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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,281
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:31pm Jun 15, 2008 8:31pm
C'mon Euro, spike up against the USD.
  • #8,282
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:33pm Jun 15, 2008 8:33pm
Quoting steelhead
" will be hit" I thought we trade probabilities not certainties. There are no guarantees about anything. I love it when folks make claims like "it will"
I'm not going to argue with you Steelhead and ...... smiling ...... I really don't care what you think because I had already proved myself a long time ago.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,283
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:35pm Jun 15, 2008 8:35pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Yes I did and I open at the 108.05 and took profit at the 108.39.
Excellent!

It is excellent that you made a profit but it is also excellent that I am presuming that you believe the USD/JPY will drop a bit before making another gain.

Anyway, congratulations on your trade.
  • #8,284
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:40pm Jun 15, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting steelhead
" will be hit" I thought we trade probabilities not certainties. There are no guarantees about anything. I love it when folks make claims like "it will"
Really, we all know your position on the matter. You dislike technical indicators. You think people should trade your way and your way only. If you want to post in this thread, how about you do so constructively? Instead of posting only to put others down. Make your own trade predictions and explain why. Show us why your system is so much better.

Right now, you're just annoying and will go on the ignore list if I see another post in a similar vein by you.
  • #8,285
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:43pm Jun 15, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting dove_alliance
And my position is using pivots and trends even though you do not agree, and that is OK.
It is not that I don't agree...we all have our different methodologies...back when I traded Mini_Dow futures Pivot Points proved to be very successful.

AS a rookie, with so much to learn, I am just keeping things very simple right now.

Once again; congrats. on your winning trade.
  • #8,286
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:43pm Jun 15, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting steelhead
" will be hit" I thought we trade probabilities not certainties. There are no guarantees about anything. I love it when folks make claims like "it will"
Me too, especially when it is certainly probable that that probability will almost certainly come to pass. My probable targets were all hit (long UJ, short EU) and now I am certainly out for the evening. Later Dove...

Chart is a UJ 10m chart showing price action at or around the pivots, end of story...
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #8,287
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:46pm Jun 15, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting ak4x
Me too, especially when it is certainly probable that that probability will almost certainly come to pass. My probable targets were all hit (long UJ, short EU) and now I am certainly out for the evening. Later Dove...

Chart is a UJ 10m chart showing price action at or around the pivots, end of story...
We will see you later and take care.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,288
  • Jun 15, 2008 8:54pm Jun 15, 2008 8:54pm
Ok then here you go.


1 I am going to look for an area to short the u/j around 108.50 area

2. I am looking for a place to long the nzd/usd area this evening. .7500 to .7450

3. Looking for a place to long the g/u and e/u would like to see them at 1.9400 and 1.5300 areas

4. I am also looking to buy the euro/cad

5. looking for a place to short the p/j around 212.00


these are the trades I am looking at this week. I will remain patient and wait for the market to come to me, not the other way around.
  • #8,289
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:02pm Jun 15, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting steelhead


these are the trades I am looking at this week. I will remain patient and wait for the market to come to me, not the other way around.
Great advice.

I am still guilty of not following that very simple rule from time to time but I am getting better at it.
  • #8,290
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:12pm Jun 15, 2008 9:12pm
Buy UJ 107.95 Close 108.33 +38pips
Attached Image
  • #8,291
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:19pm Jun 15, 2008 9:19pm
I can understand the general scepticism on pivot points. The pivots were hard to believe for me as a scientist - it simply seemed very illogical that this huge interbank market moves between some predefined support and resistance pivots...

However, the real question is not if they work but why?

In my opinion, the cause and effect have switched places. In computer age all these levels are calculated with 2-3 clicks, and with a couple more clicks every small and big market participant places limit and stop orders at these pivots creating congestion around them. This is similar to myriads of orders placed on approach to a strong trendline.

You might still think it is unreasonable for a free market to get hang-ups near some illogical pivots. I agree, and you can also claim that you don't like force of gravity, for example.

To succeed in Forex you must stay with the flow of the market while finding imperfections, not argue with it...
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #8,292
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:29pm Jun 15, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting Qwert
Buy UJ 107.95 Close 108.33 +38pips
Now, this is where my problem begins. I usually don't know where to enter again after this trade. Usually, I have to wait for another day to figure out when to enter again, if I see any possible trade. Since Dove earns a minimum of +100 pips/day, I wish he can help us explain(like today) how he decides on when to enter again - using pivots, supports, resistances, and retraces. I'm still learning upon chancing on Dove's posts just this month.
  • #8,293
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:40pm Jun 15, 2008 9:40pm
Quoting Qwert
Now, this is where my problem begins. I usually don't know where to enter again after this trade. Usually, I have to wait for another day to figure out when to enter again, if I see any possible trade. Since Dove earns a minimum of +100 pips/day, I wish he can help us explain(like today) how he decides on when to enter again - using pivots, supports, resistances, and retraces. I'm still learning upon chancing on Dove's posts just this month.
This is where I am at right now and that is watching the eur/jpy pair and the reason is because it is also on the up trend and making its way to the R1 and once it gets there it may be a possibility of a retrace back to the PP. As a general rule the eur/jpy and the usd/jpy pretty much follow suite. Not always, but most of the time it does. But with trend being up on both pairs then the possible of cutting and running with it on the up side is very probable and I am waiting to find out....... Winners with this market truly knows the meaning of patience.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,294
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:45pm Jun 15, 2008 9:45pm
By the way, the R1 on the eur/jpy is at the 167.01
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,295
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:55pm Jun 15, 2008 9:55pm
Thanks Dove for the explanation. I have also noticed before that I have to look at E/Y and sometimes E/U too. Since I noticed before there are times when E/U was dropping a large amount of pips than U/J, that may sometimes lead to selling of E/J. That in turn causes U/J to go down too. Do you think this assumption(not always) is valid?
  • #8,296
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:55pm Jun 15, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting dove_alliance

The Central Pivot is todays open at 17:00 ET which is 108.04 and is only 2 pips above the Pivot Point which has no significants for this session.

Dove my platform shows both the US session [email protected] and the Wellington [email protected] ....... 13 pips difference.

So just to confirm, you use US session close price during the week to calculate your pivots, but use wellington open price just for the start of the week ?

I wonder if this is why mondays [or sundays to some] take a bit of time to settle in and why some traders avoid the market until it get does get settled.

Dean.
perception is reality
  • #8,297
  • Edited 10:07pm Jun 15, 2008 9:57pm | Edited 10:07pm
Apologize for the off-topic, but there is no suitable thread for this
Trying to work on that patience I found a nice trading opportunity with Norwegian Kroner - posted a story here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=91803

The chart is EUR/NOK - when you want to take a break from USD
Attached Image
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #8,298
  • Jun 15, 2008 9:59pm Jun 15, 2008 9:59pm
Not sure how this dollar manages to maintain strength across the board ....
  • #8,299
  • Jun 15, 2008 10:05pm Jun 15, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting Qwert
Thanks Dove for the explanation. I have also noticed before that I have to look at E/Y and sometimes E/U too. Since I noticed before there are times when E/U was dropping a large amount of pips than U/J, that may sometimes lead to selling of E/J. That in turn causes U/J to go down too. Do you think this assumption(not always) is valid?
Take a look how both pairs unite in movements even though the usd/jpy is very slow responding..... On 3-17-08 the usd/jpy hit a low of 95.76 and has been climbing since...... On 3-20-08 the eur/jpy hit a low of 151.70 and it too has been climbing since......As of right now the usd/jpy has moved since March 17 a total of 1252 pips...... The eur/jpy has move since March 20 a total of 1506 pips...... I hope you go the picture.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,300
  • Jun 15, 2008 10:05pm Jun 15, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting Schminner
Not sure how this dollar manages to maintain strength across the board ....
It's temporary. I expected to see dollar stregthen between May and July.

That $150 bln stimulus package will work its way through like a quick fix on a junkie before it stimulates the Chinese economy. So, retail sales and employment numbers should improve before going down again.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
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