The 4H chart appears to be forming a bull flag pattern. Flags are continuation patterns, so that would mean after a choppy retracement we'd see a resumption of the uptrend. I'll post a pic when I get back home to my charts.
From a trader here on FF who posts on the news sections....
... Over the long run, however, the uptrend should continue as the widening interest rate spread will make U.S. denominated assets more attractive.
Chart watchers should note that the top in the USD/JPY at 108.58 stopped just short of the 108.61 (Feb. 14) top. The lower close sets up a reversal top, which could trigger the start of a break to 106.49. This would create a nice buying opportunity as the upside target remains 109.94 by June 20...
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=91978
Crikey! Now I'm reposting news releases and someone elses analysis.
My point is simply that dove is not some nut job out in left field by himself saying "the trend is up" while a retracement may or may not be taking place. Other respected and knowledgeable traders feel the same way. And you can take or leave their opinion as easily as you do doves.
If it's a difference of how you define trend or retracement, then whatever, call it what you want, and we'll do the same. The trend is clearly UP for now on any kind of longer TF, and retracements in either direction will always be part of the picture.
If you only trade a shorter TF, then yeah, the "trend" is changing all the time. Good luck with that...
Some people take genuine counter trend trades, and that's what they are. As long as that's understood, and the risk is managed, it can make you pips. Or eat your lunch. When that trend changes, it changes, but not today...
This really isn't all that complicated.
Smiling - Let me try to emphasized something that may help... There is no way that any trader in the world can predict what will happen from moment to moment on this market.... But one thing is for sure and that is the trend..... There are traders on this forum will verify what I am about to tell you..... There has been times I was caught in a heavy retrace of 100 pips or more and did not take a hit because my trade was in the trend and by the time I did close those trades I was 100 pips or more in profit..... You see, I trust the trend and what my indicators are telling me about the trend..... I trade only in the trend because if I should get caught in a retrace then I have nothing to worry about.
Lets take last night for instance...... I was long with the yen and short with the eur when that retrace hit on both currencies...... Now, was I worried and the answer is no, because my trades were in the trend...... To make a long story short I entered another trade on both currencies after the turn along with other trades and came out a big winner on all 4 trades...... All because I rode the trend.
I'm probably making this way harder on myself than I need to be.
I'll read the book 'thegunslinger' recommended and see if that helps clear my head a bit: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, by John J Murphy
Greatly appreciated all the responses!
When it comes to trends for working only on a daily bases it is best to use the 1 hour trend...... If you use a slow_k set at 20, 5, and 5 and a bollinger band set at 13 will help you tremendously..... With the BB set at 12 you can determine and calculate movement from band to band and even gather those pips..... I recommend the 1 hour chart only for these settings.
Thank you very much for sharing!
I have added a chart with this information and will be analyzing it the next few weeks as I trade!
