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  • #11,481
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:28am Jun 20, 2008 5:28am
Quoting Clouds
Yeah, I meant other bank.
Still, I disagree with the 1.7 forecast on the EUR interest rate raise. That high a level is not in the ECB's interest, nor is the 0.25 bp hike alone sufficient to make such a runup possible. Trichet would have to abandon all reason completely and become more hawkish than ever thus setting market expectations sufficiently high for a 1400 pip jump... this is hardly realistic.
  • #11,482
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:34am Jun 20, 2008 5:34am
Here is another prediction...

small stops for the wrong tops...
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  • #11,483
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:34am Jun 20, 2008 5:34am
Quoting Subdude
Still, I disagree with the 1.7 forecast on the EUR interest rate raise. That high a level is not in the ECB's interest, nor is the 0.25 bp hike alone sufficient to make such a runup possible. Trichet would have to abandon all reason completely and become more hawkish than ever thus setting market expectations sufficiently high for a 1400 pip jump... this is hardly realistic.
It's very realistic.
See the chart it touched SMA at 1.44 then went to 1.60, now it's touching SMA at 1.53, so if I were to look at history of the 1600 pips up, it would go now to 1.79. Forget what anyone says, it's in the charts. Don't you remember people complaining the euro was high at 1.44?? It's not as high as the pound still, so why complaining? Anyway, it could go up, down or range.
Attached Image
  • #11,484
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:43am Jun 20, 2008 5:43am
With all due respect to charts, european exporters will not (and cannot) tolerate the EUR @ $1.7
  • #11,485
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:44am Jun 20, 2008 5:44am
Quoting Clouds
It's very realistic.
See the chart it touched SMA at 1.44 then went to 1.60, now it's touching SMA at 1.53, so if I were to look at history of the 1600 pips up, it would go now to 1.79. Forget what anyone says, it's in the charts. Don't you remember people complaining the euro was high at 1.44?? It's not as high as the pound still, so why complaining? Anyway, it could go up, down or range.
Attachment

Just remember that a fall below 1.5560 is failed breakout and very bearish. Just something to watch for.

If they rally the dollar in the US session then it could happen.
  • #11,486
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:49am Jun 20, 2008 5:49am
BoredToLooseWhat a mess!
Today is doing what I was waiting to see yesterday, and yesterday has done what I was waiting to see today.

I have lost several shorts today, with several entries, only stick to one short waiting to see if my level will be broken.

This is catching a lot of fish today, and it is not to eat, so Monday will send it to trash!
short today ?nooo
  • #11,487
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:55am Jun 20, 2008 5:55am
Quoting Subdude
With all due respect to charts, european exporters will not (and cannot) tolerate the EUR @ $1.7
Will not and cannot are figuritive - they were yelling when EU was 1.2 then 1.3 then 1.4 and louder at 1.5 - not so loud at 1.6

If you look at the trade balance for the past 2 years - ever since it started a mass scale appreciation - you will notice that each time it has gone up 1000 pips - exporters have adjusted - yes it kills profits but markets dont stop at that

Trichet is trying a different ball game here
  • #11,488
  • Jun 20, 2008 5:56am Jun 20, 2008 5:56am

:: It did what it had to do

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  • #11,489
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:26am Jun 20, 2008 6:26am
Quoting de123
guys any short below 1.5612 is scary,..be aware of mf gap up above the devils....
see i told u...
its just money
  • #11,490
  • Jun 20, 2008 6:30am Jun 20, 2008 6:30am
Here's another chart showing some similarities to past trends...
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  • #11,491
  • Jun 20, 2008 7:03am Jun 20, 2008 7:03am
Next H4 must close 16:00 GMT below 1.5586 to give to bears a sign to do not leave your short trades! IF Do not close, so pray to all saints or close your trade.
  • #11,492
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:00am Jun 20, 2008 8:00am
Strong support at 1.5602.
May the Pips be with You Let's Pimp some Pips!
  • #11,493
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:15am Jun 20, 2008 8:15am
Quoting Subdude
With all due respect to charts, european exporters will not (and cannot) tolerate the EUR @ $1.7
Time and time again you people come up with full blown crap to somehow satisfy your own visions (I know theres a word for it but I can't think of it). They won't tolerate 1.7??? Where do you get your information from??? Just a couple days ago some business survey from Eurozone came out and said they were doing perfectly fine adjusting to current market rates. I doubt another 14 cents is going to kill them (just a thought). Even then there are so many things to consider (economics, fundamentals, everything etc). For example lets to say it is at 1.7, are you forgetting most of this inflation is from oil? I'd think that it might be cheaper to produce things considering they're buying oil in weaker dollars (once again just another thought). Get back to me when Euro tops off at 2.000 and we quit relying on the fully inflated dreams of what was once the dollar (based on shaky economics and more inflated CRAP)

MY 2 CENTS

Everyones thoughts are more than welcome

***Added: While I do believe we still have some more highs to see, I'm usually one to go with market, wherever it may go. I just dont believe 1.70 is unthinkable
Helping the philosophically challenged
  • #11,494
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:21am Jun 20, 2008 8:21am
I just truly believe that we as society (and especially as forex junkies) are predisposed to the notion that the Dollar is almighty, can never fail, and will always prevail. Every great empire usually falls, let's not forget that. Especially when you consider alot of facts about America's past and present shaky economic and how it was built (cheap credit, debt, printing dollars like it was free, etc). I'm not saying now, im not saying soon, but I do believe these other "newer" economies were built with somewhat better knowledge, structure, and learned from the mistakes of older ones (such as America). Please feel more than free to correct or add to my thoughts.
Helping the philosophically challenged
  • #11,495
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:24am Jun 20, 2008 8:24am
Tops and Bottoms are for fools.

Just trade everything inbetween.
bull in a china shop
  • #11,496
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:26am Jun 20, 2008 8:26am
Quoting triq03
I just truly believe that we as society (and especially as forex junkies) are predisposed to the notion that the Dollar is almighty, can never fail, and will always prevail. Every great empire usually falls, let's not forget that. Especially when you consider alot of facts about America's past and present shaky economic and how it was built (cheap credit, debt, printing dollars like it was free, etc). I'm not saying now, im not saying soon, but I do believe these other "newer" economies were built with somewhat better knowledge and learned from the mistakes of older ones (such as America). Please feel more than free to correct or add to my thoughts.
The USD is the world's reserve currency, so the world does care about it. The euro is more like a great empire. We'll never experience hyper inflation anymore, with G8 around. You won't see a 4.0 EUR/USD or a .10 EUR/USD, but 2.0 to 1.0 is not out of the question...
  • #11,497
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:27am Jun 20, 2008 8:27am
I still remember not so long ago... folks were saying 1.3 was a top.. HAH!

Quoting triq03
I just truly believe that we as society (and especially as forex junkies) are predisposed to the notion that the Dollar is almighty, can never fail, and will always prevail. Every great empire usually falls, let's not forget that. Especially when you consider alot of facts about America's past and present shaky economic and how it was built (cheap credit, debt, printing dollars like it was free, etc). I'm not saying now, im not saying soon, but I do believe these other "newer" economies were built with somewhat better knowledge, structure, and learned from the mistakes of older ones (such as America). Please feel more than free to correct or add to my thoughts.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #11,498
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:29am Jun 20, 2008 8:29am
Quoting triq03
I just truly believe that we as society (and especially as forex junkies) are predisposed to the notion that the Dollar is almighty, can never fail, and will always prevail. Every great empire usually falls, let's not forget that. Especially when you consider alot of facts about America's past and present shaky economic and how it was built (cheap credit, debt, printing dollars like it was free, etc). I'm not saying now, im not saying soon, but I do believe these other "newer" economies were built with somewhat better knowledge, structure, and learned from the mistakes of older ones (such as America). Please feel more than free to correct or add to my thoughts.
This makes absolute sense. The dollar will eventually fail. Run a search on YouTube for "death of the dollar" and see that what Triq says here actually makes sense
Not all sins are created equal
  • #11,499
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:30am Jun 20, 2008 8:30am
Very beautifully said. I just think that these predisposed notions are a huge handicap and/or impede our judgment when it comes to markets. I know it did for me when I first started out. This is a very possible OPEN market...Keyword being OPEN and very fkucking possible
Helping the philosophically challenged
  • #11,500
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:31am Jun 20, 2008 8:31am

:: Whatever started in begin-mid 2006 till now, 1.700 is just a little breeze

:: so... ride the bull, but kiss the bear gently

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