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Attachments: Long Term GBP/USD ( Warning Sign )
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Long Term GBP/USD ( Warning Sign )

  • Poll

  • Do you think the Cable will rebound and Resume uptrend?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 19, 2008 1:28am Jun 18, 2008 1:33am | Edited Jun 19, 2008 1:28am
Hello:

WARNING: This is a Warning Sign, a Highly violated market move may happened with more than 1500 PIPS In one Direction within One Month!

You Might Either Get out of the Market, Or Follow the Train and Make Profit.

 Do you think the Cable will Cross the line and confirm the down trend?
or will it bounce back?
Like what have happened in April 2006, where it bounced back 1700 PIP In One Direction with No Correction?

Starting from 1.7244
ending at 1.9006
that's 1762 Pips Move.
it is Shown in the Third attachment.


If It Does, we can make at least 1000 Pips on that ride within one month

Please Use Stops here
This is a Critical Trading area

 on the first chart you will see the trend which have been tested before.
on the other one you will see the price is currently in the critical area.
Why can't i Tell the Direction?
Because we are not the Ones who decide that, Big guys Does.

let me know what you think.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bounds-weeklyd.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: range.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
  • #2
  • Jun 18, 2008 10:13am Jun 18, 2008 10:13am
And here is the daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bounds-daily.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #3
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:13am Jun 19, 2008 1:13am
I Have modified the first post to reflect how serious this Period is, And what to expect.
  • #4
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:15am Jun 19, 2008 7:15am
could the daily trend line hold on if there was a bad news for USD Today?

that red line was tested today,
we may rebound for a good short trade,
or it might be broken up....
i have put a limit order to open at 1.9718 with stop 1.9735

we might miss it , and we might ride this trade, and the stop also might be hit.

but don't trade without this stop here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #5
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:26am Jun 19, 2008 7:26am
I think it will just continue to range for rest of the year. There is some good data coming from UK but I think its cooked up.
  • #6
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:38am Jun 19, 2008 7:38am
Quoting good
I think it will just continue to range for rest of the year. There is some good data coming from UK but I think its cooked up.
When this hit in 2006, it was ranging just like what is happening now a days.
i have lived the moment there, and i remember how better it was for me because i couldn't tell in a time.
  • #7
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:51am Jun 19, 2008 7:51am
Lets hope we get a nice healthy trend for a change.
  • #8
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:18am Jun 19, 2008 8:18am
It's going to be a while. BoE talking rate hawkish but w/ no economic basis for it. UK's caught stagflation, if they raise rates they hurt the economy, if they don't, then inflation eats them up.

If any trend does resume it'll probably be a down trend, but that won't happen until the US starts raising rates. Probably not till '09. Even a bunch of US bad news won't matter, none of that is a long term price factor anyway, the UK's got it bad and isn't getting better soon.
  • #9
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:51am Jun 19, 2008 8:51am
Quoting Rabid
It's going to be a while. BoE talking rate hawkish but w/ no economic basis for it. UK's caught stagflation, if they raise rates they hurt the economy, if they don't, then inflation eats them up.

If any trend does resume it'll probably be a down trend, but that won't happen until the US starts raising rates. Probably not till '09. Even a bunch of US bad news won't matter, none of that is a long term price factor anyway, the UK's got it bad and isn't getting better soon.
that's a good point,
So, The Inflation in the UK, Will make them to raise the rates, so do US.

That's 1:1 i think

as for the time,
in the weekly chart it is showing , the price will range further more, but it will continue the trend or break it within 3 months i think.

that's my opinion.
  • #10
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:36am Jun 19, 2008 11:36am
Quote
So, The Inflation in the UK, Will make them to raise the rates, so do US.

Ok, well this is just speculation, so I don't trade on this or anything nuts like that. But here's the problem as I see it.

The US has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the fed has a history of not raising rates while unemployment is still on the rise. I don't see that changing anytime in the next few months, but there will be a growth in retail towards the end of '08, and in '09 I expect to see job numbers start coming back. There's a general thought that the fed will not raise rates until then, which corresponds to the mood that the fed's been in lately.

The BoE on the other hand is in a completely different situation. They are scared of inflation, so much so they've put economic growth on the back burner.

Infact this came out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy

BoE gov King said he's willing to sacrifice living standards and economic growth in order to control inflation. The problem with that approach... it often leads to stagflation. In a case where the economy isn't growing and you're looking at inflation you basically have to pick the worst of the 2, and fight that. The US has a history of picking economic weakness and saying to heck with inflation, but the UK is following the ECB's inflation-obsession mentality to the detriment of the economy.

I certainly don't see the UK cutting rates, however I don't know if they're really ready to start raising them. They might a little, but they don't have nearly as much room to raise rates as the US does, as we've continually cut rates despite inflation concerns.

I think that the BoE will talk hawkish for some time, then they'll raise rates. That will boost the currency some, but it will hit their economy hard... which will act as a lead weight. I believe over time any rate hikes will be offset, mostly, but their weakening economy. At that point either the win the war against inflation, or they have to switch strategies. Either way, their potential to raise rates will be short lived and those raises will be offset by economic losses.

The US is in the exact opposite boat. The US economy is recovering nicely, and other than commodities inflation (corn, wheat and oil basically), we've come out of the subprime mess fairly clean. Rates are low, which means the US has a lot of room to raise rates once jobs are on the mend... meaning that rate hikes won't be weighted down by economic instability.

We might see a small GBP rally, but I would not expect a major trend. I do expect sometime in '09 for the US to start raising rates. When that happens I believe the USD will rally against the last few years of weakness, and I suspect the cable will break it's current floor and drop like a rock.
  • #11
  • Jun 19, 2008 11:49am Jun 19, 2008 11:49am
Quoting Rabid
Ok, well this is just speculation, so I don't trade on this or anything nuts like that. But here's the problem as I see it.

The US has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the fed has a history of not raising rates while unemployment is still on the rise. I don't see that changing anytime in the next few months, but there will be a growth in retail towards the end of '08, and in '09 I expect to see job numbers start coming back. There's a general thought that the fed will not raise rates until then, which corresponds to the mood that the fed's been in lately.

The BoE on the other hand is in a completely different situation. They are scared of inflation, so much so they've put economic growth on the back burner.

Infact this came out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy

BoE gov King said he's willing to sacrifice living standards and economic growth in order to control inflation. The problem with that approach... it often leads to stagflation. In a case where the economy isn't growing and you're looking at inflation you basically have to pick the worst of the 2, and fight that. The US has a history of picking economic weakness and saying to heck with inflation, but the UK is following the ECB's inflation-obsession mentality to the detriment of the economy.

I certainly don't see the UK cutting rates, however I don't know if they're really ready to start raising them. They might a little, but they don't have nearly as much room to raise rates as the US does, as we've continually cut rates despite inflation concerns.

I think that the BoE will talk hawkish for some time, then they'll raise rates. That will boost the currency some, but it will hit their economy hard... which will act as a lead weight. I believe over time any rate hikes will be offset, mostly, but their weakening economy. At that point either the win the war against inflation, or they have to switch strategies. Either way, their potential to raise rates will be short lived and those raises will be offset by economic losses.

The US is in the exact opposite boat. The US economy is recovering nicely, and other than commodities inflation (corn, wheat and oil basically), we've come out of the subprime mess fairly clean. Rates are low, which means the US has a lot of room to raise rates once jobs are on the mend... meaning that rate hikes won't be weighted down by economic instability.

We might see a small GBP rally, but I would not expect a major trend. I do expect sometime in '09 for the US to start raising rates. When that happens I believe the USD will rally against the last few years of weakness, and I suspect the cable will break it's current floor and drop like a rock.

Thank you for the Explanation which is really helpful
  • #12
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:22pm Jun 19, 2008 12:22pm
I'll follow it up or down. Either way we make money.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #13
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:38pm Jun 19, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Pidgeon
I'll follow it up or down. Either way we make money.
that's the point
  • #14
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:27pm Jun 19, 2008 1:27pm
Quote
I'll follow it up or down. Either way we make money.

Nod. I think that's a really important distinction too. Fundamentals like this can be fun to play with, and in some cases can lead to a particular currency being a good trending component, but have absolutely no baring on day-to-day trading. Speculating on them can be fun, but gives us nothing we can trade with on our usual time frames.
  • #15
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:38pm Jun 19, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Rabid
Nod. I think that's a really important distinction too. Fundamentals like this can be fun to play with, and in some cases can lead to a particular currency being a good trending component, but have absolutely no baring on day-to-day trading. Speculating on them can be fun, but gives us nothing we can trade with on our usual time frames.
but if it happened, we can open one trade and leave it for a month,
of course with a stop, and we move this stop closer as we are earning.

and also we can trade on the usual frames like now,
  • #16
  • Jun 20, 2008 1:38pm Jun 20, 2008 1:38pm
if the market close above 1.9690 today, that means the market have closed the weekly candle above the 61.8 fibo fan level on the weekly frame.

that means, the down trend is broken on that frame,
and we should prepare our selves for new highs.
  • #17
  • Jun 21, 2008 4:54am Jun 21, 2008 4:54am
Quote
that means, the down trend is broken on that frame, and we should prepare our selves for new highs.

I'd be really careful about that, UK still has horrible fundamentals and has been in a down trend since falling below the 365 SMA. It's in consolidation at the moment, with a floor that just won't break... for now.
  • #18
  • Jun 21, 2008 5:05am Jun 21, 2008 5:05am
Quoting Rabid
I'd be really careful about that, UK still has horrible fundamentals and has been in a down trend since falling below the 365 SMA. It's in consolidation at the moment, with a floor that just won't break... for now.
i will be careful too,

however, the next week will confirm..
  • #19
  • Jun 21, 2008 1:52pm Jun 21, 2008 1:52pm
From my own personal view and perception , i strongly do not believe in any long term uptrend in the gbpusd pair other than a ranging market throughout the rest of this year until the US comences interest rate hikes, this pair is likely to keep ranging between 2.0200 and 1.9360's all thru d year.
For a long term uptrend, this still appears daisy, cos the UK is presently faced with increasing inflation. an increase in interest rate will not be wise as far as the economy is concerned. fundamentally, the whole world is presently much concerned about the dangers looming bcos of d depreciating dollar and there are political warfare in its continued depreciation. u all could see the war of words between trichet and bernanke in the last few weeks.
As far as a long term downtrend is also concerned,its also daisy. teknically,it has not been strong enough to break below the 1.9340-60 level, sugesting how strong the support there is. fundametally, high and increasing inflation could cause BOE to keep hawkish thereby preventing any significant downtrend just like in the case of d euro. though the US is yet to recover fundamentally as housing, increasing oil prices and increasing inflation have been a barrier for its recovery.
Conclusively, all we could still have thid year is a ranging market btween the highs of 2.0200-400 and the lows of 1.9340's-400.
know thy edge and abide by it ! 4 in it shall thou be successful !
  • #20
  • Jun 21, 2008 1:58pm Jun 21, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting robertsonakp
Conclusively, all we could still have thid year is a ranging market btween the highs of 2.0200-400 and the lows of 1.9340's-400.
well, i hope, as far as i can see it seems that this is the common idea.
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