USD/JPY Discussion | Page 481 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #9,601
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:18pm Jun 30, 2008 10:18pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
Hey my friend,

Don't just jump out of your chair. I have been trading longer than you might think. Don't need to compete with no one because I am too old for this.. So just chill.

Just take the opportunity to have a wider look. I believe you could be short sighted. Take the opportunity to see something from a different perspective. Maybe go back to observing some theories (like the Elliot wave theory) that migh be contarditory to some and not so to others.

So as you say, price is moving neither way, use your time wisely.

Besides, price can only move two ways... Either up or down. Simple.

Cheers and have a beer.

Besides
I'm not excited but why don't you give us some insight of the theories you speak about while we are waiting......? For either the up or down......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,602
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:24pm Jun 30, 2008 10:24pm
on 30 min chart usd/jpy has resitance at 106.40 area and support around 105.90. rsi positve as it is ranging between 50 and 70. pin bar on daily . hoping to catch a bounce at support back up to 107.10 level. break support will probably re-test 105.00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart10.JPG Size: 102 KB
  • #9,603
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:30pm Jun 30, 2008 10:30pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I'm not excited but why don't you give us some insight of the theories you speak about while we are waiting......? For either the up or down......

Not my Theory, but some guy called Ralph Nelson Elliott. It's a wave theory.

Concerning price direction, why don't you enlighten us on your theory about price going "SIDEWAYS"?

Since you are bored that price is going "sideways" as you say, please give us your well sustained explanation.

Maybe price goes from 105.88 to 105.88 to 105.88.

I am stil thinking about it and can't quite figure out how that's possible.
  • #9,604
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:38pm Jun 30, 2008 10:38pm
The rendering I created displays a probabilistic plot. The data set contains the tick_bid_data_prints ‘date’ 6_30_2008 from 200+ contributor banks.


USD/JPY Summary

Min: 104.9500000
1st Qu.: 105.8000000
Mean: 105.9802082
Median: 106.1200000
3rd Qu.: 106.2000000
Max: 106.4700000
Total N: 7300.0000000
Variance: 0.1168857
Std Dev.: 0.3418855

The bar key on the right displays frequency information.

http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1214882044

freeTrader
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_jpy_6_30.JPG Size: 111 KB
  • #9,605
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:39pm Jun 30, 2008 10:39pm
Hi Guys,

This is my USDJPY analysis, based on W1, it looks like a bear flag to me though there is no Low High, might be breaking out soon if it does happen. On D1 TF, It has already broken out of it up trend, it might move up a little today due to yesterday huge rejection before climbing down again. On H1 TF, it also seems like a bear flag to me.

Any comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-W1.jpg Size: 159 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-D1.jpg Size: 156 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-H1.jpg Size: 193 KB
May the pips be with me !!!
  • #9,606
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:40pm Jun 30, 2008 10:40pm
Well, we get a new monthly pivot today.

What's all this talk about wave theory. Does someone have a chart of USDJPY they are working on? Post it!

Dove, you're always getting into fights.. Sheesh.
  • #9,607
  • Edited 10:54pm Jun 30, 2008 10:45pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting freetrader
The rendering I created displays a probabilistic plot. The data set contains the tick_bid_data_prints ‘date’ 6_30_2008 from 200+ contributor banks.

http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1214882044 freeTrader
whoa! I have no idea what that is, what it means, or what you said, but I think I remember seeing something like that back in the 60's one night...

I think it was chasing me.

I vote this to be the most amazing first post ever in the history of FF.

oh yeah... Hai, genki desu, anata wa?
FUBAR...
  • #9,608
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:45pm Jun 30, 2008 10:45pm
Quoting s3padrian
Well, we get a new monthly pivot today.

What's all this talk about wave theory. Does someone have a chart of USDJPY they are working on? Post it!

Dove, you're always getting into fights.. Sheesh.
I didn't say anything..... smiling ...... I could of but I didn't
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,609
  • Jun 30, 2008 10:46pm Jun 30, 2008 10:46pm
Trading fx. One needs to be flexible with time. There are times where you trade takes really a short time to develop. There are times where you will need to let it mature. There are time where you may need to scale in/out aggresively/conservatively.

Booking profits/loss and trade management is an art. In the end, fti sums it up the best. Bulls win, bears win, the pigs get slaugthered. Dont get caught in between bus stops.
  • #9,610
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:06pm Jun 30, 2008 11:06pm
108-105 will be the range for a while.
  • #9,611
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:13pm Jun 30, 2008 11:13pm
Quoting ak4x
whoa! I have no idea what that is, what it means, or what you said, but I think I remember seeing something like that back in the 60's one night...

I think it was chasing me.

I vote this to be the most amazing first post ever in the history of FF.

oh yeah... Hai, genki desu, anata wa?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ak4x: I thought people might find my chart curious. TY

My graph plots the frequency of bids. The color represents the clusters of bids. The vertical axis is the probability distribution of the data. Follow the data from 105 toward 106 and you see the bidding structure of the move.

freeTrader

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
  • #9,612
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:21pm Jun 30, 2008 11:21pm
Dove how do you decide when to go into scalp mode and when not to ?

Dean.
perception is reality
  • #9,613
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:25pm Jun 30, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting freetrader
Ak4x: I thought people might find my chart curious. TY

My graph plots the frequency of bids. The color represents the clusters of bids. The vertical axis is the probability distribution of the data. Follow the data from 105 toward 106 and you see the bidding structure of the move.
freeTrader
All righty then. Well my friend, I appreciate your confidence in me, but like Dirty Harry once said, "every man has got to know his limitations..." I'll have to pass on this one.

You should gin up one of those things for the GBP/JPY tho, and post it on the Auslanco thread. Those boys could use a good shakin up over there, and Orion's Way might find he has a new friend to talk to...
FUBAR...
  • #9,614
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:44pm Jun 30, 2008 11:44pm
Quoting freetrader
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ak4x: I thought people might find my chart curious. TY

My graph plots the frequency of bids. The color represents the clusters of bids. The vertical axis is the probability distribution of the data. Follow the data from 105 toward 106 and you see the bidding structure of the move.

freeTrader

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
At the risk of sounding like a total n00b, how does one analyze this chart with an eye toward making a trading decision? IOW, what good is it?
  • #9,615
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:52pm Jun 30, 2008 11:52pm
Is there anyone know where it might going?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart1.JPG Size: 136 KB
Trade with trends not your friends...
  • #9,616
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:52pm Jun 30, 2008 11:52pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I didn't say anything..... smiling ...... I could of but I didn't
  • #9,617
  • Jun 30, 2008 11:55pm Jun 30, 2008 11:55pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Smiling - well, you know how I am....... It could of gone to another level.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #9,618
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:42am Jul 1, 2008 12:42am
http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1214888547

When I determine market bias I ask specific questions:

What investigation method should I employ?

“ If a man gives no thought about what is distant, he will find sorrow near at hand” Confucius

Formulate problem à
Obtain Information à
Select Method à
Implement Method à
Evaluate Method à [ loop to select methods]
Use Forecasts

Methods:

Expert Opinion
Conjoint Analysis
Judgmental Bootstrapping
Analogies
Extrapolation
Rule-Based Forecasting
Expert Systems
Econometric Models


I assume you are utilizing some time-series analysis a subset of econometric models?


Periodicity: what time frame am I interested in?

Q. Do you have schematic of the different time periods you want to investigate?

If you wanted to determine the market bias for the next 5 milliseconds using tick prints might be your data set. However, if you want to examine the coming week tick data would prove computationally intensive; you might smooth the tick data with a low-pass filter etc..

THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE:

Aim for a relatively simple model specifications.

A STRATEGY FOR ECONOMETRIC FORECASTERS

  1. Define the objectives of the modeling effort.
  2. Determine the set of variables to use based on theory and previous work.
  3. Collect data; the longer the time series the better.
  4. Form an initial specification of the model. Example: ARIMA model
  5. Estimate the model.
  6. Assess model adequacy by conducting misspecification tests.
  7. Simply the model as much as possible.

Compare out-of-sample performance of the final model against back casting results.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd_jpy_long_term.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #9,619
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:49am Jul 1, 2008 12:49am
Okidoki. Everything including my Ichimoku analysis and the bearish divergence in the 30M chart spotted is working great so far as previously planned.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9535
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9574

In addition to all the technical analysis, the expectation for the ECB's rate hike on Thursday must have been helping USD/JPY head lower, though.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b7c1b2-4...0779fd2ac.html

Good luck, everyone!
  • #9,620
  • Jul 1, 2008 1:00am Jul 1, 2008 1:00am
A nice sell as it broke the Central and then the Daily Pivot - the agua 34 ema was my first signal....

Now to see what the German and UK data do......

Edit: data not far off expectations...a little positive
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jly 1 uj 5m.gif Size: 11 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
38 traders viewing now