build an indicator
above the COG. I call it "COG NR" (NR stands for "no repaint") it shows you the values COG
has had in the past so you can easily backtest and reproduce why you did the trade.

Just copy the original COG and my modificated one to your indicators path, now restart and add
them to your chart.

TY
scratch

Hi scratch,

With the modification of COG , are you saying that we have to change the value of the setting? or we just stay on with endroute's setting?

Still Blurrr...

Anyway for me myself, I have no problem with the repainting since that I am using it right on time. If I miss, then I will chase for another opportunity.

Thanks

KOD
  • #393
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:14am Jul 3, 2008 4:14am
Hey Dinar I'm pretty sure he means use the same settings - its just with the modified COG you can see the exact position of it in the past -hence "No repaint".

For live trading yes your right the normal COG works fine. if you look at them both in real time they are of course in the same position as each other.
Time hides Nothing
  • #394
  • Jul 3, 2008 4:54am Jul 3, 2008 4:54am
One thing that bothers me is that we where given instructions by Endroute basicaly not talking about our trading or indicators and things IN HIS THREAD and that he was willing to teash us some if we just listened and posted our trades the way he wanted.

The first thing we do i s change hes main indicator the cog and start talkin about it and compare it. I hope im whrong and that Endroute dont have been afended by this but he was not here yesterday......


So Endroute pls forgive me if i have ofended you and pls forgive the others too.


Best regards jgadefelth
  • #395
  • Jul 3, 2008 5:01am Jul 3, 2008 5:01am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Dinar I'm pretty sure he means use the same settings - its just with the modified COG you can see the exact position of it in the past -hence "No repaint".

For live trading yes your right the normal COG works fine. if you look at them both in real time they are of course in the same position as each other.
Thanks Cindy...

KOD
  • #396
  • Jul 3, 2008 5:06am Jul 3, 2008 5:06am
if you trade MAs and you are good at it then the best result you can get is break even in the long run. it does look good in hindsight, yes. be careful.
  • #397
  • Jul 3, 2008 5:08am Jul 3, 2008 5:08am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Dinar I'm pretty sure he means use the same settings - its just with the modified COG you can see the exact position of it in the past -hence "No repaint".

For live trading yes your right the normal COG works fine. if you look at them both in real time they are of course in the same position as each other.
Thats it! I couldn't explain it better.
  • #398
  • Jul 3, 2008 5:58am Jul 3, 2008 5:58am
Quoting jgadefelth
One thing that bothers me is that we where given instructions by Endroute basicaly not talking about our trading or indicators and things IN HIS THREAD and that he was willing to teash us some if we just listened and posted our trades the way he wanted.

The first thing we do i s change hes main indicator the cog and start talkin about it and compare it. I hope im whrong and that Endroute dont have been afended by this but he was not here yesterday......


So Endroute pls forgive me if i have ofended you and pls forgive the others too.


Best regards jgadefelth
I see what you're saying J but nothing has been changed the COG is still exactly the same. Weather you ue the modified version or the normal version in real time it doesn't matter they are the same... The only difference is the modified COG we can backtest.
Time hides Nothing
  • #399
  • Jul 3, 2008 6:06am Jul 3, 2008 6:06am
Scratch nice work this is cool. There may be some more optimum settings that can be applied to the cog. As for me no trades this week I am on vacation, and most of all no trades on nfp days, no system can keep you from killing yourself on these days.
  • #400
  • Jul 4, 2008 12:57pm Jul 4, 2008 12:57pm
Endroute pls give us some more mutch mutch more info to read in the week end.


best regards
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