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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,601
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:33pm Jun 18, 2008 7:33pm
  • #8,602
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:19pm Jun 18, 2008 8:19pm
Like I said in my previous posts we will see 105 before we see 110.
  • #8,603
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:32pm Jun 18, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting ak4x
let the turn begin


the turn down began two days ago you guys just failed to see it. Its been in a downturn for a long time now.


Charts folks read the charts
  • #8,604
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:48pm Jun 18, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting Schminner
Perhaps this is the beginning of a downtrend ....
The downtrend has been intact for quite sometime now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Weekly Chart
  • #8,605
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:31pm Jun 18, 2008 9:31pm
Quoting ak47dan2004
Like I said in my previous posts we will see 105 before we see 110.
  • #8,606
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:47pm Jun 18, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting tullid
Daily UY Chart. it may not get too far below 107.60 before it starts upward again, but if price blows past that area it is possible that we could see 107 by Friday before the trend continues back on its upswing that started back in March.
_
I agree with you. I think it goes back up.
  • #8,607
  • Jun 18, 2008 10:01pm Jun 18, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting steelhead
the turn down began two days ago you guys just failed to see it. Its been in a downturn for a long time now.

Charts folks read the charts
"You guys?" Is that anybody that holds a different view of "their" charts?

Reading MY chart is what I WAS doing. For anyone interested in what I was looking at, here it is.

I neglected to say I was referring to a couple short TF EU charts, where all the movement had just taken place, 42 pips EU vs about half that on UJ. I had honestly expected UJ to move a little more than it did, but as I was concentrating on the EU move, oh well. If the 42 pip EU move had been a stop clearing move prior to a larger down move, well, we wouldn't even be having this discussion then, would we.

In any event, when my 7:57 candle closed and confirmed the turn from the recent price action, I posted as such, and a couple minutes later, it did in fact turn. I stand by my post as the chart shows.

First trade was higher risk counter move short on the retrace when it hit the upper BB and then broke back below M4. Second one was low risk in trend long (as determined by my 6/8hr chart for this trade) when it bounced off of R1 for ride back to M4. Then I'm done with that move and now you know.

Myself, I've always been more interested in learning about something I may have missed or not known, than after the fact "told you so's". To each his own tho, including their charts.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #8,608
  • Jun 18, 2008 10:09pm Jun 18, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting ak4x
"You guys?" Is that anybody that holds a different view of "their" charts?

Reading MY chart is what I WAS doing. For anyone interested in what I was looking at, here it is.

I neglected to say I was referring to a couple short TF EU charts, where all the movement had just taken place, 42 pips EU vs about half that on UJ. I had honestly expected UJ to move a little more than it did, but as I was concentrating on the EU move, oh well. If the 42 pip EU move had been a stop clearing move prior to a larger down move, well, we wouldn't even be having this discussion then, would we.

In any event, when my 7:57 candle closed and confirmed the turn from the recent price action, I posted as such, and a couple minutes later, it did in fact turn. I stand by my post as the chart shows.

First trade was higher risk counter move short on the retrace when it hit the upper BB and then broke back below M4. Second one was low risk in trend long (as determined by my 6/8hr chart for this trade) when it bounced off of R1 for ride back to M4. Then I'm done with that move and now you know.

Myself, I've always been more interested in learning about something I may have missed or not known, than after the fact "told you so's". To each his own tho, including their charts.
Smiling - I just love it.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,609
  • Jun 18, 2008 11:54pm Jun 18, 2008 11:54pm
Hi,

I'm gonna short if 3pm candle open below 107.59. TP = 107.02
May the pips be with me !!!
  • #8,610
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:09am Jun 19, 2008 12:09am
Quoting ahlude
Hi,

I'm gonna short if 3pm candle open below 107.59. TP = 107.02
I understand a lot of traders look to buy/sell breakouts. It's important to note that most breakouts fail. They only work when the conditions are right and the professional traders have already positioned themselves ahead of time for a move higher or lower. Otherwise, you'll fall victim to a sucker play and get caught buying a top or selling into the hole.

Although, I have been shorting at 108.50 earlier this week, I am now covering those shorts and going long around 107.5-107. The market is most likely setting up for a move higher before a potentially bigger move lower.
  • #8,611
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:50am Jun 19, 2008 12:50am
Quoting nwsuccess
I understand a lot of traders look to buy/sell breakouts. It's important to note that most breakouts fail. They only work when the conditions are right and the professional traders have already positioned themselves ahead of time for a move higher or lower. Otherwise, you'll fall victim to a sucker play and get caught buying a top or selling into the hole.

Although, I have been shorting at 108.50 earlier this week, I am now covering those shorts and going long around 107.5-107. The market is most likely setting up for a move higher before a potentially bigger move lower.

How can we confirm if this is not a fake breakout though i didnt open this trade.
May the pips be with me !!!
  • #8,612
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:56am Jun 19, 2008 12:56am
Quoting ahlude
How can we confirm if this is not a fake breakout though i didnt open this trade.

http://www.weboma.com/dont-let-the-i...nce-breakouts/

Snippet:


Tip of the Day:

The title of today’s report may have made your surprised but most of you know what I mean. We are all personal traders and the amount we buy or sell individually, doesn’t have any significant impact on the market direction. We simply follow the signals and trends. Our action doesn’t let any of the other traders lose any money unless they act against the trend. So if everybody follows the trend and market he/she will not lose and everybody can collect his/her profit.
But devil bank traders have some different methods sometimes. They make money for the banks by causing the others to lose money. How?
They make false support and resistance breakouts during the slowest time. Lets say the price is right under a strong resistance and has already shown good bearish signals and wants to go down. Most of the traders have already taken their short positions and have placed their stop loss orders above the resistance. Naturally, the stop loss order of a short position is a buy order, isn’t it?
On other side of the market, there is a devil banker who also knows that the prices wants to go down. He wants to take a short position for his bank but as the bank will pay him more money if he makes more, he wants to do something that makes more money. So what does he do?


He knows that personal traders have taken and are taking short positions and this is obvious because the price is going down slowly. Instead of selling short, he buys long. They have a lot of money in their hands and so he places a huge or several big buy orders one after each other. As they do this when the market is slow and there is a small number of traders in the market, his buy orders will have the maximum impact in the price and causes the price to jump up. This sudden movement triggers stop losses that are all buy orders and this will provide more fuel for the price to go higher. The other traders think that the resistance is broken up and so they take a long position and again this will cause the price to go higher.

But this is a false breakup because before this the price has been going up for a long time and is already exhausted. Soon the price stops going up and starts following its natural bias. The banker is waiting for this opportunity to close his long positions and take short positions with a bigger amount of money. He does it and the price goes down suddenly. Then he places his stop loss orders and goes home. The market follows this direction because it is what it wanted to do before. Other traders take short positions and this takes the price much lower.
So what is the result? Rich becomes richer and a lot of poor personal traders lose money because of triggering their stop loss orders or because of taking long positions after the false resistance breakout.
Although the banker could still make money without pushing up the price falsely, their excessive greed for making more money causes them to make the others to lose money.
Last Friday, exactly 5 minutes before the market closing time was the last time I saw a false breakout in GBP-JPY.
So what should you do to avoid being trapped in this whirlpool?
1- Avoid placing tight stop losses.
2- If the price is testing a support or resistance line, let it succeed or fail and then take your position. Being late is better than being wrong.
3- Do not trade during the slow time or when the market is choppy.
4- Do not trade during the last hours of the market on Friday. If you already have a position, move your stop loss to a proper place but do not take any new position.
Forex trading is like sailing. You should be able to distinguish the best sailing time.

Fundamentals: Philadelphia Fed at 10:00 AM
Ok! Lets check the currency pairs.

{Promotion Removed}
  • #8,613
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:37am Jun 19, 2008 2:37am
Quoting ak4x
In any event, when my 7:57 candle closed and confirmed the turn from the recent price action, I posted as such, and a couple minutes later, it did in fact turn. I stand by my post as the chart shows.

First trade was higher risk counter move short on the retrace when it hit the upper BB and then broke back below M4. Second one was low risk in trend long (as determined by my 6/8hr chart for this trade) when it bounced off of R1 for ride back to M4. Then I'm done with that move and now you know.
Hi ak4x! Is your bollinger band a normal 12 period one with 2 deviations?

I'm intrigued by the way the bollinger bands just comes together with the pivots.

Am I right to say this -> As price pulls away from band, and it so happens to bounce off a certain pivot point, its a buy (high risk if counter-trend)?

(Sorry I'm not too good with Bollinger Bands. )
  • #8,614
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:10am Jun 19, 2008 5:10am
I just love it when the pivots does its job....... Got in with the yen at the S1 for the long and took profit at the central for the announcement and got in the eur at the R1 and rode it to the S1 for the profit......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,615
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:12am Jun 19, 2008 5:12am
Quoting ak4x
"You guys?" Is that anybody that holds a different view of "their" charts?
Man, you are so wrong. Don't you GET IT??? Learn to read your charts.

It looks to me like the bull flag pattern is forming nicely and, if so, that means it should break to the upside eventually. But I'll take trades in whatever direction it goes.
  • #8,616
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:15am Jun 19, 2008 5:15am
Quoting thegunslinger
Man, you are so wrong. Don't you GET IT??? Learn to read your charts.

It looks to me like the bull flag pattern is forming nicely and, if so, that means it should break to the upside eventually. But I'll take trades in whatever direction it goes.
GunSlinger - I think you read that post wrong........
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,617
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:15am Jun 19, 2008 5:15am
Quoting dove_alliance
I just love it when the pivots does its job....... Got in with the yen at the S1 for the long and took profit at the central for the announcement and got in the eur at the R1 and rode it to the S1 for the profit......
Cool! Me Too!
Made up for all the slow days this week
  • #8,618
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:21am Jun 19, 2008 5:21am
Quoting dove_alliance
GunSlinger - I think you read that post wrong........
No, I read it right. I was being sarcastic in the first sentence. Guess I didn't emphasize that enough.
  • #8,619
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:22am Jun 19, 2008 5:22am
Quoting thegunslinger
No, I read it right. I was being sarcastic in the first sentence. Guess I didn't emphasize that enough.
Smiling - got it now.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,620
  • Jun 19, 2008 5:25am Jun 19, 2008 5:25am
Numbers looking good for the dollar and we will see here in about 5 minutes.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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