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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,681
  • Jun 24, 2008 9:18am Jun 24, 2008 9:18am
HELLO . I am sure almost everyone on this forum can relate your post. It is unbelievably true that every single word that you wrote down seemed like i was writing them. you will get very similar response from everyone here. that it is all part of your growth as a successful trader. The key is not to give up. and the question is that how badly do you want to become a success. I recently heard a qoute from a friend
"LUCK IS WHEN OPPORTUNITY MEETS PREPARATION"
I have been working on a very simple factor. When i see a setup and i am present i take it( TCs Only. ) i have not had a trade on 4 hour all week last week and none this week so far. the set up was there but i was not present. That is why i worked on learning the 5 minute system to keep me going .
Market has been tough recently because it is ranging. It is a very tricky thing to understand that this strategy keeps you out of bad trades.
First thing your brain tells you.
" so whats the point if i will not be trading. look at the 100's of pips the market is moving while i sit on my hands. If only i had entered i would be up X amount of pips , what a failure i am ....on and on and on"
but the important thing is that the market can move in any direction. Our job is to CHOOSE THE SET UPS that are most logical to trade and acceptable by our brains and do not hesitate to enter when they show up. It is like training ones brain to react to a set up when you see it. and be ready with a plan to execute it as in take profit and manage loss.
Phillip has been stressing on everyone to have a short term strategy becasue when market is ranging it keeps you going. Do not give up. Trading like any other profession takes time. and your time will come too. Hopefully mine too some day soon !!!.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #15,682
  • Jun 24, 2008 9:49am Jun 24, 2008 9:49am
Hi to all.
I see signal long EU today,MACD4h RB??? come to zero line and confirm by bad news in US.Well.30pips quiz
But I think not trong trend.
15627-15653 is R1 today.
Vietnamese Trader.G day and G trade
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  • #15,683
  • Jun 24, 2008 11:00am Jun 24, 2008 11:00am
I know how it feels, and to be honest, THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST!!!!!

I have been following this system for 7 months now. I have read all of Palmer's (thank you Palmer) hard work on the fxtradeblog website many times over. I have read through this thread, entirely. I never miss a day looking at the markets and watching them play out. I try to never miss a 4 hour bar, and I go through and compare posted trades here to the market.

After all this work, I am still down. I would be REALLY down, if I was not trading like .25% (max) of my account.

This system is tough, it is REAL tough. The reason it is tough, is because there are no set rules. Getting the rythem down is a lot easier said than done. And due to physchological reasons, you miss just once, you feel like you have gotten WAY off course.

I do know I can get it down, and I will not give up. I study this, along with the 5 minute thread by Philliip (studying this thread allows me to see the rythem a little better), and Price Action (RyanMCD recommended a combintation of PA and Phillip's system).

Don't give up. I think one problem is that people only post their wins here. Phillip posts the few loses he has (the man is a trading guru, we are lucky he is here to guide us), but most everyone only posts their wins. Maybe everyone else is just winning all the time, and it is only you and me that are losing? I doubt it.

Well, I only post my loses here. I can learn a lot more by studying my loses than studying my wins. What went wrong? Maybe NOTHING was wrong, and the unpredictible market just did not follow the typical rythem/rules.

I took the same GBPUSD trade you mention, and I lost as well. I posted the chart here, but no one responded. I believe it was a GOOD TRADE, just the market is unpredictible. So I reminded myself that I made a GOOD DECISION and that the market cannot be predicted.

Keep your chin up. And keep up the good work.

T.J.
  • #15,684
  • Edited 11:37am Jun 24, 2008 11:08am | Edited 11:37am
My trades so far this month
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 24 June2008.zip   825 KB | 922 downloads
  • #15,685
  • Jun 24, 2008 11:12am Jun 24, 2008 11:12am
Quoting Yorik
Have you been there? I might be there just now. I had 2 losses on GBPUSD on NFP week (one on a TC just before NFP and another – on Mon the 3rd of June, on an early 1H TC, -83 pips on two). After that I had no trades on EU and GU for 2 weeks and till today (though monitoring the market all time). Powerful movements for several hundreds of pips but no signal for me.. TCs either with too big signal bars, or with entry against probable support/resistance lines.. Rather frustrating. Missed those tails on EU last week and GU on the 11th as not sure in them yet. I started backtesting EU during 2007 and also have rather/very poor results. It seems that this will need even more work than I thought at the beginning…

But in the end, I’m trying to keep even, not to be captured by emotional fluctuations . 3 months and 12 trades might not be the indicator. At least 2 months more to give myself a verdict. Will try to get in phase with market again..
Hello Yorik,
What you said was most of my thinking after a loss. I made a mistake and next time I will be more picky with my trades and then I wouldn't trade for a long time because nothing will meet my criteria again.
The thing is that I was afraid of loosing again and everything I did was to avoid loosing money. My main goal was not to loose money again. When you have such a beleive you will do whatever it takes to accomplish it. This is where the problem starts.
You don't have to let a loss take over your mind because if it is something painful the mind will try to defend you from going through that pain again. This is why the next setup will never be perfect because is filtered through the experience of the loss and you will not see clearly the signals that the market is showing to you. Since there is nothing to guarantee you that the next setup will be a winner you will try to find every reason to convince your self to stay out. Why? Because you are trying to avoid a loss and that is your goal and is accomplised by staying out.The market shows information that people interpreted and if you are afected by a loss (even if you know you will have others setups) you will not interpreted the information as they are.

In my case: First I took some time away from trading and started to read more on trading pshychology and found out that 60% of the success is trading psychology, 30% money managament and only 10% the system. So the most part of the success is because of YOU the TRADER and is only fair that you spend as much time as you spend on finding a system. Then I understood what traders mean by finding your own style which is finding YOURSELF and what you are capable of doing or in this case what you are capable of trading. Some people are trend follower and try to catch only the big moves and some people are band trader and like trading ranging markets going most of the time against the trend.
Secondly I went to backtest and probably the most important thing I found out about it is that you really have to TRUST the system because that way you will not have second thoughts on a trade (you know that the system works because you tested it and work with it). I discovered that the hardest thing was to trade in a range because you have a lot of false signals. For range the most important thing is to identify the price levels that are tested many times and acted as support and resistance. And always look for swings high or low. Then you look for price action at those levels and trade from a part of the range to another. And when the price is trending and all MA are ligned up you hold the trade as much as possible and you will always find another entry when the price retrace.

I hope I didn't went off the topic a lot. We all have our struggle with forex and the way we got out is different because we are different as people. A friend of mine says that the answer in such case of struggle is like in the karate movies " Search inside of you and you will find what you are looking for".
  • #15,686
  • Jun 24, 2008 11:25am Jun 24, 2008 11:25am
Quoting luckytiger
Hello Yorik,
What you said was most of my thinking after a loss. I made a mistake and next time I will be more picky with my trades and then I wouldn't trade for a long time because nothing will meet my criteria again.
The thing is that I was afraid of loosing again and everything I did was to avoid loosing money. My main goal was not to loose money again. When you have such a beleive you will do whatever it takes to accomplish it. This is where the problem starts.
You don't have to let a loss take over your mind because if it is something painful the mind will try to defend you from going through that pain again. This is why the next setup will never be perfect because is filtered through the experience of the loss and you will not see clearly the signals that the market is showing to you. Since there is nothing to guarantee you that the next setup will be a winner you will try to find every reason to convince your self to stay out. Why? Because you are trying to avoid a loss and that is your goal and is accomplised by staying out.The market shows information that people interpreted and if you are afected by a loss (even if you know you will have others setups) you will not interpreted the information as they are.

In my case: First I took some time away from trading and started to read more on trading pshychology and found out that 60% of the success is trading psychology, 30% money managament and only 10% the system. So the most part of the success is because of YOU the TRADER and is only fair that you spend as much time as you spend on finding a system. Then I understood what traders mean by finding your own style which is finding YOURSELF and what you are capable of doing or in this case what you are capable of trading. Some people are trend follower and try to catch only the big moves and some people are band trader and like trading ranging markets going most of the time against the trend.
Secondly I went to backtest and probably the most important thing I found out about it is that you really have to TRUST the system because that way you will not have second thoughts on a trade (you know that the system works because you tested it and work with it). I discovered that the hardest thing was to trade in a range because you have a lot of false signals. For range the most important thing is to identify the price levels that are tested many times and acted as support and resistance. And always look for swings high or low. Then you look for price action at those levels and trade from a part of the range to another. And when the price is trending and all MA are ligned up you hold the trade as much as possible and you will always find another entry when the price retrace.

I hope I didn't went off the topic a lot. We all have our struggle with forex and the way we got out is different because we are different as people. A friend of mine says that the answer in such case of struggle is like in the karate movies " Search inside of you and you will find what you are looking for".
This is what it is all about. If you have backtested the system applying certain constant acts(rules) and it gives possitive pips you have to believe the backtesting results and then do forward live demo testing till you are positive for at least 3months and then you know the system works. Only then go live. I have spend 2years demotrading before I got something I liked and I also had to learn to trade it. There is no shortcut.
  • #15,687
  • Jun 24, 2008 11:35am Jun 24, 2008 11:35am
Here is the deals that was on this month. Some of them had large signal candle making R:R bad and others were on support or resistance lines.
Only 2 tail trades were really on to take.

If you took any other deals on the 4H you must seriously think of getting the TC signal in your focus and only trade those TC's and the Tails at the right/important places.
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  • #15,688
  • Jun 24, 2008 11:41am Jun 24, 2008 11:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
This is what it is all about. If you have backtested the system applying certain constant acts(rules) and it gives possitive pips you have to believe the backtesting results and then do forward live demo testing till you are positive for at least 3months and then you know the system works. Only then go live. I have spend 2years demotrading before I got something I liked and I also had to learn to trade it. There is no shortcut.
It took me quite sometime to figure this out and I believe I am on the right track now.
It is a saying that you will learned the easy or the hard way but you will learned anyway. It is up to you to choose your way.
  • #15,689
  • Jun 24, 2008 12:14pm Jun 24, 2008 12:14pm
This is the same account I have posted a few pages back where I am busy with some live demo testing a combination of systems. Look at the bad period. All systems will go through that. In your testing period you must also determine what is the biggest period of loss it gave. That is the loss you must prepare for. It is surely going to come. I lost 30% of my account in that bad period. See graph.
Try to also see at what type of market conditions the system has given the best results and visa versa. When those conditions occur you will know how to handle it.
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  • #15,690
  • Jun 24, 2008 1:29pm Jun 24, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting deepsouth
Zen,
The timer on this thread shows minutes and seconds, it may be what you want.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...er#post2036871

Thanks, Deepsouth,

But it's too small and I can't do anything to change its size.

Still, thanks anyway.
  • #15,691
  • Jun 24, 2008 1:47pm Jun 24, 2008 1:47pm
Yorik, you have got many wonderful replies , and as you can see everybody has something to say about it, as everybody was or is there.
What you have described I call a hole (jama), once you get there it takes weeks and tons of work to get out of that hole. But I have some good news too, the more experienced you become the less time you'll need to overcome these periods.
You need to develop some emergency procedures to be able to get out of the hole quickly. For example my procedures are the following: 1) listen to the 13 lessons, 2) listen to Robin seminar http://woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/r...y06/index.html 3) do at least three months of testing before looking at the market again.
I think these periods is a part of this profession, but they will be rare and short.

I have a bit different problem at the moment. I had a nice row of winning trades, so I became overconfident and thought I know where the market would go, so I started to take trades without signals. I paid for it and back to discipline.
  • #15,692
  • Jun 24, 2008 3:18pm Jun 24, 2008 3:18pm
Hello. Im new here and just started study this thread. Im very interested in this system and impressed to Phill work. He done great job here and we may learn very much from this.
I begin read whole thread from begining, and a lot of work before me.
In my opinion i never meet such complex describing system and art of trading.
I like it and join to you in hope learn more and more.
Sorry for my English but Im very weak in writing English
Okey, I set to study and Good Luck wish for you.
I hope that you help me when i had some questions about this.
  • #15,693
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:22pm Jun 24, 2008 4:22pm
Yorik,
What helped me is to not look at the MACD first but to look at the rythm of the market and to go for the rules of the system. If the price goes through the 89 it goes back to the 21 before continuing on. Print out a years worth of charts and look at it you will be pleasantly supprised on your result. Then go back and backtest it with the MACD as confirmation only.

Jason
  • #15,694
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:24pm Jun 24, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting Dogen
Hello. Im new here and just started study this thread. Im very interested in this system and impressed to Phill work. He done great job here and we may learn very much from this.
I begin read whole thread from begining, and a lot of work before me.
In my opinion i never meet such complex describing system and art of trading.
I like it and join to you in hope learn more and more.
Sorry for my English but Im very weak in writing English
Okey, I set to study and Good Luck wish for you.
I hope that you help me when i had some questions about this.
Dogen:

Welcome to the thread and don't worry about your writing skills. If there is patience in trading there has to be patience with everything. Read vettes post right after yours about the MACD, it's important not to specifically trade by it. Recognize the rhythm first = how price is reacting to the moving averages, channels, s/r levels...and then look at the previous set-ups how the MACD gave signals to enter.

As far as a years worth of charts to print out goes, check out http://www.fxtradeblog.com and look at the tools link. There is a years worth of EURUSD 4hr and 1hr charts that you can print out and makes notes on, this helps out a lot. Look forward to your posts...
  • #15,695
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:30pm Jun 24, 2008 7:30pm
Hmmm, as far as the 4 majors go, looks like the cable and euro have any kind of flow to them right now, if any. The Euro looks like it's trying to get moving up but the 1hr looks like it's trying to form a head and shoulders pattern as well. I see contradicting movement there. A LOT of eco news out tomorrow too. Sittin' back until the wash is over..
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  • #15,696
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:35pm Jun 24, 2008 7:35pm
As far as the cable goes, almost the same story. 4hr chart trying to get going but the 1hr has some resistance to punch through too. Patience patience patience....

The Pirates are really givin' it to my Yanks right now too...nothing looks good..
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  • #15,697
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:47pm Jun 24, 2008 7:47pm
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Daily Wrapup June 24.doc   30 KB | 508 downloads
  • #15,698
  • Edited 11:19pm Jun 24, 2008 8:27pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Well, I only post my loses here. I can learn a lot more by studying my loses than studying my wins. What went wrong? Maybe NOTHING was wrong, and the unpredictible market just did not follow the typical rythem/rules.

I took the same GBPUSD trade you mention, and I lost as well. I posted the chart here, but no one responded. I believe it was a GOOD TRADE, just the market is unpredictible. So I reminded myself that I made a GOOD DECISION and that the market cannot be predicted.
T.J.
Because of the red words I will answer your questions about your trades few days ago.

OK!

EUR - for me is the position unclear - if you want, give a chart and I will explain you where the mistake is (if there is any)

GBP -
1. when you take a position you have to enter by the signal bar. If you can not, don't enter. The signalbar is marked with green arrow. There is possibility for late entry, but it is only for masters
2. According Phillip's rules you have to have idea for TP. Usualy that are MAs or levels, or TL. If you look the chart, there is one TL - marked lila (on your chart is red) + one TL - marked blue. That had to be your TP for a part of the positon, and the rest my be on BE - it depends on your MM. But there were arr. 50 pips win.

I hope, this helps you.
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  • #15,699
  • Jun 24, 2008 9:16pm Jun 24, 2008 9:16pm
Hallo Yorik,

wellcome in the team of the traders Don't worry. We all have/had these problems.

My advice: Beginn to trade only TCs by these conditions:
- don't look at the 89 and 200 ma
- TC have to be between +30 to -30 (TC=ZB=BOZ)
- the price have to be near 21 ema
- if the body of the signal bar is too large, ignore the trade
- use proper MM acc. your stop. It is more easyer to enter on the 1h or 30 min chart - the stoplevel is clearer and smaller.

  • #15,700
  • Jun 25, 2008 12:12am Jun 25, 2008 12:12am
Happy68, thank you so much, it is more clear now that someone else breaks down the trade.

I really do learn a lot more from my loses than my wins, and I feel with your help, I have just learned A LOT.
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