USD/JPY Discussion

Can anyone explain the retrace that hapenned after the London opened?

It hit my stop to the pip and thats ok, i lost 90 pips profit, but i want to understand why this retrace. Usualy price retraces to app. 50%, but this time it hit 107,93, right where it started its decent.

Can anyone provide explanation?

Tere all, my YEN analyze for next week, pls your coments!!

Your charts are excellent. I am sure that you are aware of the following fact only as it relates to the Currency Pair, USD/JPY.

The Yen is a Carry Trade Currency so the strength or weakness of the Dow and other currencies such as the Euro affect your charts. That means in a flash your charts are outdated short term. As an example of that was last week when the UK Retail Sales number came out at 4:30 AM EST. Within 15 minutes the USD/JPY rose 50 PIPS ! Why ? The GBP/USD got stronger on the amazing Retail Sales Number ! That sent EUR/USD down and the EUR/JPY got stronger as Yen was sold to borrow it and British Pounds were purchased. Of course that was reversed as related to the USD/JPY going towards 108.00 again but it was not a real move longer term since it was a one time event based on the STRONG UK Retail Sales ! (A Fundamental Fact) That was not in the charts just before it happened.

Then on Friday when The Dow came down 220 Points mainly because of two facts. Oil going back up along with Gold BUT the MAIN Fact known overnight was the New Ratings for Ambac and MBIA by Moody's.

That means as a FACT that there is at least Five Hundred Billion More in losses to come for the Banks and Brokerage Firms. Another Fundamental Fact that is was NOT in the charts when USD/JPY was testing 108.00 again.

The ONLY way to be a consistent WINNER in Forex is to trade using the Formula, FTP ! Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

Probably 75% of ALL FX Traders out there including the largest trade mainly using the Technicals ! Is It Any Wonder that 95% of All FX Traders lose in this business of ours ?

Have A Great Weekend and come visit at "Knowledge Is Power" We can use your charting skills which are part of successful Forex trading. We need to know the best entry points and exit points. We need to know where the BIG BOYS and GIRLS are going to play the STOPS on the losing traders as they become convinced that USD/JPY is going to 109.00 just because the charts say so. History Repeats BUT the Charts do not because of New Fundamental Facts such as the FED on Tuesday, June 24, 2008, 2:15 PM will NOT raise the FED Discount Rate from 2.0% to 2.25%.

Two weeks ago the FED head faked the market on their Inflation stand.

Now INSANITY is always possible and they could RAISE on Tuesday.

Be Ready For Anything BUT be aware fundamentally that it will cause the Dow to collapse and send USD/JPY down to 104.00 AFTER the Immediate Misguided Excitement is OVER concerning a US STRONG DOLLAR !

Good Weekend To You !!!


Bruce
FTP FX TRADER

Whats your suggestion actually?


104 Yen and 207 Geppy?

Rates get raised you think the UJ is going to unwind further?

Fundamentals:

Technicals:


Everyone who wasn't holding losing positions for the following few weeks can tell you that.

are financials markets ok?
oil is really nice for consumers at $140?
does houses values have stopped falling?

usa trillonaire deficit is corrected?...

i guess they dont, prepare for a big plunge in usd/jpy.
pretty sure, financial troubles are starting, world have seen nothing yet.

yep . technicals done all the work this week...:nerd:

According to my calculations of pivots I have the PP on the 107.42..... Last 30 minute candle moved above up then retrace to the PP and the next candle had open on the PP...... Oh, by the way..... The trend is still up.......

For those who are curious on how this retrace occurred is very simple.... The 30 minute candle had bust the bollinger band by 50% and also bust the pivot.... When that happens a major retrace will eventuate through that candle and into the next candle..... 90% of the time the next candle from the retrace will go back into the trend..... As in this scenario, a 20 pip retrace is major for the yen according to the movements we have had lately......

Another bounce off the pivot........ We have the pivot point at the 107.42 and the central pivot at the 107.12....... It will fun to see which way it will go.

open long @ 107.4

haha i have the same position as you

I think we will see more downside actionas long as we don't get a candle close above 107.58 I am looking at 106.50 as the low at least by U.S. open.

Maybe in your dreams.....

This guy is crazy all he says is up up up but he seems to be wrong most of the time look at my previous posts then look at what happened did we get a higher high or a lower low. We will see at the end of the U.S. session who is right but I am still sticking with 106.50ish levels. Topside limited to 107.65

Here is the bottom line and that is all that matters and I'm sticking to my story........:::::::

Range trading will continue to frustrate both dollar shorts and dollar longs for several months to come. And why is that?

Because the FED's don't care and keep printing the fiat stuff while ECB is sweating it.

In my opinion it will be hard for the dollar to gain strength because there is no news for today so all that the dollar has in favor would be a nice dow rally which isn't out of the question because the Saudis' are going to produce more oil but I do think upside is very limited.

Here is an interesting currency strength calculator:

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/curren...th_calculator/


Dean.

Like I said earlier...... London sweating it because all the announcements for the EUR was negative....... They sure took a pretty good beating this morning with the dollar.......

Only in your dreams.