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Daily candle chart

  • #1,161
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:29am Jun 16, 2008 9:29am
Quoting peaches
Hi silver, hi all,

I think now its time to think going long for NZD/USD. There is a doji on the daily after 9 bullish days. So i will wait for price-development tomorrow London/New york and long. After minimum 50 % retracement (maybe upper channel line-100% retrace ?) I look for continuation of the downtrend
(incomplete bearish crow at the weekly).

Have a nice day/night.
hi peaches
be careful to this pattern
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  • #1,162
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:04pm Jun 16, 2008 10:04pm
hi,
ive been following this tread, and im a newbie. What do ppl think of ej outlook? anyone?
  • #1,163
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:15am Jun 17, 2008 3:15am
Quoting timetrader
hi,
ive been following this tread, and im a newbie. What do ppl think of ej outlook? anyone?

timetrader,

It looks quite promising !


BabeFX.
  • #1,164
  • Jun 17, 2008 4:51am Jun 17, 2008 4:51am
Quoting BabeFX
timetrader,

It looks quite promising !


BabeFX.
sitting for next big move
Lazy Forex
  • #1,165
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:02am Jun 17, 2008 6:02am
Quoting timetrader
hi,
ive been following this tread, and im a newbie. What do ppl think of ej outlook? anyone?
Hi Timetrader, on which timeframe ?
  • #1,166
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:03am Jun 17, 2008 7:03am
hi peaches
im looking at daily timeframe. And i am also watching ej on h4 indecision. if this occur does that mean price might be moving down or do i wait 4 the next strong bar, for confirmation? ur comments please? thanks
  • #1,167
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:20am Jun 17, 2008 11:20am
Quoting timetrader
hi peaches

im looking at daily timeframe. And i am also watching ej on h4 indecision. if this occur does that mean price might be moving down or do i wait 4 the next strong bar, for confirmation? ur comments please? thanks
i will not give you an "sell" or an "buy", because you will blame me, if i´m wrong. I try to give you, what i see (i´m also a newbie).

On monthly we see 3 pretty healthy bullish candles. This monthly broke bullish throu a major resistance line. This month candle has nearly no upper shadow, but tihs months i running, and maybe current price might form this upper shadow.

The weekly shows a bullish trend for the last 5 weeks. If i watch to the chart, i´m not able to say, where the longer trend ist, because price is not running from the upper left corner of the chart, to the lower right, or from lower left to uper right. Price goes up -down-up-down and so on. It would be nice, if price reaches lower right corner, but this is wishfull thinking, not the chart.

On the daily, there is a clear trend: up. Stochastics are pretty high, and everybody is expecting, that stochastics fall, but they are pretty high for the last 5 weeks. Why shouldn´t be a reason for staying this high for anorther 5 weeks ? The MACD is going down slowly, but it will come down, thats the cycle.

I don´t see a candle-stick pattern by now, but maybe at the end of this trading-session. IF there is a pattern i would not enter a trade short, because of this:

The point for me is, to wait for confirmation of the trend going down. I´m happy to catch the trend down. But i will not be the first, risking to catch the wrong train.

An example of USD/CAD for what i mean getting to early in a trade. So, if you take the ej trade, first decide, how many are you willing to lose, to put your stop-loss (About this hussin has a differnt view i think).
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  • #1,168
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:44am Jun 17, 2008 11:44am
Quoting silverheat
Hi hussin,

i read into the book with fibonacci and i tried it on NZD/USD (i think i know how u use the yellow lines now )
the 5 waves pattern with fibonacci extension:
the 2.618 and 1.618 extension lines are nearly on the same pricelevel, which is very good, if this pattern occurs.

however, did i used the right spot for starting to draw the extensions?
i thought there was a good point, because of the breakout of the little sideway channel.

the other problem might be with the point where we are now, it looks like a reversal pattern may occur (engulfing) and if it reverses the extension wouldnt be valid anymore?
or could it be a 7 waves pattern?

@Peaches: i agree with u, this looks like a perfect setup, i would short USD/CAD
silver,

i read in a book about fibo extensions, and if i understood this right, this works, if price has broken a channel. On NZD/USD price touched the lower part of the channel (74,50) but hasn´t gone through this. So if price breaks
this one, it might reach 0,72 (161,8 fibo extension).

Somebody correct me please, if i´m wrong...

Example for usd/jpy attached.
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  • #1,169
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:23pm Jun 17, 2008 12:23pm
for bear camp
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  • #1,170
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:27pm Jun 17, 2008 12:27pm
maybe with more probabiltiy
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  • #1,171
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:33pm Jun 17, 2008 12:33pm
what will say these small real bodies ??
fatigue of market
doubt of market
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  • #1,172
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:53pm Jun 17, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting hussin naiji
what will say these small real bodies ??
fatigue of market
doubt of market
hussin,

Looking at your Usd/Jpy chart I have drawn in a two day candle taken from the candle from yesterday & todays unclosed candle this is highlighted in the white oval. I would say that this represents caution as yesterdays open looks like being todays close.
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  • #1,173
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:16pm Jun 17, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting BabeFX
hussin,

Looking at your Usd/Jpy chart I have drawn in a two day candle taken from the candle from yesterday & todays unclosed candle this is highlighted in the white oval. I would say that this represents caution as yesterdays open looks like being todays close.
hi Babe
yes ,if close this candle (doji) with this same form .we must see a bearish pattern for USDYEN in the next days
  • #1,174
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:23pm Jun 17, 2008 1:23pm
Quoting hussin naiji
hi Babe
yes ,if close this candle (doji) with this same form .we must see a bearish pattern for USDYEN in the next days
of course we must attention to lower wick this doji because this observation shows to us that the bears are able to take prices down
  • #1,175
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:25pm Jun 17, 2008 1:25pm
i dont konw but a feeling say to me that we will see a large fall for USD/YEN
  • #1,176
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:32pm Jun 17, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting hussin naiji
i dont konw but a feeling say to me that we will see a large fall for USD/YEN
but a recommendation
in this time with current conditions i think its better that we trade in confined of major currencies no cross rates
  • #1,177
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:36pm Jun 17, 2008 1:36pm
dear peaches
if you have gone short or long AUDUSD
pls read http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy..._03062008.html
  • #1,178
  • Jun 17, 2008 1:41pm Jun 17, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting hussin naiji
but a recommendation
in this time with current conditions i think its better that we trade in confined of major currencies no cross rates

I like your comment on the usdjpy. What about the eurjpy based on the daily candles? A break through 168 and up to 170+?
BBB - Best from Bern Belgium
  • #1,179
  • Edited 2:44pm Jun 17, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting hussin naiji
dear peaches
if you have gone short or long AUDUSD
pls read http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy..._03062008.html
dear hussin, i´m out of this by now. I will read this tomorrow, to tired
by now. Big thanks for the link. technically it has to retrace and try to reach parity. This would mean USD very weak, which might be.

Have a look for daily and monthly dow :-) 4. time dow tries to break 50 % fibo line on the monthly. good times for jpy-bears.

have a look:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10417...nce-alert.html
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  • #1,180
  • Jun 17, 2008 2:23pm Jun 17, 2008 2:23pm
[quote=peaches;2056385]Hi silver, hi all,

I think now its time to think going long for NZD/USD. There is a doji on the daily after 9 bullish days. So i will wait for price-development tomorrow London/New york and long. After minimum 50 % retracement (maybe upper channel line-100% retrace ?) I look for continuation of the downtrend
(incomplete bearish crow at the weekly).

think going long for NZD/USD, when you think about continuation of downtrend?
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