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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,961
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:42am Jun 25, 2008 4:42am
Quoting ThePipAholic
Hi there Futs - do you scalp in both directions or only with the trend?

Yea mate, both ways when it's sideways chop. Flirting with danger when the market is moving and trading against the trend.

Divergence is still a good method to use in a trend to find the end of retracements and a change in the trend.

Divergence is king, so damn accurate when the market is going nowhere. Works pretty well at all times actually. Since emda and Scrat showed me the light, I have had very few losses and a heap of superb winners.
  • #8,962
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:44am Jun 25, 2008 4:44am
Date: 2008/06/25Time: 10:14 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.99Pivot: 108.151st sup.107.652nd sup.107.353rd sup.1071st res.108.152nd res.108.453rd res.108.6Title: USD/JPY intraday: Key ST resistance at 108.15.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 108.15

Our preference: Short positions below 108.15 with targets @ 107.65 & 107.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 108.15 look for further upside with 108.45 & 108.6 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 108.15.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0625101432.GIF
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  • #8,963
  • Jun 25, 2008 4:52am Jun 25, 2008 4:52am
Strong support prob in the 108.30 area..
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  • #8,964
  • Jun 25, 2008 5:14am Jun 25, 2008 5:14am
my technical analize
if we break 108.05-108.10 we'll go to 108.45
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  • #8,965
  • Jun 25, 2008 6:51am Jun 25, 2008 6:51am
The 23.6% fib channel line has held over the last 3 days... I would expect that, if we can cleanly breach the 108.30 area, that we'll see a test of 109 in the next couple of days. On the reverse side, if PA tests the 23% area again, I will look for a low around the 107.40 area.

_
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  • #8,966
  • Edited 7:49am Jun 25, 2008 7:47am | Edited 7:49am
Charts Charts and More Charts

http://www.mataf.net/en/forex-usdjpy...aign_Alert_Ame

updated analysis since 20 min.


USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

Short term (Intraday)

107,96. There is an horizontal range between 107,70 and 108,00. Support and resistance are given by Bollinger bands. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The price should continue to move in 107,70 / 108,20 range. We won't take a position.






Resistances 108,20 - 108,60 Supports 107,70 - 107,10 Long term chart USD/JPY - Dollar Yenupdated 25 juin 2008 12:21 GMT

http://www.mataf.net/section/devises...ges/usdjpy.png
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  • #8,967
  • Edited 9:24am Jun 25, 2008 8:44am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting tullid
The 23.6% fib channel line has held over the last 3 days... I would expect that, if we can cleanly breach the 108.30 area, that we'll see a test of 109 in the next couple of days. On the reverse side, if PA tests the 23% area again, I will look for a low around the 107.40 area.

_

It's quite ironic that I came across your post displaying parallel fib channels. I've recenty became interested in them but I don't have a tool to draw them on my charts (Accucharts) so I have to simulate them the best I can with pitchforks and channel lines, but the ratios aren't the same. Which charting software do you use to draw them? I think they can be of great value.
  • #8,968
  • Jun 25, 2008 9:24am Jun 25, 2008 9:24am
Quoting southernmind
It's quite ironic that I came across your post displaying horizontal fib channels. I've recenty became interested in them but I don't have a tool to draw them on my charts (Accucharts) so I have to simulate them the best I can with pitchforks and channel lines, but the ratios aren't the same. Which charting software do you use to draw them? I think they can be of great value.

I set up a demo acct w/ Alpari UK and use Metatrader to show the fib channel on the daily chart. I can post a template file for it later tonight EST.

The hardest part @ setting up the fib channel is knowing where to plot the high/low of the channel. I've been using them for six months now and still have a long way to go in learning , but like you said they can be of great value. I have noticed that once PA hits one the fib extensions, that particular fib channel is complete. It then sets up a new channel, whether in the same direction or a reversal. This can take several days to a week or two to properly set up.
  • #8,969
  • Jun 25, 2008 11:26am Jun 25, 2008 11:26am
Quoting Jerry
my technical analize
if we break 108.05-108.10 we'll go to 108.45
Fuc*ito.. bad job jerry bad job i didnt go long on reversal @ 107.85...
i'm still shitty trader
  • #8,970
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:00pm Jun 25, 2008 12:00pm
Hello Dana are you out there and waiting for (News) my friend??
  • #8,971
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:06pm Jun 25, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting Jerry
Fuc*ito.. bad job jerry bad job i didnt go long on reversal @ 107.85...
i'm still shitty trader
The EUR/JPY going to 168.72 brought the USD/JPY up.. This is not a normal FX trading day. It still needs to get over 108.45 and 108.60 and it just might. The Oil being sent down and Gold being hit is sending the Yield Up on the USA 2 Year US Bonds as they are SOLD along with the other US Bonds so the MONEY is GOING into CASH waiting to come back in when the Coast is Clear !!!


Is This Clear ? Give Yourself some Slack !
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  • #8,972
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:21pm Jun 25, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Dove,

Thanks,

One more thing... <grin>

I read thru the thread, and as it sounds to me, you look for the double (or M) top.. with the pivot point.. what does the crossing of the P and M have to do with the whole thing?
I understand the whole "double top" thing, and where to enter th etrade etc, but what does the crossing of the P and M indicate to you.
It sounds like you are using the 30 minute or 1 hour chart?

I read thru the thread and didn't see any explanation of it, only that it was some sort of indication to influence your trade. (I may of missed it, for that I must apologize for asking you to repete yourself, but I have read sooo much, I could bestanding on my head and I would not know it!)

Best regards and much appreciation for your help .

Bristol
Dove,

It also looks like the P and M indicators show the exact same thing..? DO I have it wrong?

Bristol
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #8,973
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:27pm Jun 25, 2008 12:27pm
I use FIBs a lot in my trading. Just thought I would throw this weekly UJ out there to hear your thoughts.

We have been right on this 38% line, apparently waiting for 2:15pm today.


Many pips!
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  • #8,974
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:42pm Jun 25, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting Mrpipmaster
Hello Dana are you out there and waiting for (News) my friend??
Hello Billy - yep, I am waiting and been looking at the upper time frames and notice that the monthly pivot has already broken the R2 at the 107.94 and the R3 is at the 110.04....... need not to say any more.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,975
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:45pm Jun 25, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Dove,

It also looks like the P and M indicators show the exact same thing..? DO I have it wrong?

Bristol
You lost me - what do you mean exact same thing?
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,976
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:58pm Jun 25, 2008 12:58pm
if the FOMC release go as talked about.....we could easily see 109.07 before close today....now is the time to set back and wait...and scalp alittle here and there. while we wait...

Quoting dove_alliance
Hello Billy - yep, I am waiting and been looking at the upper time frames and notice that the monthly pivot has already broken the R2 at the 107.94 and the R3 is at the 110.04....... need not to say any more.
  • #8,977
  • Jun 25, 2008 1:01pm Jun 25, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting Mrpipmaster
if the FOMC release go as talked about.....we could easily see 109.07 before close today....now is the time to set back and wait...and scalp alittle here and there. while we wait...
It will be interesting.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,978
  • Jun 25, 2008 1:02pm Jun 25, 2008 1:02pm
Opened a scalp back up at the 108.28 area against the trend which i know you hate....but u know i live on the edge....i went ahead and closed it at the 108.15 looking for 10 pips.....13 minutes and counting....let see what happens here....
  • #8,979
  • Jun 25, 2008 1:07pm Jun 25, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting Mrpipmaster
Opened a scalp back up at the 108.28 area against the trend which i know you hate....but u know i live on the edge....i went ahead and closed it at the 108.15 looking for 10 pips.....13 minutes and counting....let see what happens here....
Not quite as good as yours - but got in on 108.22 to 108.16
  • #8,980
  • Jun 25, 2008 1:10pm Jun 25, 2008 1:10pm
long in 108.22
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