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The art of Trading MAs

  • #261
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:14am Jun 18, 2008 4:14am
OK i agree give it a chance - And yes thanks Endroute for sharing your ideas sounds like this is working for some people so thats great.
Time hides Nothing
  • #262
  • Jun 18, 2008 4:43am Jun 18, 2008 4:43am
Quoting CindyXXXX
OK i agree give it a chance - And yes thanks Endroute for sharing your ideas sounds like this is working for some people so thats great.
It will have its chance irrespective of what any of us contend cindy. If it adds value to even one trader on here, it will have served its purpose. However, like any indicator, it has its limits.

Take it easy

Darryl
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #263
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:43am Jun 18, 2008 5:43am
These systems can have ugly days. They must be traded over time to see positive reults. I'm not a big fan of this type of trading but found the indicator interesting. If it works for endroute thats great. I'll stick to s/r (leading), candles(leading) and macd for divergence (leading). Give me 20 pips a day and I'm happy. The market can trade any way it likes.

Just me,
RWX
  • #264
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:49am Jun 18, 2008 5:49am
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Endroute and Thread,

No replies about COG in eSignal and I can't find it either. That being said, could one use Bollinger Bands or some other band indicator as a replacement for the COG? If so, which band indicator and which settings. Would appreciate the heads-up here. Thanks very much and sorry for any bother by anyone.

Lenoxer
I would look at using the parabolic, another great way of filtering emas and without the repainting issues.
  • #265
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:54am Jun 18, 2008 7:54am
I would be VERY interested to know how you did this. My EA, which was programmed to trade using endroute's original rules, lost every trade it took yesterday. And I believe it took every possible signal (there were four or five, I think). Can you tell us which trades you took? And were you using the 1H or a smaller TF?

Like Cindy, I'm a bit disenchanted at the moment. I was pretty gung-ho on this looking at the backtests, but it's a different story live. I see no way that this thing could get you hundreds, let alone, thousands of pips a week. I think in the days that I have been testing it (3 or 4 now?), either manual or with the EA, I've had only one winning trade. Don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, just being open and honest.

So, to those of you having some success, please share the specifics.

Thanks,
Scott

Quote
Cindy, I bagged about 150 pips with this system yesterday.

Yes the COG repaints, but I'm finding it is still a very useful filter. I also flick between a number of timeframes and make sure that a potential signal makes sense in the broader context.

Endroute, thanks heaps for sharing your simple and straightforward system. Good trading to you!

Kind Regards,
Matt.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #266
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:20am Jun 18, 2008 8:20am
Quote: "Cindy, I bagged about 150 pips with this system yesterday.....

......Endroute, thanks heaps for sharing your simple and straightforward system. Good trading to you!

Kind Regards,
Matt.''Quote

Quote: ..."Are you using all of endroutes COG settings matt? I also bagged about 100 pips today but am trying to minimise the repainting.

Darryl"



I was wodering how you made that 150 pips, are you trading multiple pairs, if so, which pairs and timeframe?

Wahnone.
  • #267
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:35am Jun 18, 2008 8:35am
Friends,
I think that currently the markets "misbehave". They refuse to feet our trading system.
The worse thing we can do is change our trading system, but, we can change our MM.
In trending markets, we have to let our profits run, and protect them using TS.
In ranging / non directional markets, like we currently have, we have to protect our profit by using fixed TP levels. Bank 2/3 of the position at a clear TP level (S&R, Pivot, Fibo, whatever), and let the last 1/3 run, with a SL at BE.
Once we see that the number of trades the last 1/3 is a winner increasing, we understand the markets are trending again.
BR
Dani M.
  • #268
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:18am Jun 18, 2008 9:18am
Quoting dan_mir
...
The worse thing we can do is change our trading system, but, we can change our MM.
In trending markets, we have to let our profits run, and protect them using TS.
...
Dani M.
ALL systems work nicely in trending markets, its how you deal with ranging conditions that are the make or break of most traders.

I think to avoid frustration with being "stopped out" you should instead consider Risk to Reward. If you have risked 20 pips and are up 40-50 in a position then you shouldn't accept a loss.

Then again I don't trade intraday due to the "noise" associated with smaller timeframes, liquidity issues around news releases causes huge spikes as brokers adjust their spreads, most retail intraday traders take a shoeing.

As Dani M says, the WORST thing you can do is change your system, especially after only 4 days just because you are frustrated by the small losses. Try trading the higher timeframes, then the frequency of trades is reduced and signals TEND to be more reliable.

Another thing is you have to get used to losing! NO system is a silver bullet, all we are exploiting is a TENDENCY within the market.

Study TheRealThing's blogspot site to see how a professional trades. He has only had probably 40% winners this year yet his equity is 50% up.

He did this by sticking to his rules and exploiting his edge. Note that he has used this method for years and occasionally has 6 week losing streaks, does he tinker with the rules or add more and more filters? Thought not.

Trading should be kept simple and repeatable, almost boring, like any BUSINESS, the rest is up to the trader.

Your "Holy Grail" is between your ears!

Keep at it!

cheers

Crom
  • #269
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:25am Jun 18, 2008 9:25am
Crom, all that you say rings true. I fully accept losses as part of playing the game. No problems there. And I don't recall anyone claiming this system was the holy grail. But the thing some of us are trying to figure out is how some on here claim to have made 100-150 pips on a day when the system's author said there were "no good trades." That's all.

Scott

Quoting Crom!
ALL systems work nicely in trending markets, its how you deal with ranging conditions that are the make or break of most traders.

I think to avoid frustration with being "stopped out" you should instead consider Risk to Reward. If you have risked 20 pips and are up 40-50 in a position then you shouldn't accept a loss.

Then again I don't trade intraday due to the "noise" associated with smaller timeframes, liquidity issues around news releases causes huge spikes as brokers adjust their spreads, most retail intraday traders take a shoeing.

As Dani M says, the WORST thing you can do is change your system, especially after only 4 days just because you are frustrated by the small losses. Try trading the higher timeframes, then the frequency of trades is reduced and signals TEND to be more reliable.

Another thing is you have to get used to losing! NO system is a silver bullet, all we are exploiting is a TENDENCY within the market.

Study TheRealThing's blogspot site to see how a professional trades. He has only had probably 40% winners this year yet his equity is 50% up.

He did this by sticking to his rules and exploiting his edge. Note that he has used this method for years and occasionally has 6 week losing streaks, does he tinker with the rules or add more and more filters? Thought not.

Trading should be kept simple and repeatable, almost boring, like any BUSINESS, the rest is up to the trader.

Your "Holy Grail" is between your ears!

Keep at it!

cheers

Crom
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #270
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:44am Jun 18, 2008 9:44am
Quoting traider
Are you using all of endroutes COG settings matt? I also bagged about 100 pips today but am trying to minimise the repainting.

Darryl
So far I've just been using Endroutes COG settings, but trading in a fairly discretionary manner. I've been using the system like a framework to help see the possible scenario, and not trading strictly to the rules. This would definitely explain the difference between my results and an EA.

I've been watching all of the pairs that Endroute mentioned in post 57: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=57

I've been taking signals mainly from the 1hr and 4hr charts, but also taking a lead from the 30min and 15min. In particular, I've been looking for trades where multiple timeframes are lining up. I think this has got me into some trades quite early.

When I recounted the pips it was actually around 130pips but US$1700 trading one lot. My trades yesterday (17th) were:
- Buy EURGBP, 0.7896 08:48, exit 0.7942 13:19 +46
- Buy USDJPY, 108.08 08:50, exit 108.16 13:19 +8
- Sell AUDUSD, 0.9404 08:51, exit 0.9411 13:18 -7
- Sell GBPUSD, 1.9558 09:35, exit 1.9506 13:15 +52
- Buy EURJPY, 167.58 09:41, exit 167.68 13:19 +10
- Buy EURUSD 1.5501 13:20, exit 1.5521 15:56 +20 (hit TP after going to bed, lucky trade though)

The times shown are from the ODL feed in MT4. I'm not sure if that's inline or ahead of GMT.

I still need to work on my exits as I'm being very discretionary and could have got more pips, but so far the system is working quite well for me. I'm currently programming the COG into another charting package I use, so I'll be able to do some better and more flexible backtesting, and try to really understand how much impact the COG repainting really has.

Endroute, do you have a list of trades which would have netted that 2200pips in a week? That would be very useful when doing the backtesting.

Kind Regards,
Matt.
  • #271
  • Jun 18, 2008 12:13pm Jun 18, 2008 12:13pm
Whoohaa.... this is Very simple yet powerfull systems thank's for sharing with us....
" Good things come to those who wait " ( bon jovi 'santa Fe' )
  • #272
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:27pm Jun 18, 2008 6:27pm
In an effort to appease, ok not really, those that feel the COG sucks because it repaints I have found a suitable alternative. I actually started looking at this a while ago as I have had a terrible time getting an EA that will alert me to trading setups and closes using the COG, I think most of you guys use the EAs to actually trade. So while I don't use an ea to place trades I do use them to alert me to trades since well it allows me to play more golf, hang out with the fam, sleep etc vs watching charts or worrying that my EA is gonna screw me in a trade.

Valid buy or long signals are when the parbolic is on the bottom and you have a cross up of the 5ema over the 13 and vice versa for sells or shorts. It is that simple. You will see a stochastic thead indi on the bottom I have been looking at using that to take trades ahead of the ema cross, in an effort to get more pips.

So my friends the choice is yours right now I am trading both and trying to write an indi that works for the parabolic needless to say I suck as a developer, guess thats why I am a trader eh.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 183 KB
  • #273
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:33pm Jun 18, 2008 6:33pm
yiha.. yeh sure buddy. Powerfull? remains to be seen.~
I think the yellow is good if you can catch a trade but I don't think there will be that many unless a big move happens also , as all can see if you trade live is that the repainting makes this an illusion of richers//I am trading he 1 hour above yeller but have not seen much action.
Also, I am experimenting with the Green on the 15 mn and increasing the kstd in increments as that has the same affect....I think if someone could put this on a server and do a bar by bar backtest... they could come up with some optimal settings for cog by currency.


thanks end route!! on the valid buys....I will add the parobolic to the system and see if gets better
  • #274
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:45pm Jun 18, 2008 6:45pm
Endroute i have look in to it in haste but it appears that if the start of a new parabolic sar trend that is the first 3 dots or so and then the ema cross just before or right after (that is before parsar or in the first 3 dots or so) it appears to be the best signal.

Also the parsar works better i think as a profit target just held the position untill the parsar change direction. just my thouts after a quick look.

Have tryed before with rsi 21 and 50 and take position when it cross the 0 line but i think you parsar works better.

Best regards
  • #275
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:02pm Jun 18, 2008 7:02pm
Yes, I agree....I like the parobolic as an additive. .. Also, I don't want to throw endroutes system out the window as I understand conceptually the idea of what the cog is supposed to do. I do, however think that there can be some modifications to get more trades as well as keep us out of trouble.
I had 9 trades on my test enviroment on the 15 mn (Kstd adjustments and green) and of the 5 losses all but one was a parobolic issue. The other I felt was my adjustment was off a fewtenths off or so. Therefore, I am hopeful I can get this moving in the right direction.
thanks again endroute!
The goal s/b 80 20 then we are all rich!.
  • #276
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:11pm Jun 18, 2008 7:11pm
try 1h instead it is the smallest in my opinion even that sometimes is small when u must cover the losses and the spread.

best regards
  • #277
  • Edited 8:11pm Jun 18, 2008 7:15pm | Edited 8:11pm
your right on the 1 hour. I like to test in the 15 o below because.Unless you get to the daily
typically signals are just chatter.
Endroute.. I am certain someone can program the psar in for you.
I did nt write the original but its an easy indicator.
I am not using the forums ea but if you post again someone,, I will put it in if no one else does. should take about 20 seconds.
double PSAR1 = iSAR(NULL,0, 0.02, 0.2,1);
  • #278
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:29pm Jun 18, 2008 7:29pm
Any chance we could cajole the stoch indi out of you endroute...pretty please.

The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #279
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:00pm Jun 18, 2008 8:00pm
Quoting traider
Any chance we could cajole the stoch indi out of you endroute...pretty please.

Here you go
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #MTF Stochastic Thread.ex4   6 KB | 855 downloads
  • #280
  • Jun 18, 2008 8:28pm Jun 18, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting endroute
Here you go
Cheers mate!
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
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