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  • #741
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:18am Jun 27, 2008 4:18am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hello hello hello - ok so EUR 65 level paid some pips, about 40-something, and the dollar crushing is obviously continuing tonight. The only one I left anything open on was my short USD/JPY trade and long AUD/USD.

The way things are moving now Im looking for a bunch up on EUR, maybe a push a little higher into the 1.5800's looking at tonights numbers. 1.5817 area is the monthly high, wuth resistance as low as 1.5800, so that's going to be looked at. 1.5841 is the major retracement level, so that will get some attention as well. Ultimately, strategy still the same....looking for the best short.

Same situation in reverse for USD/CHF.

There isn't a lot of built up hype around anything past these marks, so some profit taking should be going on with reversal in mind as all the bulls go running for the hills on EUR. Right now positions look still widely open though. US session should change that, especially with the weekend ahead.

Equity markets playing hard on the USD, but nothing that hasnt been expected for the last week about.

AUD Im still the same - Im long taking partial at .9650 area with ultimate target at .9750 area. JPY - keeping the short open until I see signs of anything otherwise.
Not sure if there's a lot of value here as its coming from a retail platform, but its pretty much in line whith what I was saying for the day regarding shorts: huge spike at 58, 58.45 area as well......http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/stati..._summary.shtml
  • #742
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:26am Jun 27, 2008 4:26am
have to be carefull with euro since trichet speaks today.
  • #743
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:33am Jun 27, 2008 4:33am
according to market news int.--there are medium offers for euro at 1.5820/25 and strong offers at 1.5850 plus option barrier-so all of that lines up with a good place to short unless trichet says he is going to raise rates untill euro economy falls off a cliff
  • #744
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:37am Jun 27, 2008 8:37am
My no brainer for the GBPUSD turned out to be a NO BRAINS instead. Now looking for the 1.9890 area to hold. If so then I am targeting the 1.9790-80 area.

I still look to buy USDCAD at 1.0024

EURJPY spiked higher than I hoped on the first entry but given the extreme level was worth a scale in sell which did pay off nicely. Currently there is support in the area of 167.20 with a break I would target 166.80 I feel confident with sells below 167.80-70 area

USDJPY never rose to my dream level but was good for a sell. (103.30?) Support for now is 106.20 area with the next push down targeting 105.60

Euro and Swiss BRV has already cover nicely and I really like what you are doing. Adding in the Option info. Extremely valuable!

Have a great weekend everyone!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #745
  • Jun 27, 2008 11:13am Jun 27, 2008 11:13am
Dear Thread,

Just signing on up. Nice to be aboard. Tanks, Billy, and all contributors.


Lenoxer
  • #746
  • Jun 27, 2008 11:22am Jun 27, 2008 11:22am
eoro/gbp nearing support at .7888
  • #747
  • Jun 27, 2008 12:01pm Jun 27, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting renegade7
Right. The point is though that your winners will be far bigger than your losers and thus make you overall profitable, regardless of whether only one out of every five trades is actually a winner.

If your positions are insignificant to begin with, then you really stand nothign to lose from a trade gone wrong. A trade in profit however...well then you've made some money at a risk not worth even discussing. The beauty of forex.

Don't sweat it. Your calls have been great from what I've read, you're going to be successful
Thanks for the encouragement and the tip renegade7, appreciate it.
I need to pull my stuff together and improve on the mistakes I make.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #748
  • Jun 28, 2008 3:36pm Jun 28, 2008 3:36pm
Quoting Iron-man
My no brainer for the GBPUSD turned out to be a NO BRAINS instead. Now looking for the 1.9890 area to hold. If so then I am targeting the 1.9790-80 area.

I still look to buy USDCAD at 1.0024

EURJPY spiked higher than I hoped on the first entry but given the extreme level was worth a scale in sell which did pay off nicely. Currently there is support in the area of 167.20 with a break I would target 166.80 I feel confident with sells below 167.80-70 area

USDJPY never rose to my dream level but was good for a sell. (103.30?) Support for now is 106.20 area with the next push down targeting 105.60

Euro and Swiss BRV has already cover nicely and I really like what you are doing. Adding in the Option info. Extremely valuable!

Have a great weekend everyone!
GBP has pushed higher still. The 1.9960-50 area is the next resistance area which is near where it closed on Friday. I will be watching Sunday for a gap down. (Which would be bearish) with a retracement to the top of the gap where I would look to short it. A break up from there could give us more upside push. The gretaest volume of options for pound appreciation has been exhausted though there are calls in July all the way up to the 2.0100 area.

Perhaps, Billy Ray, you could share your thoughts on the options volume data.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #749
  • Jun 28, 2008 5:19pm Jun 28, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting Iron-man

I still look to buy USDCAD at 1.0024
Same here. I've made Andrew's Pitchfork charts on it. Guess what? USD/CAD median price located @ 1.0800. Something must be happen to pump this pair. Maybe a large oil correction or something else,,, I dont know. All I know is Andrew's Pitchfork works very well for me since 2003.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.
  • #750
  • Jun 28, 2008 6:51pm Jun 28, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting goldbug
Same here. I've made Andrew's Pitchfork charts on it. Guess what? USD/CAD median price located @ 1.0800. Something must be happen to pump this pair. Maybe a large oil correction or something else,,, I dont know. All I know is Andrew's Pitchfork works very well for me since 2003.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.


Goldbug-
Could you share with us your USD/CAD chart showing your Andrew's Pitchfork setup and a brief explanation? Do you have a good source for learning about AP?
  • #751
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:14pm Jun 28, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Thread,

Just signing on up. Nice to be aboard. Tanks, Billy, and all contributors.


Lenoxer

Hi Lenoxer, nice to have u around, please feel free to chime in anytime.
  • #752
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:18pm Jun 28, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting goldbug
Same here. I've made Andrew's Pitchfork charts on it. Guess what? USD/CAD median price located @ 1.0800. Something must be happen to pump this pair. Maybe a large oil correction or something else,,, I dont know. All I know is Andrew's Pitchfork works very well for me since 2003.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.
Was in a long USDCAD position but got stopped out at breakeven after being in the money 40 something pips. I think you're right; we started to see the push down again around the same time the oil market picked up speed; not to mention the overall USD weakness the past couple of days. Overall still looking to develop a long position in this though targeting 1.0200 - 1.0300.
  • #753
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:19pm Jun 28, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting kingskids
Goldbug-
Could you share with us your USD/CAD chart showing your Andrew's Pitchfork setup and a brief explanation? Do you have a good source for learning about AP?
this might help:

http://www.trading-naked.com/AndrewsPitchfork.htm
  • #754
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:31am Jun 29, 2008 10:31am
I see a no brainer trade so thought i'd post it here.
GBP/USD @ 1.9950
Draw a descending resistance line from Nov 07 H and Mar 08 H.

my humble recomendation is to use 4 times leverage to go long
2 times @ market
and once at 20 pips better entry
and once more at 40 pips better entry

i can see this going to 2.01 at least from here
don't know if it will get sucked down a bit first but i'm guessing not as the close on friday didn't get sucked down much from the high of the day/week

i would close 1/2 @ 2.01 and
then close @ 2.0150

if this retraces 100 pips all bets are off

steve
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #755
  • Jun 29, 2008 10:39am Jun 29, 2008 10:39am
yes the AUD is going up but no telling how long this resistance @ .9650 will hold
my trade
buy on stop @ 0.9675
sell half @ 0.97 for some bread and butter money
Sell rest @ 0.99

1.00 will be a big resistance level and will be very volatile area
if it becomes a resistance level it will be a good place to repeatedly go short from for 75 pips
could be a 2008 xmas present
time will tell

steve 29 June 2008
Don't kill your dreams - execute them.
  • #756
  • Jun 29, 2008 6:15pm Jun 29, 2008 6:15pm
So we've got the end of the month, and the year is half way through.

What should we be looking out for? Is today a profit taking day?
  • #757
  • Edited 11:01pm Jun 29, 2008 7:12pm | Edited 11:01pm
Sell AUD/USD .9896 - .9909

I dont like calling things this far in advance, but when it does hit, under normal conditions, it should work just fine, to say the very least. Data goes back to 1982 through 1983. Anyway here it is for when the time comes:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #758
  • Jun 29, 2008 7:15pm Jun 29, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Sell AUD/USD .9896 - .9909

I dont like calling things this far in advance, but when it does hit, under normal conditions, it should work just fine. Data goes back to 1982 through 1983. Anyway here it is for when the time comes:
By the way I noticed there are still a bunch of pending trades posted throughout, big ones like this, if you flip back through the thread....theyre a little scattered but just to let you know.
  • #759
  • Edited 11:02pm Jun 29, 2008 10:20pm | Edited 11:02pm
Long EUR/CHF 1.5960 - 1.5945

If price can wean its way down there this level should provide some pips. The most probabilistic level for a reaction is on the upper tier, at 1.5956-54. Historically, it has held a lot of weight, and with conditions in the world of EUR and CHF developing as they are, it should hold for a decent run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #760
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:02am Jun 30, 2008 12:02am
Hi BillyRay,

do you think that this is still a valid scenario, ie. euro reversal? Euro rate increase is pretty likely next Thursday.

R

Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hello hello hello - ok so EUR 65 level paid some pips, about 40-something, and the dollar crushing is obviously continuing tonight. The only one I left anything open on was my short USD/JPY trade and long AUD/USD.

The way things are moving now Im looking for a bunch up on EUR, maybe a push a little higher into the 1.5800's looking at tonights numbers. 1.5817 area is the monthly high, wuth resistance as low as 1.5800, so that's going to be looked at. 1.5841 is the major retracement level, so that will get some attention as well. Ultimately, strategy still the same....looking for the best short.

Same situation in reverse for USD/CHF.

There isn't a lot of built up hype around anything past these marks, so some profit taking should be going on with reversal in mind as all the bulls go running for the hills on EUR. Right now positions look still widely open though. US session should change that, especially with the weekend ahead.

Equity markets playing hard on the USD, but nothing that hasnt been expected for the last week about.

AUD Im still the same - Im long taking partial at .9650 area with ultimate target at .9750 area. JPY - keeping the short open until I see signs of anything otherwise.
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