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Lets talk USDCAD

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 27, 2005 2:44am Aug 27, 2005 2:44am
There are some signals confirming USD strength. On the daily chart occured something like divergence. Besides major trend is downside (besides fundamentally CAD is commodity currency which is usually driven by oil), I think there will be small rally. Now rate reached 38 fib and if it is not reversal point then I think It will go to EMA which is at 50 fib. this point is supposed to be clear resistance. Also here occured "hammer" or more like "morning star" but it has already done its job as rate went up.
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kiss the trend
  • #2
  • Aug 28, 2005 11:27pm Aug 28, 2005 11:27pm
Well as oil went to record, And there opened a "window" on USD/CAD chart I did not enter long.
kiss the trend
  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2005 10:51am Sep 14, 2005 10:51am
Who is happy with me? who did catch nice pin bar? Besides, fundamental data helped USD (canada's data)
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kiss the trend
  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2005 1:08pm Sep 14, 2005 1:08pm
Quoting fx-trader777
Who is happy with me? who did catch nice pin bar? Besides, fundamental data helped USD (canada's data)
yep and a better one three bars before
  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2005 5:37pm Sep 14, 2005 5:37pm
Hi,

I think that the pin bar trade would be in the negative now, unless you took a small profit or moved your stop to breakeven.

I think a better/safer trade would've been to go short ater the DBHLC since the price is below the MA365.

Just my thoughts. Any views/objections welcome.
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ntid=825&stc=1
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Keeping it Simple
  • #6
  • Sep 14, 2005 6:18pm Sep 14, 2005 6:18pm
you guys keep something in mind. these price action bars do work on intraday charts but you dont know by how much. may be 10 pips may be 50 pips or more. the best way to play them are on daily and weekly charts and use them to let you know what direction the market is going to fine tune your intraday systems. food for thought. jim
  • #7
  • Sep 15, 2005 3:26am Sep 15, 2005 3:26am
Thanx for the advice Jim,

Looking at the current situation on the charts, my trade would've been stopped out. Here the "moving stops to breakeven" advice would've saved your capital.

Thanx again Jim, alway learning sumtin' nu.

Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #8
  • Sep 26, 2005 10:57am Sep 26, 2005 10:57am
Hey happy traders. Here's a 4hr pin I picked up on today. The Monthly, Weekly, and Daily are all in a downtrend, so it looked good to me. The only problem I'm having with the 4 hour pins and double high/lows is a good one, when to get out. Anyone have suggestions? Pipmon
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LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #9
  • Sep 26, 2005 2:15pm Sep 26, 2005 2:15pm
That was a very good one PipMonster. Don't know whether this is one of those "A trades" that Jim talks about though. The Pin Bar came off of a 61.8 fibo, a MA89, a trendline resistance, and, a R2 pivot wasn't far off either (1.1787).

Looks like we've got the same problem - when to exit? The advice I got from others on this forum was to open more than 1 lot, then you can close a few lots when you're in profit and move your stop to breakeven for the remaining lots.

Happy trading
Habeeb

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1029&stc=1
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Keeping it Simple
  • #10
  • Edited 2:35pm Sep 26, 2005 2:29pm | Edited 2:35pm
Thanks Habeeb, I know it wasn't an A trade but I'm guessin it was probably a solid B. I was kind of hoping it would head to the lows of last week. I already got rid of 3/4 of the position and am waiting to see what happens. I always have a hard time going a whole day without making a trade and this was the closest to an A trade that I found. Maybe shouldn't have taken it, but it sure looks good now. Pipmon

It also may be heading for a daily pin bar. I have my stop set just above fridays high.
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #11
  • Sep 27, 2005 3:45am Sep 27, 2005 3:45am
Looks like the bottom trendline has been good support to alot of Pin Bar setups. Let's hope it continues. My only worry about the current one forming, is the 38 Fibo. It has been a good resistance.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1033&stc=1
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Keeping it Simple
  • #12
  • Oct 5, 2005 10:28am Oct 5, 2005 10:28am
No charts, but anyone check this one out? Triple weekly top. Double 4hr and triple hourly. Looks like a real good short to me.

The only thing is there's no fibo's. Don't know if you have confluence on price action alone.
Pipmon
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #13
  • Oct 16, 2005 2:54pm Oct 16, 2005 2:54pm
Is not it too much collapse? This is monthly chart.

Interest Rate differencial widens while USD/CAD callapses due to oil price rally.

For Sure we will see correction. But question is when?
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kiss the trend
  • #14
  • Oct 17, 2005 1:17pm Oct 17, 2005 1:17pm
Is this Head&shoulders? on an hourly chart.
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kiss the trend
  • #15
  • Oct 20, 2005 2:14pm Oct 20, 2005 2:14pm
IS not it nice pin? I am afraid of BOC's statments (BOC's Dodge says he sees some need for further US dollar depreciation; says CAD has already apprecaited considerably, so this may mute the impact on USD./CAD downside).

what do you think?
The weekly chart shows that USD/CAD move deccelerated and reversal is near.
Oil going down slowly, oil inventory data rose, FED maintains hawkish tone. I am only affraid such dovish comments coming from BOC or I would have gone long.

Any comments?

Canadas Export boosted due to oil price rally.
I remember I studied real exchange rate in macroeconomy. RER = 1/NEM *I1/I2
RER - Real exchange rate
Nem - nominal exchange rate (it is 1/nem because of USD/CAD quote)
I1 - price index in Canada
I2 - price index in US
and I have learned that Export is supported/discouraged with change of real exchange rate rather than nominal. So if we consider only crude oil in Canada's basket of goods and oil's share in exports we will see that nominally strong CAD does not discourage oil exports. So dovish comments about USD/CAD from BOC is quite relevant. (Here could be done good macro research)

I am going to look USD/CAD carafully (together with oil price)

thanks
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kiss the trend
  • #16
  • Oct 20, 2005 4:33pm Oct 20, 2005 4:33pm
Quoting fx-trader777
IS not it nice pin? I am afraid of BOC's statments (BOC's Dodge says he sees some need for further US dollar depreciation; says CAD has already apprecaited considerably, so this may mute the impact on USD./CAD downside).

what do you think?
The weekly chart shows that USD/CAD move deccelerated and reversal is near.
Oil going down slowly, oil inventory data rose, FED maintains hawkish tone. I am only affraid such dovish comments coming from BOC or I would have gone long.

Any comments?

Canadas Export boosted due to oil price rally.
I remember I studied real exchange rate in macroeconomy. RER = 1/NEM *I1/I2
RER - Real exchange rate
Nem - nominal exchange rate (it is 1/nem because of USD/CAD quote)
I1 - price index in Canada
I2 - price index in US
and I have learned that Export is supported/discouraged with change of real exchange rate rather than nominal. So if we consider only crude oil in Canada's basket of goods and oil's share in exports we will see that nominally strong CAD does not discourage oil exports. So dovish comments about USD/CAD from BOC is quite relevant. (Here could be done good macro research)

I am going to look USD/CAD carafully (together with oil price)

thanks
cad drives me nuts. i dont play pin bars on hourly charts very often but there was a nice one late last night on the hourly right off of the 365 ema. took it on a break and woke up early this morning to find myself up 50 pips. pulled my stop to breakeven and it turned on a dime and shot right up. this pair has always been tough for me. anyone else. jim
  • #17
  • Oct 20, 2005 7:32pm Oct 20, 2005 7:32pm
Quoting james16
cad drives me nuts. i dont play pin bars on hourly charts very often but there was a nice one late last night on the hourly right off of the 365 ema. took it on a break and woke up early this morning to find myself up 50 pips. pulled my stop to breakeven and it turned on a dime and shot right up. this pair has always been tough for me. anyone else. jim
The only thing that I can say about this pair is that it is CRAZY..lol...

Thanks,

Nader
  • #18
  • Oct 21, 2005 2:23am Oct 21, 2005 2:23am
Quoting narafa
The only thing that I can say about this pair is that it is CRAZY..lol...

Thanks,

Nader
I was analyzing the correlation between oil and USD/CAD. The fact is evident. It is commodity currency and influenced by fundamental factors.

This will be good to trade correction. 1990 low 1.11.
Only thing that worries me is BOC's desire USD/CAD to move lower.
kiss the trend
  • #19
  • Edited Oct 26, 2005 6:57am Oct 25, 2005 5:51am | Edited Oct 26, 2005 6:57am
USDCAD 25th october 7 am EST.

Pin bar on the daily that has topped out right about a long term down channel and top bolinger bands.

Also, it's formed at the top of the ascending channel on the 4H chart and barely 15 pips shy of the weekly R1 pivot.

Perhaps a good short opportunity?
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  • #20
  • Edited 6:56am Oct 26, 2005 6:49am | Edited 6:56am
Well, that short move within the channel played out perfectly: +80 pips in few hours.
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