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GBP/CHF and USD/CHF

  • #281
  • Jun 30, 2008 3:47pm Jun 30, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting Clouds
usd/chf has 102-106 range for 2 months, i wouldn't call that bullish , but i wouldn't call that bearish either. it's ranged 6 times, going up to 106 , down to 102, up to 105, down to 102, up to 105, ect.... more than 1 or 2 days.. the last low was 3 months ago at .99 or so. and we haven't broken a new low. So i dont see it being bearish as much as a range for now.
yep, you are right its rangeing. For me, inside the range there is also a direction (an upper part and a lower part), so i meant bullish/bearish in the direction of range-border.

However, daily candle close is near, and we have a bullish hammer, on both usd/chf and gbp/chf. I will tighten my SL. For gbp/chf there is a trendline near 2,04, a little bit above would be a good SL, and for usd/chf SL a bit above the shadow of the last days candle.

btw, my teacher is gbp/chf bearish, so thats an interesting situation
  • #282
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:03pm Jun 30, 2008 4:03pm
maybe somebody like to know my thinking behind my short trades:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf_thisweek.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #283
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:07pm Jun 30, 2008 4:07pm
Quoting peaches
yep, you are right its rangeing. For me, inside the range there is also a direction (an upper part and a lower part), so i meant bullish/bearish in the direction of range-border.

However, daily candle close is near, and we have a bullish hammer, on both usd/chf and gbp/chf. I will tighten my SL. For gbp/chf there is a trendline near 2,04, a little bit above would be a good SL, and for usd/chf SL a bit above the shadow of the last days candle.

btw, my teacher is gbp/chf bearish, so thats an interesting situation
gbp/chf was bullish from 03 - to 07' the drop in the middle of 07' is such a sharp drop, many expect it to come back to 2.45 and beyond. some want those 5,000 pips back. also the chf has low interest rates , its not like aud, so it makes sense to buy it for carry.. im sort of hoping it goes up like gbp/jpy has done. its very close to a break out. also it's respecting lows on weekly, but it could go down to 150 too, never know
  • #284
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:18pm Jun 30, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting peaches
maybe somebody like to know my thinking behind my short trades:
good chart, ill show you why im bullish.
Attached Image

Attached Image
  • #285
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:50pm Jun 30, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting Clouds
gbp/chf was bullish from 03 - to 07' the drop in the middle of 07' is such a sharp drop, many expect it to come back to 2.45 and beyond. some want those 5,000 pips back. also the chf has low interest rates , its not like aud, so it makes sense to buy it for carry.. im sort of hoping it goes up like gbp/jpy has done. its very close to a break out. also it's respecting lows on weekly, but it could go down to 150 too, never know
it´s the same with gbpjpy: after 3 month bullish everybody thinks,
its clear, this one goes up. But if you look at monthly, the 50 % fibo is broken to the downside, so I think, it will first test 61,8 fibo line, which is 187,50.

I don´t want to irretade anybody, it also might go up 23,6 fibo-line. Its just my thinking, baked up with markams fundamentals.

Who knows.

GBPCHF might be similar.

Have to go to bed now, nighty
  • #286
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:56pm Jun 30, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting Clouds
good chart, ill show you why im bullish.
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you might be right, that this channel is working on.

fundamental i have an eye to the rate decision from ECB.
If 4,0 => 4,25 this is euro bullish, whitch is BAD for USD.
This is, why i´m thinking channel break to the lower side.

Maybe its not logic...

Time will tell, i have tightend my SL
  • #287
  • Jun 30, 2008 5:01pm Jun 30, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting peaches
you might be right, that this channel is working on.

fundamental i have an eye to the rate decision from ECB.
If 4,0 => 4,25 this is euro bullish, whitch is BAD for USD.
This is, why i´m thinking channel break to the lower side.

Maybe its not logic...

Time will tell, i have tightend my SL
yes, you probably are right, most are bullish eur/usd, im bearish eur/usd, but bullish most other eur pairs for now...
  • #288
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:23am Jul 1, 2008 12:23am
have a look at the volume at the weekly. Interesting.
Especially the last 3 weeks. It`s loosing power.

gbp/jpy and aud/jpy: BIG money is in the house today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #289
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:29am Jul 1, 2008 12:29am
* I posted this in one of the other threads about GJ but this goes double for GC since we have a daily triangle getting ready to be taken out.

With the new monthly Pivot zone now at 209.71 for Gbp/JPY all the longs are in a very risky place. There is a high likely hood of a daily close below that and even further. In addition to that we have a new monthly Pivot for the GC at 2.0334 (Price is under this).

We will have major heat on all carry trades coming up with all the following issues:

DJIA weekly support taken out, Gold flying away, Real Estate falling, Banks under preassure, Inflation out of control, Looming war in the middle east... Do I need to keep going? These times are about risk adversion and this will cause a sell off on GJ and GC in the coming weeks and we have a new monthly pivot that wants to be taken out.

GJ & GC shorts should look good tonight.
  • #290
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:42am Jul 1, 2008 12:42am
Quoting peaches
have a look at the volume at the weekly. Interesting.
Especially the last 3 weeks. It`s loosing power.

gbp/jpy and aud/jpy: BIG money is in the house today
looks like we will retest 2.0222 again soon, ill buy there not because i think its going long, but because its low risk trade, shorting uj til we get there
  • #291
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:49am Jul 1, 2008 12:49am
Quoting mmccormac
* I posted this in one of the other threads about GJ but this goes double for GC since we have a daily triangle getting ready to be taken out.

With the new monthly Pivot zone now at 209.71 for Gbp/JPY all the longs are in a very risky place. There is a high likely hood of a daily close below that and even further. In addition to that we have a new monthly Pivot for the GC at 2.0334 (Price is under this).

We will have major heat on all carry trades coming up with all the following issues:

DJIA weekly support taken out, Gold flying away, Real Estate falling, Banks under preassure, Inflation out of control, Looming war in the middle east... Do I need to keep going? These times are about risk adversion and this will cause a sell off on GJ and GC in the coming weeks and we have a new monthly pivot that wants to be taken out.

GJ & GC shorts should look good tonight.
105 UJ may be a barrier, we'll have wait and see
  • #292
  • Jul 1, 2008 3:56am Jul 1, 2008 3:56am
Quoting B@by trader
R1:2.0388 but now already recommend secure pips so no risk
target achieved.
Im now long usd/chf.
  • #293
  • Jul 1, 2008 4:00am Jul 1, 2008 4:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #294
  • Jul 1, 2008 5:46am Jul 1, 2008 5:46am
Quoting B@by trader
target achieved.
Im now long usd/chf.
you may re-evaluate your position, there is another trendline broken to the downside (red dashed line).

Also there is BAD USD forecastet later...,see FF calender.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #295
  • Jul 1, 2008 5:51am Jul 1, 2008 5:51am
gbp/chf:

blue light dashed trendline holding so far, next resistance is the red dashed line.

MACD is gowing down.

My mentor was right, and i was wrong, this thing is going down.

Luck for my, i´m still in the bearish trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #296
  • Jul 1, 2008 5:55am Jul 1, 2008 5:55am
Quoting peaches
gbp/chf:

blue light dashed trendline holding so far, next resistance is the red dashed line.

MACD is gowing down.

My mentor was right, and i was wrong, this thing is going down.

Luck for my, i´m still in the bearish trade.
if you want see two exact same pairs look at EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF, they are opposite, but 'identical'
  • #297
  • Jul 1, 2008 6:06am Jul 1, 2008 6:06am
Quoting peaches
you may re-evaluate your position, there is another trendline broken to the downside (red dashed line).

Also there is BAD USD forecastet later...,see FF calender.
Maybe you are right but news news news.
just wait and see after.
  • #298
  • Jul 1, 2008 10:17am Jul 1, 2008 10:17am
Guys , It is logical to go down . but I see analysis in the crownforex.com tell that the target will 1.08 ????????????/

any idea ??
  • #299
  • Jul 1, 2008 10:34am Jul 1, 2008 10:34am
Quoting Clouds
if you want see two exact same pairs look at EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF, they are opposite, but 'identical'
never seen this before, thanx for mentioning it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #300
  • Jul 1, 2008 10:41am Jul 1, 2008 10:41am
Quoting B@by trader
Maybe you are right but news news news.
just wait and see after.
forecast was wrong AGAIN.

I noticed it sometimes before. Price was
irretated about that (and i was, too).
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