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  • #721
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:49am Jun 26, 2008 7:49am
Quoting lesterthecat
Hi All,
Having asked a couple of questions I have jumped in and made a few trades. Probably around 50/50 so some work to do to really understand and identify those 'no brainers'. I thought I was looking good for usdchf long at 10303 but this has been stopped out. Anyone else thought this was a good level?
I did too, but must have had a larger SL as I'm still in, but not feeling so hot about it anymore.
  • #722
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:54am Jun 26, 2008 7:54am
Quoting lesterthecat
Hi All,
Having asked a couple of questions I have jumped in and made a few trades. Probably around 50/50 so some work to do to really understand and identify those 'no brainers'. I thought I was looking good for usdchf long at 10303 but this has been stopped out. Anyone else thought this was a good level?
Hi Lester - no not wrong but maybe a little premature, thats all.....the level you chose was a good one, and for the right reasons, but in situations like these lately it is overall hard to judge which levels are going to hold and which ones are not. Consolidated markets are some of the hardest to trade, because its difficult to distinguish which levels will hold and which levels will not. CHF is very much correlated with EUR....using market sentiment can be your better bets in times like these.
  • #723
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:55am Jun 26, 2008 7:55am
Quoting finswin56
I did too, but must have had a larger SL as I'm still in, but not feeling so hot about it anymore.
Im long USDCHF right now.....It might bunch up for a little bit but also we have news coming out this morning heads up. The move down in the "normal" market, ex the news, seems to be temporarily over on this pair, ready for consolidation or reversal.
  • #724
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:58am Jun 26, 2008 7:58am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Im long USDCHF right now.....It might bunch up for a little bit but also we have news coming out this morning heads up. The move down in the "normal" market, ex the news, seems to be temporarily over on this pair, ready for consolidation or reversal.
Makes me feel better knowing that. I was expecting to get stopped out with the early news, and I'm a bit worried about the housing coming up in an hour too.

BTW, I've got my SL around 1.0265. Is that close to how you approach it? I know you've said you look for the next S/R levels.
  • #725
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:01am Jun 26, 2008 8:01am
Quoting finswin56
Makes me feel better knowing that. I was expecting to get stopped out with the early news, and I'm a bit worried about the housing coming up in an hour too.

BTW, I've got my SL around 1.0265. Is that close to how you approach it? I know you've said you look for the next S/R levels.
Actually you're going to hate me but I just missed something. I think we might get another push into those lows if EUR climbs higher, which I believe it will. Might be another chance to go long at a better price. I just closed my long on CHF at around breakeven because of this.
  • #726
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:14am Jun 26, 2008 8:14am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Lester - no not wrong but maybe a little premature, thats all.....the level you chose was a good one, and for the right reasons, but in situations like these lately it is overall hard to judge which levels are going to hold and which ones are not. Consolidated markets are some of the hardest to trade, because its difficult to distinguish which levels will hold and which levels will not. CHF is very much correlated with EUR....using market sentiment can be your better bets in times like these.
Hi BRV, thanks for the feedback. I definately do not want to be spoon fed anything but it is really useful to bounce thoughts off the more experienced on this forum.
  • #727
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:25am Jun 26, 2008 8:25am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Actually you're going to hate me but I just missed something. I think we might get another push into those lows if EUR climbs higher, which I believe it will. Mioght be another chance to go long at a better price.
lol, sounds about right for me today. I'm in pretty good right now as I re-bought at the lows before the news.

So the next level down (at least to my eye) seems to be 1.230-1.0215 area. From there I don't see anything until the 1.0160's.

Seems I/we may be a bit premature. I'm convinced that the housing news will further drive down the USD as it seems the only good US news is no news right now. Expectations are for an increase, which is a bit scary.

Now I'm trying to decide whether to hold my current sl, or bring it down below the next level and buy again there for a longer hold. ugh
  • #728
  • Jun 26, 2008 8:56am Jun 26, 2008 8:56am
Quoting finswin56
lol, sounds about right for me today. I'm in pretty good right now as I re-bought at the lows before the news.

So the next level down (at least to my eye) seems to be 1.230-1.0215 area. From there I don't see anything until the 1.0160's.

Seems I/we may be a bit premature. I'm convinced that the housing news will further drive down the USD as it seems the only good US news is no news right now. Expectations are for an increase, which is a bit scary.

Now I'm trying to decide whether to hold my current sl, or bring it down below the next level and buy again there for a longer hold. ugh
Actually, this brings up a question of mine. How do you approach positions you are currently in when a news event of some importance is coming up? Today the US markets are getting beat up, early news was disappointing, and the dollar softened after the FOMC yesterday.

On a day like that, would you consider moving your stops close to the current prenews prices on the chance that a bad housing report could solidify a negative dollar day?
  • #729
  • Edited 9:13am Jun 26, 2008 9:02am | Edited 9:13am
Salvation! I'm wrong so often (thinking they'd miss expectations this time) that I should start a thread with my calls just so everyone could go against me.

Hopefully this 2% increase will stop the bleeding.

EDIT: Ha at me. Good housing numbers results in 20 decline... and counting.
  • #730
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:21pm Jun 26, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting Iron-man
I am short now and if it pushes up to 169.70 I will add on. If it breaks above there then I will re evaluate
Over a +100 pips on this today....well done!
  • #731
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:25pm Jun 26, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Thanks Ironman! I have been a little quiet in here these last couple of weeks due to the vacation and the other obligations, but thanks everybody for keeping this going.

I sent this out to some others earlier, but though I would post it here. Re: EUR/JPY: that area around 169.70 is definitely a good place to be looking at next. The next strongest hold to the upside (even though its a ways away) is the 171.00 to 171.20 area, preferrably closest to the topside, where the strongest resistance is.

EUR/USD, I see buying pressure into the 1.5700's, but after that it fades away dramatically. So into the 1.5700's I'm generally looking for shorts and a move then downwards back to 1.5500 area, ex any news. I don't see 1.5800 as a reasonable price target for longs in the next few days, but that again of course could change due to any number of factors.
In the 1.5700's we have the following as potential short areas:
1.5700 itself, 1.5734 and 1.5765 and 1.5792,5800 ish. Of those 3, 1.5734 looking the strongest historically, with 1.5765 proposing a decent outcome.

USD/JPY is looking great sentiment to the downside right now, how far will depend on the volume and interest for shorts. There is a big line of resistance at 106.35, and of course the weekly low at 107.12, though going long there would only be a scalp for me, 106.35 being more pips, then 105.60.

With a pair like EUR/JPY, it has the ability to influence the other pairs dramatically. EUR volume will be more than JPY for the time being, possibly seeing another push into the areas described above before a downfall, but with sentiment factors lining up as they are, it would mean an overall near-term decline in EUR/JPY, provided its technical levels pan out as well.

AUD is one more I'm watching closely; the high at .9650 is going to see some action again, but I dont think it is going to live long. The quick recovery from the spike down indicates the long term trend is still very much intact. I wouldnt be surprised to see a break of these highs as far as 0.9750 anytime soon. In the range it is now, I'm overall looking for longs on pullbacks.

Looking for some no brainers. Let you guys know.

And I hate to say I was right about these kids but.................JPY plummeted as expected and EUR made its move upwards; right now bouncing off of 1.5765 resistance on the nose. AUD is going to take some patience, but outlook still the same.

By any definition it was a rockstar day for me. Thank you market sentiment. Party on Wayne.
  • #732
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:48pm Jun 26, 2008 3:48pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
And I hate to say I was right about these kids but.................JPY plummeted as expected and EUR made its move upwards; right now bouncing off of 1.5765 resistance on the nose. AUD is going to take some patience, but outlook still the same.

By any definition it was a rockstar day for me. Thank you market sentiment. Party on Wayne.
BRV, Please give me a definition of market sentiment. Is this a webpage or chart?
jtdt777
Balance in Everything
  • #733
  • Jun 26, 2008 7:24pm Jun 26, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting jtdt777
BRV, Please give me a definition of market sentiment. Is this a webpage or chart?
jtdt777
I don't know about BRV, but the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all got whacked and it started before the opening bell. Meanwhile the 10 yr bond and Oil had very nice growth.

That's about as bearish as it gets for the USD, and I was still long on USD/CHF... stupid is as stupid does.
  • #734
  • Jun 27, 2008 1:10am Jun 27, 2008 1:10am
Quoting finswin56
That's about as bearish as it gets for the USD, and I was still long on USD/CHF... stupid is as stupid does.
At least you were not alone.

It refused to retrace.
  • #735
  • Jun 27, 2008 1:19am Jun 27, 2008 1:19am
Quoting jtdt777
BRV, Please give me a definition of market sentiment. Is this a webpage or chart?
jtdt777
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketsentiment.asp
  • #736
  • Jun 27, 2008 1:38am Jun 27, 2008 1:38am
Quoting finswin56
I don't know about BRV, but the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all got whacked and it started before the opening bell. Meanwhile the 10 yr bond and Oil had very nice growth.

That's about as bearish as it gets for the USD, and I was still long on USD/CHF... stupid is as stupid does.

Tell me about it, yesterday was a fiasco for me.

I closed MANUALLY my short EJ position with pips in the red, but in hindsight my original S/L would have never been touched and I'd be in the green now.

My GJ sell order at 213.95 did not get triggered by 4 pips. (Though another sell order I placed at 212.83, a s/r and .50 level from the last wave down, got triggerd overnight and is a few pips in the green now)

Another GBPUSD short got knocked out because a s/r level didn't hold...and a few others that are too shameful to mention.

All in all I feel rough man.

Looks like I'm so close yet so far and the line between losing and winning is a thin one.
Let me better make sure to make my way over to the winning side.
But I'll call it a week and wont take any more trades today.

Congrats to Billy Ray, you are an inspiration man.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #737
  • Jun 27, 2008 2:01am Jun 27, 2008 2:01am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Tell me about it, yesterday was a fiasco for me.

I closed MANUALLY my short EJ position with pips in the red, but in hindsight my original S/L would have never been touched and I'd be in the green now.

My GJ sell order at 213.95 did not get triggered by 4 pips. (Though another sell order I placed at 212.83, a s/r and .50 level from the last wave down, got triggerd overnight and is a few pips in the green now)

Another GBPUSD short got knocked out because a s/r level didn't hold...and a few others that are too shameful to mention.

All in all I feel rough man.

Looks like I'm so close yet so far and the line between losing and winning is a thin one.
Let me better make sure to make my way over to the winning side.
But I'll call it a week and wont take any more trades today.

Congrats to Billy Ray, you are an inspiration man.
Right. The point is though that your winners will be far bigger than your losers and thus make you overall profitable, regardless of whether only one out of every five trades is actually a winner.

If your positions are insignificant to begin with, then you really stand nothign to lose from a trade gone wrong. A trade in profit however...well then you've made some money at a risk not worth even discussing. The beauty of forex.

Don't sweat it. Your calls have been great from what I've read, you're going to be successful
  • #738
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:10am Jun 27, 2008 3:10am
Quoting finswin56
That would be very comforting.


Okay, this USD/JPY trend has me hooked. I've "refined" it a bit more, hopefully not ruining it in the process.

This is a trade I have to take, simply because I'm tired of watching good trades from the sidelines, and this is pretty much as good as I can do at this point. I'm going to scale into it at 105.84 and 105.72. I do wonder if this range is too wide though. My other worries are tomorrow's news and that red line. Wondering if it will keep price from hitting my longs, or if it'll just be short term R. It certainly was a tough level on two recent occasions.
Should the dollar continue its bearish move, would these levels still look good to go long?
  • #739
  • Edited 4:10am Jun 27, 2008 3:58am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting finswin56
Should the dollar continue its bearish move, would these levels still look good to go long?
Hello hello hello - ok so EUR 65 level paid some pips, about 40-something, and the dollar crushing is obviously continuing tonight. The only one I left anything open on was my short USD/JPY trade and long AUD/USD.

The way things are moving now Im looking for a bunch up on EUR, maybe a push a little higher into the 1.5800's looking at tonights numbers. 1.5817 area is the monthly high, wuth resistance as low as 1.5800, so that's going to be looked at. 1.5841 is the major retracement level, so that will get some attention as well. Ultimately, strategy still the same....looking for the best short.

Same situation in reverse for USD/CHF.

There isn't a lot of built up hype around anything past these marks, so some profit taking should be going on with reversal in mind as all the bulls go running for the hills on EUR. Right now positions look still widely open though. US session should change that, especially with the weekend ahead.

Equity markets playing hard on the USD, but nothing that hasnt been expected for the last week about.

AUD Im still the same - Im long taking partial at .9650 area with ultimate target at .9750 area. JPY - keeping the short open until I see signs of anything otherwise.
  • #740
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:08am Jun 27, 2008 4:08am
Quoting finswin56
Actually, this brings up a question of mine. How do you approach positions you are currently in when a news event of some importance is coming up? Today the US markets are getting beat up, early news was disappointing, and the dollar softened after the FOMC yesterday.

On a day like that, would you consider moving your stops close to the current prenews prices on the chance that a bad housing report could solidify a negative dollar day?
Depends on a few things:

-how in the money I am
-severity of the news report
-overall market bias

If Im deep in the money I might just move my sl to breakeven, if the news isnt expected to shake things too dramatically. Taking partial profits never hurts. The news event might not prove to be anything to dramatic if other more important events are taking place. Protection is probably the most important factor above all though. Just make sure not to give back what you have based on any types of hunches; be objective.
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