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  • #3,061
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:11am Jun 26, 2008 2:11am
Hi,
Following jarroo's post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3035, I've finally understood that according to jarroo / PC, a day can up or down, depending on the previous days line. it can't be both. so actually, on a day/pair, you can take trades on just one direction.
IE, if the day before yesterday's close (1.1000) was lower than yesterday's close (1.150), the trend is up, so today we can take long trades only. (once they are above the open line).
In order to check the trend's strength, I checked the angle's degree between yesterdays and todays line. here are the results:
EU - up 27, GU - up 15, Uch - down 23, UJ -up 7, GJ - up 20
Todays strongest are EU, Uch & GJ.
What do you think?
Dani M.
  • #3,062
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:12am Jun 26, 2008 2:12am
thx a lot everyone for sharing.
  • #3,063
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:22am Jun 26, 2008 2:22am
Don't know if I'm d only one havin these issues, but I came 2 trade this morning expectin d dollar 2 fall, after d FOMC of yesterday.

It's clouding my DIBS decisions today....

Someone plz administer me a knock on d head... guess I need 2 learn 2 flow with d markets...
...learning Wisdom!!!
  • #3,064
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:26am Jun 26, 2008 2:26am
Quoting steiniteer
Don't know if I'm d only one havin these issues, but I came 2 trade this morning expectin d dollar 2 fall, after d FOMC of yesterday.

It's clouding my DIBS decisions today....

Someone plz administer me a knock on d head... guess I need 2 learn 2 flow with d markets...
Hi Steineteer, just follow what the charts tell you
  • #3,065
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:37am Jun 26, 2008 2:37am
Let go of your expection of what the market will do, and trade what it actually does.

You can do it


Best
Regards

Dale
  • #3,066
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:39am Jun 26, 2008 2:39am
For those of you struggling with the concept of trend here are 2 things you can do. Draw a trend line from the opening price of the previous day to the opening price of the current day. By opening price I mean the opening price for the DIBs day not 00:00 GMT. Now is the line going up, down or horizontal? There's your answer. The other simple thing you can do is to draw a horizontal line at the opening price for each DIBs day and see if the current days opening price for the horizontal line is above or below the previous days opening price. Look at points A, B and C. Are they up or down?

I hope this helps some of you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend t4.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #3,067
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:45am Jun 26, 2008 2:45am
Quoting dan_mir
I've finally understood that according to jarroo / PC, a day can up or down, depending on the previous days line. it can't be both. so actually, on a day/pair, you can take trades on just one direction.
IE, if the day before yesterday's close (1.1000) was lower than yesterday's close (1.150), the trend is up, so today we can take long trades only. (once they are above the open line).
In order to check the trend's strength, I checked the angle's degree between yesterdays and todays line. here are the results:
EU - up 27, GU - up 15, Uch - down 23, UJ -up 7, GJ - up 20
Todays strongest are EU, Uch & GJ.
What do you think?
Dani M.
Thanks Dani - That's how I understand it. Look at the close 24 hrs before the current open. How did you arrive at the 'strength' values for each pair? My long GU was taken out but I see it has now gone back above original the IB high. Likewise my short UC was stopped out.
  • #3,068
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:47am Jun 26, 2008 2:47am
Quoting Trumpcard
this is exactly what happens to most good threads here. Then one day when someone like PC stumbles our way, guess what? day in, day out same old questions (nothing wrong with asking questions except when it's been asked 10 million times before) and then the PCs get fed up and disappear.

ps: Jaroo, are we using the 5am or 6 am candle as the day's open?

I'm using the 0100 EST candle as the day's Open.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #3,069
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:56am Jun 26, 2008 2:56am
Quoting jarroo
I'm using the 0100 EST candle as the day's Open.
I was being tongue in cheek!
  • #3,070
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:57am Jun 26, 2008 2:57am
Quoting candyman
Thanks Dani - That's how I understand it. Look at the close 24 hrs before the current open. How did you arrive at the 'strength' values for each pair?
Hi candyman,
In MT4 there is a "trendline by angle" tool. I use it to measure the angle between the daily open lines.
BR
Dani M.
  • #3,071
  • Jun 26, 2008 2:59am Jun 26, 2008 2:59am
Any DIBS today? i dont see any
and what about trading a day after the FOMC and the big move in the end of the day? do you trade the same way even though the hours of the FOMC supposed to be sideways but made a big move?
  • #3,072
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:02am Jun 26, 2008 3:02am
Quoting jarroo
I'm using the 0100 EST candle as the day's Open.
Oh sorry . . I get it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #3,073
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:10am Jun 26, 2008 3:10am
Quoting dan_mir
Hi candyman,
In MT4 there is a "trendline by angle" tool. I use it to measure the angle between the daily open lines.
BR
Dani M.
Ahh...found it. Cheers Dani.
  • #3,074
  • Jun 26, 2008 3:42am Jun 26, 2008 3:42am
Quoting jarroo
Stopped out at a -14 pips loss. Stop and reverse . . now long at 108.04.
Stopped out again for -14 pips. That's 28 pips loss today on the Usd/Jpy.

" . . momma said there'll be days like, there'll be days like this . . momma said . ."
Shirelles (1963)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #3,075
  • Edited 4:39am Jun 26, 2008 4:06am | Edited 4:39am
Now there is one less trade between you and a winner
  • #3,076
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:06am Jun 26, 2008 4:06am
Jarroo, I feel you man. Been stopped out twice for 20 pips or so at a time this week alone on UsdJpy, my first two dibs trades, and both losses.

Guess I just have to hold in.
  • #3,077
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:08am Jun 26, 2008 4:08am
Hello Dale,

In post #3059, you mentioned some filter concepts that are working great for you.

Could you please elaborate further on these concepts?

Thanks.

Niyi1000
  • #3,078
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:10am Jun 26, 2008 4:10am
I feel battered. Took swing losses yesterday, being stopped out today.

God please, I need a good DIBS setup real soon...
...learning Wisdom!!!
  • #3,079
  • Edited 4:29am Jun 26, 2008 4:17am | Edited 4:29am
In the pit the first thing you learn--- when you are ready to actually make money..., and stop the bleeding, is:

  1. Only be willing to buy a market if it is up on the day.
  2. Only be willing to sell a market if it is down on the day.

Obviously, it would logically follow that the currencies which are up more are better buys and the ones down more are the better shorts. So basically, if you get a buy setup forming on two strong currencies, take the trade on the one up most on the day.I

This actually means that you never go short a currency unless it is "down" relative to yesterday's close; or go long for any reason unless the market is "up" on the day.

Review for yourself how many large losses you could've eliminated from your past trades if you followed these rules. At the same time, I am certain you would have eliminated very few of your biggest winners by doing this.

Think about this for a while. I have for decades. The power of this simple concept still amazes me.



I am filtering my own trade based on PC's concepts above:


My own trade set up and entries have been under devolpment for many years, so I have a great deal of confidence in them, how they should devolop in time & price and how to manage them.

You could easily go through the same process by backtrading and demo trading the inside bar trades; PC mentions using weekly charts, ect. Experiment with different ways of trade management, ect.

Best regards

Dale

  • #3,080
  • Jun 26, 2008 4:32am Jun 26, 2008 4:32am
hehe Jaroo.. today's market is like crap.. uppppp downnn uppp downnnn.. i guess its time to close the shop and live to fight another day lol..
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